Exam 10: Project Analysis

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Why is sensitivity analysis less realistic than Monte Carlo simulation?

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In constructing a Monte Carlo simulation model of an investment project,one typically ignores possible interdependencies between variables.

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Firms often calculate a project's break-even sales using book earnings.However,break-even sales based on NPV is generally:

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Briefly discuss various real options associated with capital budgeting projects.

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The Solar Calculator Company proposes to invest $5 million in a new calculator-making plant.Fixed costs are $2 million per year.A solar calculator costs $5 per unit to manufacture and sells for $20 per unit.If the plant lasts for three years and the cost of capital is 12%,what is the break-even level of annual sales? (Assume that revenues and costs occur at the end of each year.Assume no taxes.)Round to the nearest 1,000 units.

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Monte Carlo simulation involves the following steps: I.Step 1: Modeling the project; II.Step 2: Specifying probabilities; III.Step 3: Simulating cash flows; IV.Step 4: Calculating present value

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Briefly discuss the usefulness of Monte Carlo simulation in project analysis.

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The following options associated with a project increase managerial flexibility: i.option to expand; II)option to abandon; III)production options; IV)timing options

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In most cases the present value break-even quantity is higher than the accounting break-even quantity.

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Firms with higher fixed costs tend to have higher degrees of operating leverage.

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Petroleum Inc.(PI)controls offshore oil leases.It is considering the construction of a deep-sea oil rig at a cost of $500 million.The price of oil is $100/bbl.and extraction costs are $50/bbl.PI expects prices and costs to remain constant.The rig will produce an estimated 1,200,000 bbl.per year forever.The risk-free rate is 10% per year,which is also the cost of capital.(Ignore taxes).Calculate the NPV to invest today.

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A project requires an initial investment in equipment of $90,000 and then requires an initial investment in working capital of $10,000 (at t = 0).You expect the project to produce sales revenue of $120,000 per year for three years.You estimate manufacturing costs at 60% of revenues.(Assume all revenues and costs occur at year-end,i.e.,t = 1,t = 2,and t = 3.)The equipment depreciates using straight-line depreciation over three years.At the end of the project,the firm can sell the equipment for $10,000 and also recover the investment in net working capital.The corporate tax rate is 30% and the cost of capital is 15%.Cash flows from the project are:

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Monte Carlo simulation is a tool intended to consider all possible combinations of variables.

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The option to wait is a type of abandonment option.

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The break-even point in terms of NPV is usually lower than the break-even point on an accounting basis.

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Project analysis,beyond simply calculating NPV,includes the following procedures: I.sensitivity analysis; II.break-even analysis; III.Monte Carlo simulation; IV.scenario analysis

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Projects with higher fixed costs have lower break-even points.

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Monte Carlo simulation should be used to get the distribution of NPV values for a project.

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Explain the usefulness of decision trees in project analysis.

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The NPV break-even point occurs when:

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