Exam 4: Estimating and Forecasting Demand

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If a study examines several different markets at the same time,and compares outcomes with conditions in each market,it is specifically using:

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Which of the following is true of the t-statistic?

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Jim Bradley is the manager of a bakery,located on a major intersection in a suburban area of Midwestern city.He has been collecting data on sales at his store for the past year.Recently,he has developed a model that he thinks explains sales at the bakery.Unfortunately,he never had a course in statistics,and isn't sure that he has done his computing correctly and asks for your opinion. According to Jim,weekly sales at the Bradley Bakery can be described by the equation: Q = 5,000 - 1,000P + 10A + 1.5Y - 400Pc - 25Ac, where Q denotes unit sales,P is the firm's price,A is the firm's advertising spending,Y is the per capita income in the local area,Pc is the average price charged by a nearby competing bakery and Ac is the competitor's advertising spending.Jim didn't keep the printout from the analysis.He only kept the equation,which he is eager to use to plan for his likely sales in the next few months. What advice would you give Jim on using the equation?

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Without the regression's statistical output,Jim's equation is highly problematic.It is impossible to test the reliability or statistical significance,of any of the results.Specifically,there is no information on t-ratios to test the significance of any of the independent variables.The R2 has not been computed to test the significance of the regression as a whole.There is no standard error of the regression to compute confidence intervals for the dependent variable.Furthermore,it is possible that Pc and Ac are collinear.A competing firm might increase advertising while decreasing price at the same time.In short,Jim cannot use the results with any confidence.

The following table shows the predicted and the actual sales of a firm in the quarters of a year. Table 4-1 The following table shows the predicted and the actual sales of a firm in the quarters of a year. Table 4-1    -Calculate the sum of squared errors of the observations from Table 4-1. -Calculate the sum of squared errors of the observations from Table 4-1.

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A regression analysis is said to suffer from multicollinearity when:

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A regression analysis is assumed to be free of serial correlation,if the Durbin-Watson statistic for the regression is approximately equal to _____.

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A response bias occurs when:

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In contrast to simple regression,multiple regression considers:

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A firm has prepared two different models to be used for forecasting.One has a fairly large root mean squared error (RMSE),the other has a much smaller RMSE.Which forecast would you expect to give the more accurate prediction? Explain.

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What role do leading indicators play in forecasting? What are some of their limitations?

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(a)If a forecaster is analyzing sales of gasoline in a large city during the next two years,which time-series component is likely to be most important?

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Is it always worthwhile gathering more information about customer needs and preferences?

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A regression coefficient measures:

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What is regression analysis,and what are the major steps in using it?

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Which of the following is true of barometric models?

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Which of the following can be used to correct for seasonality in time-series modeling?

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If the sample variance of a set of observations is 225,its sample standard deviation is equal to _____.

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Carefully explain why adjusted R2 is always less than R2.

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An economic variable's trend over time indicates:

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What are the major advantages and drawbacks of using controlled customer experiments to determine demand?

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