Question 1

A logarithmic straight-line trend equation should be used for forecasts when the time series is increasing by?

Accepted Answer

A)  Equal amounts 
B)  Increasing percents 
C)  Increasing amounts 
D)  Increasing or decreasing percents 
E)  Constant percents 
A)  Equal amounts 
B)  Increasing percents 
C)  Increasing amounts 
D)  Increasing or decreasing percents 
E)  Constant percents

Question 2

i. A typical monthly seasonal index of 107.0 indicates that sales (or whatever the variable is) are 107 percent above the annual average. ii. The ratio-to-moving average method removes the time series trend component, resulting in 12 numbers that are called specific seasonals.
iii. The total of the four typical quarterly indexes should equal 100.0.

Accepted Answer

A)  (i), (ii), and (iii) are all correct statements. 
B)  (i) and (ii) are correct statements but not (iii). 
C)  (i) and (iii) are correct statements but not (ii). 
D)  (ii) and (iii) are correct statements but not (i). 
E)  (i), (ii), and (iii) are all false statements. 
A)  (i), (ii), and (iii) are all correct statements. 
B)  (i) and (ii) are correct statements but not (iii). 
C)  (i) and (iii) are correct statements but not (ii). 
D)  (ii) and (iii) are correct statements but not (i). 
E)  (i), (ii), and (iii) are all false statements.

Question 3

i. Using the ratio-to-moving-average method, dividing the actual sales for a month by the typical seasonal for that month results in a figure that includes only trend, cycle and irregular fluctuations. This procedure is called deseasonalizing the sales. ii. The reason for deseasonalizing a sales series is to remove trend and cyclical fluctuations so that we can study seasonal fluctuations.
iii. Knowing the seasonal pattern in the form of indexes allows the retailer to deseasonalize sales.

Accepted Answer

A)  (i), (ii), and (iii) are all correct statements. 
B)  (i) and (ii) are correct statements but not (iii). 
C)  (i) and (iii) are correct statements but not (ii). 
D)  (ii) and (iii) are correct statements but not (i). 
E)  (i), (ii), and (iii) are all false statements. 
A)  (i), (ii), and (iii) are all correct statements. 
B)  (i) and (ii) are correct statements but not (iii). 
C)  (i) and (iii) are correct statements but not (ii). 
D)  (ii) and (iii) are correct statements but not (i). 
E)  (i), (ii), and (iii) are all false statements.

Question 4

i. A typical monthly seasonal index of 107.0 indicates that sales (or whatever the variable is) are 7 percent above the annual average. ii. For a quarterly time series, the initial step, using the ratio-to-moving average method, is to remove the seasonal components from the time series using a 3-month centered moving average.
iii. In the final step, using the ratio-to-moving-average method on quarterly data, the total of the modified means should theoretically be equal to 400 because the average of should be 100.

Accepted Answer

A)  (i), (ii), and (iii) are all correct statements. 
B)  (i) and (ii) are correct statements but not (iii). 
C)  (i) and (iii) are correct statements but not (ii). 
D)  (ii) and (iii) are correct statements but not (i). 
E)  (i), (ii), and (iii) are all false statements. 
A)  (i), (ii), and (iii) are all correct statements. 
B)  (i) and (ii) are correct statements but not (iii). 
C)  (i) and (iii) are correct statements but not (ii). 
D)  (ii) and (iii) are correct statements but not (i). 
E)  (i), (ii), and (iii) are all false statements.

Question 5

A plastics manufacturing performed a quarterly time series analysis for demands over the last five years (periods 1 through 20). The analysis resulted in the following trend equation and seasonal indexes:   = 920.0 + 22.6 t
  Using the trend line question and the seasonal indexes, predict demand for the third period of the next year, i.e., period 23.

Accepted Answer

A)  1439.8 
B)  519.8 
C)  629.0 
D)  1195.2 
E)  1742.2 
A)  1439.8 
B)  519.8 
C)  629.0 
D)  1195.2 
E)  1742.2

Question 6

If the exports ($ millions) for the period 1997 through 2001 were $878, $892, $864, $870, and $912 respectively, what are these values called?

Accepted Answer

A)  Moving average 
B)  Linear trend equation 
C)  Logarithmic trend equation 
D)  Time series 
E)  Secular Trend 
A)  Moving average 
B)  Linear trend equation 
C)  Logarithmic trend equation 
D)  Time series 
E)  Secular Trend

Question 7

What time series component was exemplified during the 1980s when the World economy enjoyed a period of prosperity?

