Exam 17: Time Series Analysis and Forecasting

A parameter of the exponential smoothing model that provides the weight given to the most recent time series value in the calculation of the forecast value is known as the _____.

Below are the first four values of a time series. Time Period Time Series Value 1 18 2 20 3 25 4 17 Using a four-period moving average, the forecasted value for period 5 is _____.

A group of observations measured at successive time intervals is known as a(n) _____.

Using exponential smoothing, the demand forecast for time period 10 equals the demand forecast for time period 9 plus ______.

The forecasting method that is appropriate when the time series has no significant trend, cyclical, or seasonal effect is _____.

Which of the following forecasting methods puts the least weight on the most recent time series value?

The following linear trend expression was estimated using a time series with 17 time periods. ​ T_t = 129.2 + 3.8t ​ The trend projection for time period 18 is _____.

A method of smoothing a time series that can be used to identify the combined trend/cyclical component is

A qualitative forecasting method that obtains forecasts through "group consensus" is known as the ______.

A seasonal pattern ______.

The time series pattern that exists when the data fluctuate around a constant mean is the _____.

The term "exponential smoothing" comes from ______.

For the following time series, you are given the moving average forecast. Time Period Time Series Value Moving Average For ecast 1 23 2 17 3 17 3 26 19 4 11 20 5 23 18 6 17 20 The mean squared error equals

Gradual shifting or movement of a time series to relatively higher or lower values over a longer period of time is called _____.

Regarding a regression model, all of the following can be negative EXCEPT the ______.

All of the following are true about a stationary time series EXCEPT ______.

Which of the following smoothing constants would make an exponential smoothing forecast equivalent to a naive forecast?

Below are the first two values of a time series and the first two values of the exponential smoothing forecast. Exp onential Smoothing Time Period (t) Time Series Value Forecast 1 18 18 2 22 18 If the smoothing constant equals .3, then the exponential smoothing forecast for time period 3 is _____.

In situations where you need to compare forecasting methods for different time periods, the most appropriate accuracy measure is ______.

A component of the time series model that results in the multi-period above-trend and below-trend behavior of a time series is a(n) _____.