Exam 4: Security Analysis and Portfolio Theory

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You are attempting to value MNC Inc.,a conglomerate firm with three divisions.Each division is in a different industry,and you are provided with the following information: You are attempting to value MNC Inc.,a conglomerate firm with three divisions.Each division is in a different industry,and you are provided with the following information:    The corporate tax rate is 40% and all the industries are in their stable growth phases.MNC Inc.pays out 50% of its earnings as dividends and has no debt.The current annualized 6-month T-bill rate is 8%.What is your best estimate of earnings growth for MNC? Assume a market rate of return of 15%. The corporate tax rate is 40% and all the industries are in their stable growth phases.MNC Inc.pays out 50% of its earnings as dividends and has no debt.The current annualized 6-month T-bill rate is 8%.What is your best estimate of earnings growth for MNC? Assume a market rate of return of 15%.

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Based on the industry data,cost of equity for each division in the company can be calculated using CAPM Rf+(RmRf)βR _ { f } + \left( R _ { m } - R _ { f } \right) \beta .
The ROE for each division can be calculated using the price-to-earnings relationship

P0E1=1bkbr\frac { P _ { 0 } } { E _ { 1 } } = \frac { 1 - b } { k - b r }  Divizion  Cost of equity  ROE  A 16.75%19.58% B 18.50%21.33% C 15.00%10.00%\begin{array} { c c c } \text { Divizion } & \text { Cost of equity } & \text { ROE } \\\hline \text { A } & 16.75 \% & 19.58 \% \\\text { B } & 18.50 \% & 21.33 \% \\\text { C } & 15.00 \% & 10.00 \%\end{array} ROE of the firm is the weighted average of ROE's for different divisions of the firm,with earnings being the weights.
ROE of the firm = (211×19.58%)+(511×21.33%)(411×10%)\left( \frac { 2 } { 11 } \times 19.58 \% \right) + \left( \frac { 5 } { 11 } \times 21.33 \% \right) \left( \frac { 4 } { 11 } \times 10 \% \right) = 16.89%
Given the retention ratio of 0.5
The growth rate of the firm can be calculated using  (Retention ratio ×ROE ) \text { (Retention ratio } \times \mathrm { ROE } \text { ) } = 0.5 × 16.89% = 8.45%

If expectation theory holds then:

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D

An annual-coupon corporate bond has a 20-year maturity,an 11.5% coupon rate,and a par value of $1,000.The yield to maturity on the bond is 11%.An investor plans to buy the bond today and hold it to maturity,reinvesting the coupon payments at a 9% reinvestment rate. a. What is the purchase price of the bond? b. How much will the investor have at maturity?

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a.
Price of the bond is the present value of the cash flows from a bond.
It can be calculated using 115(1.11)1+115(1.11)2+115(1.11)3115(1.11)19+1115(1.11)20\frac { 115 } { ( 1.11 ) ^ { 1 } } + \frac { 115 } { ( 1.11 ) ^ { 2 } } + \frac { 115 } { ( 1.11 ) ^ { 3 } } \cdots \frac { 115 } { ( 1.11 ) ^ { 19 } } + \frac { 1115 } { ( 1.11 ) ^ { 20 } } = $1039.82
b.
If the coupon is reinvested at 9%,at the end of 20 years it grows to 115(1.09)19+115(1.09)18+115(1.09)17++115(1.09)2+115(1.09)1115 ( 1.09 ) ^ { 19 } + 115 ( 1.09 ) ^ { 18 } + 115 ( 1.09 ) ^ { 17 } + \ldots + 115 ( 1.09 ) ^ { 2 } + 115 ( 1.09 ) ^ { 1 } = $5,768.414
At the end of 20 years,the investor will have $1115 + $5,768.414 = $6,883.41

Everything else remaining equal,the duration of a coupon bond increases with maturity.

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Which of the following is an attribute of futures contract?

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The duration of a five year maturity 10% coupon bond will be higher than the duration of a five year maturity zero coupon bond.

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Studies show that stocks with high dividend yields and low P/E ratios earn excess returns.

