Exam 4: Estimating and Forecasting Demand

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An equation's root mean squared error is:

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Computing the F-statistic allows one to:

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How can regression analysis use uncontrolled data to estimate demand?

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Business cycles are:

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The standard error of the regression:

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You have taken over your parents' small dry-cleaning shop,and are interested in forecasting demand for your services.Your parents never quite got around to trying to measure demand,but they have kept extensive price and sales records.Using this data,you employ multiple regression techniques and estimate the following equation: Q = 0.95 − 0.6P + 0.9Y + 0.25Pc, where Q is the number of shirts laundered per week,P is the price in dollars of a laundered shirt,Y is the per capita income in the local area,and Pc is the price charged by another dry cleaner two blocks away.The number of observations is 39 (i.e. ,nine months of weekly data).The equation's R2 is 0.85,the standard error of the estimate is 200,and the standard errors for the variables are 0.45,0.15,0.39,and 0.18 respectively. (a)Interpret the demand equation and discuss the associated regression statistics.

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Which of the following is true of uncontrolled market data?

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What are the major advantages and drawbacks of using controlled market studies to estimate demand?

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What role does uncertainty play in forecasting? Explain.

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A time-series model attempts to identify:

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Rail Tours,Inc.sells packaged tours on rail lines,including gourmet meals and a reserved bed.The most popular tours are in the autumn,when foliage colors are at their peak.The overnight package for Saturday and Sunday morning are especially heavily booked.A market survey firm has just completed a study in which they conclude that if the package cost is $200 per couple,then Rail Tours can expect to sell 400 spaces on a typical Saturday.If the price is raised to $225,then unit sales will drop to 390.If the price is raised further to $250,unit sales drop to 380. (a)From the data given,write down the demand equation and determine its intercepts.Are there any precautions needed when operating at the extreme ends of the demand curve?

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What are the different categories into which a time-series pattern can be broken? Briefly describe each.

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How would a forecaster determine which functional form of an equation to use to predict a variable?

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Calculate the degrees of freedom in a regression equation if the number of observations is 6 and the number of coefficients in the equation is 2.

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What are the two main categories of forecasting models? How do they differ?

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Liza is a manager of a leading soft drink manufacturing firm.Liza uses 10 months data and estimates the following demand equation: Q = 10 - 0.25P + 1.5Y + 0.5PR (2)( 0.50)(0.75)(0.17) where P is the price of the soft drink manufactured by Liza's firm,Y refers to household per capita income,and PR is the price of a rival soft drink manufacturing firm.The standard errors of the coefficients are given in the parentheses.Which of the explanatory variables have significant effects on the demand for soft drink manufactured by Liza's firm? Explain. (At 95% confidence level,the relevant t-statistic for 6 degrees of freedom is 1.94)

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The equation Q = a + bt + ct2 represents:

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What are the major sources of information that can be used to estimate demand? What are the major benefits and drawbacks of each?

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Why is identification a problem in demand estimation? What management errors might occur if a demand relationship is not properly identified?

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Heteroscedasticity occurs when:

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