Exam 10: Measuring Exposure to Exchange Rate Fluctuations

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According to the text, currency variability levels ____ perfectly stable over time, and currency correlations ____ perfectly stable over time.

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Which of the following is not true regarding currency correlations?

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Because creditors may prefer that firms maintain low exposure to exchange rate risk, exchange rate movements may cause earnings to be more volatile, and because investors may prefer corporations to perform hedging for them, exchange rate risk is probably relevant.

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____ exposure is the degree to which the value of contractual transactions can be affected by exchange rate fluctuations.

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The following regression model was run by a U.S.-based MNC to determine its degree of economic exposure as it relates to the Australian dollar and Sudanese dinar (SDD): PCFt = a0 + a1et + μ\mu t Where the term on the left-hand side is the percentage change in inflation-adjusted cash flows measured in the firm's home currency over period t, and et is the percentage change in the exchange rate of the currency over period t. The regression was run over two subperiods for each of the two currencies, with the following results:  The following regression model was run by a U.S.-based MNC to determine its degree of economic exposure as it relates to the Australian dollar and Sudanese dinar (SDD): PCF<sub>t</sub> = a<sub>0</sub> + a<sub>1</sub>e<sub>t</sub> +  \mu <sub>t</sub> Where the term on the left-hand side is the percentage change in inflation-adjusted cash flows measured in the firm's home currency over period t, and e<sub>t</sub> is the percentage change in the exchange rate of the currency over period t. The regression was run over two subperiods for each of the two currencies, with the following results:   Based on these results, which of the following statements is probably not true? Based on these results, which of the following statements is probably not true?

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Assume that the Japanese yen is expected to depreciate substantially over the next year. The U.S.-based MNC has a subsidiary in Japan, where its costs exceed revenues. The overall value of MNC will ____ because of the yen's depreciation.

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Diz Co. is a U.S.-based MNC with net cash inflows of euros and net cash inflows of Swiss francs. These two currencies are highly correlated in their movements against the dollar. Yanta Co. is a U.S.-based MNC that has the same level of net cash flows in these currencies as Diz Co. except that its euros represent net cash outflows. Which firm has a higher exposure to exchange rate risk?

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One argument why exchange rate risk is irrelevant to corporations is that shareholders can deal with this risk individually.

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Translation exposure reflects:

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Assume that your firm is an importer of Mexican chairs denominated in pesos. Your competition is mainly U.S. producers of chairs. You wish to assess the relationship between the percentage change in its stock price (SPt) and the percentage change in the peso's value relative to the dollar (PESOt). SPt is the dependent variable. You apply the regression model to an earlier subperiod and a more recent subperiod. In the recent subperiod, you increased your importing volume. You should expect that the regression coefficient in the PESOt variable would be ____ in the first subperiod and ____ in the second subperiod.

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Exhibit 10-2 Volusia, Inc. is a U.S.-based exporting firm that expects to receive payments denominated in both euros and Canadian dollars in one month. Based on today's spot rates, the dollar value of the funds to be received is estimated at $500,000 for the euros and $300,000 for the Canadian dollars. Based on data for the last fifty months, Volusia estimates the standard deviation of monthly percentage changes to be 8 percent for the euro and 3 percent for the Canadian dollar. The correlation coefficient between the euro and the Canadian dollar is 0.30. -Refer to Exhibit 10-2. Assuming an expected percentage change of 0 percent for each currency during the next month, what is the maximum one-month loss of the currency portfolio? Use a 95 percent confidence level and assume the monthly percentage changes for each currency are normally distributed.

(Multiple Choice)
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A U.S. MNC has the equivalent of $1 million cash outflows in each of two highly negatively correlated currencies. During ____ dollar cycles, cash outflows are ____.

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Economic exposure can affect:

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If a U.S. firm's sales in Australia are much greater than its cost of goods sold in Australia, the appreciation of the Australian dollar has a ____ impact on the firm's ____.

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Some MNCs are subject to economic exposure without being subject to transaction exposure.

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Exhibit 10-1 Cerra Co. expects to receive 5 million euros tomorrow as a result of selling goods to the Netherlands. Cerra estimates the standard deviation of daily percentage changes of the euro to be 1 percent over the last 100 days. Assume that these percentage changes are normally distributed. Use the value-at-risk (VAR) method based on a 95% confidence level for the following question(s). -Refer to Exhibit 10-1. What is the maximum one-day loss if the expected percentage change of the euro tomorrow is 0.5%?

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Economic exposure refers to:

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Which of the following is not true regarding economic exposure?

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Lampon Co. is a U.S. firm that has a subsidiary in Hong Kong that produces light fixtures and sells them to Japan, denominated in Japanese yen. Its subsidiary pays all of its expenses, including the cost of goods sold, in U.S. dollars. The Hong Kong dollar is pegged to the U.S. dollar. If the Japanese yen appreciates against the U.S. dollar, the Hong Kong subsidiary's revenue will ____, and its expenses will ____.

(Multiple Choice)
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Firms with more in foreign costs than in foreign revenues will be favorably affected by a stronger foreign currency.

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