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For each of the following assets,discuss all of the essential aspects of return,risk,and other factors,such as marketability,that investors should consider before the asset: a. three-month T-bills b. a 20-year, 8% coupon corporate bond selling for 65 (don't calculate the yield to maturity) c. municipal bonds d. a house in the suburbs e. a 20-year, 15% mortgage on a house in the suburbs (i.e, you would be the lender) f. U.S. Treasury 10 5/8s of 2015

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Your company,Solid State Gizmo,Inc.(SSG)has just been spun off by its parent firm,Octopus Industries,into a separate firm.SSG's pension fund,currently amounting to $250 million of assets,has also been spun off.SSG's board of directors has asked you to study proposals from a number of investment management firms,each offering to manage the pension fund.You are to give the board a report discussing the different styles of management that are available and making recommendations about which firms should be seriously considered and how SSG should instruct them to manage the pension fund if they are hired.Carefully describe the following: a. What is "passive" investment management? What kinds of things does a passive manager do? b. What factors would you look at to judge if one passive manager is better than another? c. If passive management is chosen, what instructions might you want to give the fund manager to tailor the optimal passive strategy for SSG's pension fund? d. What is "active" investment management? What kinds of things does an active manager do? e. How would you judge if one active manager is better than another? f. If active management is chosen, what instructions might you want to give the fund manager?

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Discuss (in list form)the risks associated with the following investment strategies. a. exact matching b. immunization c. portfolio insurance d. timing e. sector selection f. selecting mispriced options using the Black-Scholes formula

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You are examining the pricing of futures on the S&P 500.The spot level of the S&P 500 index is 250,and the riskless rate is 5%.It is January 1,2003,and the futures contract expires March 31,2003.The dividend yield by month of year is as follows: month: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec yield: 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% a. What is the theoretical price of this futures contract? b. Will this contract ever sell for less than the spot level of the index? If so, what is the earliest time at which this will happen? (Assume that the riskless rate and the dividend yield do not change between January 1, 2003, and March 31, 2003.) c. Assume now that this contract is correctly priced (= theoretical price) and that you have a portfolio of $50 million that you would like insured against market movements until March. If the portfolio has a beta of 1.25, how would you protect yourself against market risk? d. Assuming you protect yourself against market movements, what would your expected return be on the protected portfolio through March 1990?

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The Fed announces a tightening of monetary policy,leading to an increase in interest rates.Other things remaining equal,P/E ratios for stocks will decrease.

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Assume that the yield curve is currently flat at 12.5% and that you are considering the following four investments,all of which are currently selling for $100,for a holding period of four years: a series of one-year securities with coupon rate = yield to maturity; a four-year zero-coupon bond; a five-year bond that pays coupons of $12.50 per year; a perpetuity. a. What is the duration of each investment? b. Which investment would you choose for complete immunization? c. Calculate the rate of return on each investment if interest rates go up to 20%; do the same if interest rates go down to 5%. How does this relate to the duration measure in part a?

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Discuss whether the following statement is true or false: A GNMA (mortgage pool)security with a 20-year maturity should sell at a lower yield to maturity than a 20-year corporate bond,because the interest and principal of the GNMA security are government insured.

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Consider the following interest rates: r01 = 10%,r12 = 11%,r03 = 12%,r34 = 13%,and r05 = 14%,where r0t is the annual spot rate for period t and rt t+1 is the annual forward rate from period t to t + 1.What is the price of a $1,000 par bond with 5 years to maturity that has an annual coupon rate of 10% and annual coupon payments?

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Consider a futures contract on Japanese yen.Derive the relationship between the spot $/yen exchange rate and the futures contract price.(Hint: Consider an investment in the riskless asset of each country.)

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Consider the following spot rates: i01 = 6%,i02 = 7%,i03 = 7.5%,i04 = 8%,i05 = 9%. a. Based on the pure expectations theory, what does the market expect the one-year spot rate to be at the end of year 3? b. Based on the liquidity premium hypothesis, would you expect the actual one-year spot rate at the end of year 3 to be below the number you computed in part a? Why or why not? c. Based on the pure expectations hypothesis, what does the market expect the two-year (annualized) spot rate to be at the end of year 3? d. Can we say whether the yield to maturity on a four-year coupon bond will be above or below 8%? Explain.

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A high positive serial correlation in prices would imply market inefficiency.

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At the end of years 1 through10,an investor deposits $450 per year in a bank account paying 9% per year.At the end of years 11 through 20,she withdraws $450 per year.At the end of years 21 through 30,she deposits $450 per year.What is the account balance at the end of year 30?

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Suppose you are holding the following portfolio: 100 shares of XYZ stock plus a call option contract for 100 shares of XYZ with exercise price of 50 and a June expiration date plus a put option contract for 100 shares of XYZ with exercise price of 40 and a June expiration date. a. What will this portfolio be worth on expiration date if XYZ is at 35? At 45? At 55? b. Can this portfolio ever be worth less than $3500? Can it be worth more than $10,000? Explain. c. Answer the questions in part a and part b if your portfolio involves a short position in the call option contract instead of a long position. (I.e., you are long 100 shares of stock and the put contract, and short the call option contract.)

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