Accepted Answer

A)  Irregular 
B)  Cyclical 
C)  Trend 
D)  Seasonal 
E)  Episodic 
A)  Irregular 
B)  Cyclical 
C)  Trend 
D)  Seasonal 
E)  Episodic

Question 8

i. In a time series analysis, the letter "a" in the linear trend equation, is the value of   when t = 0. ii. In the linear trend equation, t is any value that corresponds with a time period, i.e., month or quarter.
iii. If the sales, production or other data over a period of time tend to approximate a straight-line trend, the equation developed by the least squares method cannot be used to forecast sales for a future period.

Accepted Answer

A)  (i), (ii), and (iii) are all correct statements. 
B)  (i) and (ii) are correct statements but not (iii). 
C)  (i) and (iii) are correct statements but not (ii). 
D)  (ii) and (iii) are correct statements but not (i). 
E)  (i), (ii), and (iii) are all false statements. 
A)  (i), (ii), and (iii) are all correct statements. 
B)  (i) and (ii) are correct statements but not (iii). 
C)  (i) and (iii) are correct statements but not (ii). 
D)  (ii) and (iii) are correct statements but not (i). 
E)  (i), (ii), and (iii) are all false statements.

Question 9

Listed below is the net sales in $ million for Home Depot Inc., and its subsidiaries from 1994 to 2003.   Using the printout below, what are the estimated sales for 2008?

Accepted Answer

A)  $90,618.6 Million 
B)  $97,082.5 Million 
C)  $84,154.7 Million 
D)  $103,546.4 Million 
E)  $71,227.0 Million 
A)  $90,618.6 Million 
B)  $97,082.5 Million 
C)  $84,154.7 Million 
D)  $103,546.4 Million 
E)  $71,227.0 Million

Question 10

i. The moving average method averages out cyclical (C) and irregular (I) components. ii. To apply the moving average method to a time series, the data should follow a linear trend and have a definite rhythmic pattern of fluctuations that repeat (say, every three years).
iii. Sales, production and other economic and business series usually have periods of oscillation that are of equal length or identical amplitudes.

Accepted Answer

A)  (i), (ii), and (iii) are all correct statements. 
B)  (i) and (ii) are correct statements but not (iii). 
C)  (i) and (iii) are correct statements but not (ii). 
D)  (ii) and (iii) are correct statements but not (i). 
E)  (i), (ii), and (iii) are all false statements. 
A)  (i), (ii), and (iii) are all correct statements. 
B)  (i) and (ii) are correct statements but not (iii). 
C)  (i) and (iii) are correct statements but not (ii). 
D)  (ii) and (iii) are correct statements but not (i). 
E)  (i), (ii), and (iii) are all false statements.

A logarithmic straight-line trend equation should be used for forecasts when the time series is increasing by?

If the exports ($ millions) for the period 1997 through 2001 were $878, $892, $864, $870, and $912 respectively, what are these values called?

What time series component was exemplified during the 1980s when the World economy enjoyed a period of prosperity?

Listed below is the net sales in $ million for Home Depot Inc., and its subsidiaries from 1994 to 2003. Using the printout below, what are the estimated sales for 2008?

What Is Statistics

Describing Data: Frequency Tables, Frequency Distributions, and Graphic Presentation

Describing Data: Numerical Measures

A Survey of Probability Concepts

Discrete Probability Distributions

Continuous Probability Distributions

Sampling Methods and the Central Limit Theorem

Estimation and Confidence Intervals

One-Sample Tests of Hypothesis

Two-Sample Tests of Hypothesis

Analysis of Variance

Linear Regression and Correlation

Multiple Regression and Correlation Analysis

Chi-Square Applications

Index Numbers

An Introduction to Decision Theory

Filters

Exam 16: Time Series and Forecasting

A logarithmic straight-line trend equation should be used for forecasts when the time series is increasing by?

If the exports ($ millions) for the period 1997 through 2001 were $878, $892, $864, $870, and $912 respectively, what are these values called?

What time series component was exemplified during the 1980s when the World economy enjoyed a period of prosperity?

Listed below is the net sales in $ million for Home Depot Inc., and its subsidiaries from 1994 to 2003. Using the printout below, what are the estimated sales for 2008?

What Is Statistics

Describing Data: Frequency Tables, Frequency Distributions, and Graphic Presentation

Describing Data: Numerical Measures

A Survey of Probability Concepts

Discrete Probability Distributions

Continuous Probability Distributions

Sampling Methods and the Central Limit Theorem

Estimation and Confidence Intervals

One-Sample Tests of Hypothesis

Two-Sample Tests of Hypothesis

Analysis of Variance

Linear Regression and Correlation

Multiple Regression and Correlation Analysis

Chi-Square Applications

Index Numbers

An Introduction to Decision Theory

Filters