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Haru Was Tossing a Fair Coin and Had Gotten Tails

Question 42

Multiple Choice

Haru was tossing a fair coin and had gotten tails four times in a row. He said, "I think I am due to get heads on the next toss." Haru's incorrect judgment is MOST related to:


A) committing the conjunction fallacy, which is biasing his estimate of probability.
B) hindsight bias based on the outcome of the last four tosses.
C) misunderstanding randomness and independent events and using the representativeness heuristic.
D) illusory correlation and his knowledge that on the last four tosses he got the same result, leading him to experience confirmation bias.

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