Question 1

Sean goes to a graphologist, whose analysis of Sean's handwriting indicates that he is introverted. Sean concludes that as an introvert he should not join a social group because he will not likely enjoy it. What is the BEST analysis of Sean's decision?

Accepted Answer

A)  The graphologist is using a valid cue, so Sean can trust the analysis to provide him with useful information. 
B)  Sean may be making a good decision, but he should corroborate the analysis with an analysis from another graphologist. 
C)  Sean should not use the handwriting analysis from the graphologist to make a decision, because research has shown that the idea that graphology works is a misconception. 
D)  Because graphology has been shown to lead to reliable and valid personality judgments, Sean is making a good decision.

Question 2

Haru was tossing a fair coin and had gotten tails four times in a row. He said, "I think I am due to get heads on the next toss." Haru's incorrect judgment is MOST related to:

Accepted Answer

A)  committing the conjunction fallacy, which is biasing his estimate of probability. 
B)  hindsight bias based on the outcome of the last four tosses. 
C)  misunderstanding randomness and independent events and using the representativeness heuristic. 
D)  illusory correlation and his knowledge that on the last four tosses he got the same result, leading him to experience confirmation bias.

Question 3

Lauren got an A on her math test, better than she expected based on her SAT math score of 500 and her C average in math courses overall. She said, "Wow, I am really getting better at math. I think I am a B math student now." Lauren has MOST likely made the thinking error of _____ while judging her math ability.

Accepted Answer

A)  misuse of the availability heuristic 
B)  believing in the law of large numbers 
C)  committing the conjunction fallacy 
D)  ignoring regression to the mean

Question 4

The law of large numbers maintains or implies that:

Accepted Answer

A)  larger random samples will be more representative than smaller samples. 
B)  over the long run, very low and very high scores or values will often occur. 
C)  a larger number of researchers is better than a smaller number. 
D)  regression to the mean is not likely to occur with small samples.

Question 5

Which statement is TRUE about the popular idea about the "hair of the dog that bit you," meaning that having another drink as a good way to cure a hangover?

Accepted Answer

A)  It is an example of using a nudge. 
B)  It has been shown to be fairly effective. 
C)  It is an example of using the availability heuristic. 
D)  It is a little like using a homeopathic cure.

Question 6

In the 1980s and 1990s, many people became concerned that Satanic cults were abducting and abusing people, although no good evidence supported this claim. Some clinicians began to conduct workshops warning other clinicians about the dangers of Satanic ritual abuse and explaining how to identify repressed memories of Satanic ritual abuse they might observe. After much media attention, some clinicians began to identify many more cases of repressed memory of Satanic ritual abuse. The MOST likely reason for this great increase is that clinicians were making judgments based on the:

Accepted Answer

A)  representativeness heuristic. 
B)  effects of contamination in their thinking. 
C)  availability heuristic. 
D)  anchoring and adjustment heuristic.

Exam 11: Judgment, Decision Making, and Types of Thinking

Sean goes to a graphologist, whose analysis of Sean's handwriting indicates that he is introverted. Sean concludes that as an introvert he should not join a social group because he will not likely enjoy it. What is the BEST analysis of Sean's decision?

Haru was tossing a fair coin and had gotten tails four times in a row. He said, "I think I am due to get heads on the next toss." Haru's incorrect judgment is MOST related to:

The law of large numbers maintains or implies that:

Which statement is TRUE about the popular idea about the "hair of the dog that bit you," meaning that having another drink as a good way to cure a hangover?