Question 1

Given the following data, compute the total error (sum of the error terms).

Accepted Answer

The answer of Given the following data, compute the total...

Question 2

Consider the following data.
  Using simple exponential smoothing with α = .2, determine the forecast error for time period 1.

Accepted Answer

The answer of Consider the following data.
  Using simple...

Question 3

The linear regression trend model was applied to a time series sales data set based on the last 24 months' sales. The following partial computer output was obtained.
  Write the prediction equation.

Accepted Answer

The answer of The linear regression trend model was applied...

Question 4

The ________ component of a time series reflects the long-run decline or growth in a time series.

Accepted Answer

A)  trend 
B)  seasonal 
C)  cyclical 
D)  irregular

Question 5

Multiplicative decompositions assume that time series components remain essentially constant over time.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 6

Consider the following data and calculate S₂ using simple exponential smoothing and α = .3.

Accepted Answer

The answer of Consider the following data and calculate S₂...

Question 7

Consider the following data. Calculate S₅ using simple exponential smoothing if S₃ = 19.064 and α = .2.

Accepted Answer

The answer of Consider the following data. Calculate S₅...

Question 8

A sequence of values of some variable or composite of variables taken at successive, uninterrupted time periods is called a

Accepted Answer

A)  least squares (linear) trend line. 
B)  moving average. 
C)  cyclical component. 
D)  time series. 
E)  seasonal factor.

Question 9

A ________ index is a weighted aggregate price index. It is accurate in its calculation of periodic prices. However, when using this index, it is difficult to compare the prices in different time periods.

Accepted Answer

A)  Paasche 
B)  first-order autocorrelation 
C)  Laspeyres 
D)  cyclical (seasonal)

Question 10

Given the following data, compute the total error (sum of the error terms).

Accepted Answer

The answer of Given the following data, compute the total...

Question 11

Using the price of the following food items, compute the aggregate index numbers for the four types of cheese. Let 1990 be the base year for this market basket of goods.

Accepted Answer

The answer of Using the price of the following food...

Question 12

A ________ index is most useful if the base quantities provide a reasonable representation of consumption patterns in succeeding time periods.

Accepted Answer

A)  Paasche 
B)  weighted aggregate 
C)  Laspeyres 
D)  cyclical (seasonal)

Question 13

Suppose that the unadjusted seasonal factor for the month of April is 1.10. The sum of the 12 months' unadjusted seasonal factor values is 12.18. The normalized (adjusted) seasonal factor value for April

Accepted Answer

A)  is larger than 1.1. 
B)  is smaller than 1.1. 
C)  is equal to 1.1. 
D)  cannot be determined with the information provided.

Question 14

The ________ component of a time series refers to the erratic time series movements that follow no recognizable or regular pattern.

Accepted Answer

A)  trend 
B)  seasonal 
C)  cyclical 
D)  irregular

Question 15

The linear regression trend model was applied to a time series of sales data based on the last 16 months of sales. The following partial computer output was obtained.
  What is the predicted value of y when t = 17?

Accepted Answer

The answer of The linear regression trend model was applied...

Question 16

All of the following are forecasting methods except

Accepted Answer

A)  Holt-Winters double exponential smoothing. 
B)  simple exponential smoothing. 
C)  time series regression. 
D)  MAD autocorrelation.

Question 17

Periodic patterns in time series that repeat themselves within a calendar year or less are referred to as ________.

Accepted Answer

A)  constant variations 
B)  cyclical variations 
C)  seasonal variations 
D)  regular variations

Question 18

Simple exponential smoothing is an appropriate method for prediction purposes when there is a significant trend present in a time series.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 19

A ________ index is a weighted aggregate price index that uses the base period quantities as weights in all succeeding time periods.

Accepted Answer

A)  Paasche 
B)  first-order autocorrelation 
C)  Laspeyres 
D)  cyclical (seasonal)

Question 20

Three criteria used to compare two forecasting methods are the mean absolute deviation, the mean squared deviation, and the mean absolute percentage error.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Exam 17: Time Series Forecasting and Index Numbers

Given the following data, compute the total error (sum of the error terms).

Consider the following data. Using simple exponential smoothing with α = .2, determine the forecast error for time period 1.

The linear regression trend model was applied to a time series sales data set based on the last 24 months' sales. The following partial computer output was obtained. Write the prediction equation.

The ________ component of a time series reflects the long-run decline or growth in a time series.

Multiplicative decompositions assume that time series components remain essentially constant over time.

Consider the following data and calculate S2 using simple exponential smoothing and α = .3.

Consider the following data. Calculate S5 using simple exponential smoothing if S3 = 19.064 and α = .2.

A sequence of values of some variable or composite of variables taken at successive, uninterrupted time periods is called a

A ________ index is a weighted aggregate price index. It is accurate in its calculation of periodic prices. However, when using this index, it is difficult to compare the prices in different time periods.

Given the following data, compute the total error (sum of the error terms).

Using the price of the following food items, compute the aggregate index numbers for the four types of cheese. Let 1990 be the base year for this market basket of goods.

A ________ index is most useful if the base quantities provide a reasonable representation of consumption patterns in succeeding time periods.

Suppose that the unadjusted seasonal factor for the month of April is 1.10. The sum of the 12 months' unadjusted seasonal factor values is 12.18. The normalized (adjusted) seasonal factor value for April

The ________ component of a time series refers to the erratic time series movements that follow no recognizable or regular pattern.

The linear regression trend model was applied to a time series of sales data based on the last 16 months of sales. The following partial computer output was obtained. What is the predicted value of y when t = 17?

All of the following are forecasting methods except

Periodic patterns in time series that repeat themselves within a calendar year or less are referred to as ________.

Simple exponential smoothing is an appropriate method for prediction purposes when there is a significant trend present in a time series.

A ________ index is a weighted aggregate price index that uses the base period quantities as weights in all succeeding time periods.

Three criteria used to compare two forecasting methods are the mean absolute deviation, the mean squared deviation, and the mean absolute percentage error.

Consider the following data and calculate S₂ using simple exponential smoothing and α = .3.

Consider the following data. Calculate S₅ using simple exponential smoothing if S₃ = 19.064 and α = .2.