Exam 10: Simulation Modeling

Use this information to answer the following questions. A supermarket stocks 150 apple pies each week.Weekly demand for apple pies ranges between 90 and 160 pies,all occurring with equal probability.Each unsold pie incurs an inventory carrying cost of $2.00.Unmet demand costs the supermarket $4.00 per pie. -Refer to the information above.Suppose that the manager wishes to examine the effect of different stocking levels on the average weekly total costs.In specific,the manager wishes to consider stocking levels of 90 pies,110 pies,130 pies,and 150 pies.Use Crystal Ball's Decision Table to find the stocking level that minimizes average weekly total costs.Use 1000 replications.

Joe Smith is a handyman who owns his own plumbing business.In a typical month,the number of service calls that he gets varies according to the following distribution: Number of Calls 15 16 17 18 19 Probability 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 His revenues per service call are normally distributed with a mean of $100 and a standard deviation of $20.His monthly expenses can range between a minimum of $1000 and a maximum of $1500,where all values between the minimum and maximum occur with equal likelihood. a.Use Crystal Ball to simulate Mr.Smith's monthly profits.Run 1000 replications of the model. b.What is the average monthly profit?

The technique of randomly generating values for unknown elements in a model using random sampling is known as ________.

Suppose that someone offers you a job at a casino in Las Vegas with the following two options: you can either earn $68.00 per night working behind a change counter,or you can serve cocktail drinks.If the latter is chosen,your earnings potential is based on the number of patrons frequenting the casino each night.You can make $100 in tips on a busy night,$75 in tips on a normal night,and $50 in tips on a slow night.The probabilities of a busy,normal,or slow night are,respectively,0.4,0.3,and 0.3. a.Which option maximizes your long-run average nightly earnings? Use Crystal Ball with 1000 replications. b.How would your answer change if you can earn $85 per night working behind a counter?

Use this information and output to answer the following questions. Rentals-R-Us specializes in 4WD car rentals.The number of rentals per month typically ranges between 10 and 50.You may assume equal probability for the number of rentals to assume any value in that range.The monthly operating costs for Rentals-R-Us can range anywhere from $2,000 to $4,000,with $3,000 being the most probable cost.Each rented vehicle generates $55 in revenues.You decide to build a simulation model in Crystal Ball to simulate monthly profits. A B 1 Rentals-R-Us 2 Number of car rentals 50 3 Rental per car \ 55 4 Monthly operating costs \ 2,000 5 Profit or loss \ 750 -Refer to the table.What is the appropriate equation for cell B5?

The uniform distribution can be discrete or continuous.

A queuing system has an arrival rate of 5 customers per hour and a service rate of 8 customers per hour.You decide to build a simulation model to describe the service time per customer.The best appropriate distribution to use is:

A simulation model may contain several output measures.

What distribution is appropriate for simulating the event of rolling a single die?

To establish a probability distribution,the relative frequency for each possible outcome of the variable is found by dividing the frequency of observation by the total number of observations.

If you simulate the event of tossing a coin 10 times,exactly 5 of the outcomes will be heads and 5 will be tails.

Use this information to answer the following questions. A call center receives an average of 20 calls per minute.You may assume that the numbers of calls are independent of each other,and that the average number of calls remains the same for each minute interval. -Refer to the information above.Suppose that the call center is interested in describing the time between successive telephone calls.You may assume that time has no effect on future telephone calls. a.What type of distribution describes the time between successive telephone calls? b.Use Crystal Ball to simulate the time between successive telephone calls.Use 1000 replications. c.What is the average time between successive telephone calls?

In Crystal Ball,probability distributions for input variables can be specified using either built-in functions or using Crystal Ball's menu.

What is the correct distribution for simulating the outcome of a single coin?