Exam 18: Decision Theory and the Normal Distribution

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In determining the EOL with the normal distribution,as D increases,the unit normal loss integral,N(D),also increases.

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The unit normal loss integral can be used to compute EOL.

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Jack Spratt makes candlesticks.His fixed cost is $5,000,variable cost is $3.50,and selling price,$8.50.To what value must he reduce his variable cost if he wants a break-even point of 900 units?

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In many business decisions,there are numerous states of nature and/or alternatives.These problems are best handled by

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If the break-even volume doubles,this suggests that

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Complete this mathematical statement: ________ = P(demand > break-even).

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Cost volume analysis deals only with costs while break-even analysis deals with both costs and revenues.

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In terms of fixed costs,variable cost/unit,and the selling price/unit,what is the break-even point?

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Tony B.is attempting to start a landscaping business.He estimates that to break-even,he will need about 140 customers.He believes he will lose approximately $500 per customer for each customer fewer than the 140.At the moment,he believes that there is an 80% probability that he will be able to secure at least 130 customers and that there is a 50/50 chance that demand will be greater than 150 customers.He has several marketing research firms offering (for a price,of course)to conduct a survey that will provide additional information regarding the probability of demand.How much should he be willing to spend if he decides to have a survey made?

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σ describes the dispersion or spread of the normal distribution.

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If D = 0.75,s = 500,K = 6,and the selling price/unit = 5,determine EOL.

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Briefly describe the opportunity loss function.

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If D = 1.01,s = 900,K = 10,and the selling price is $11,the EOL is

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When using the normal distribution to approximate demand,which of the following is not true?

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Loss/unit when sales are below the break-even point is equal to

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The IRU Company manufactures traditional wooden pencils.They have determined their variable cost/unit to be $0.012/pencil.Fixed costs,however,are quite high because of old processing equipment and costly packaging.The fixed costs are estimated at $140,000/month.IRU sells their pencils at a price of $13.248/gross.(There are 144 pencils in a gross. )How many grosses of pencils must be sold annually to break even?

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Average demand is estimated at 1,200 units/month.It is believed there is a 20% chance for demand to be higher than 1,800.Determine the μ and σ of a normal distribution that estimates demand.

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If variable cost/unit falls,the fixed cost rises,and the selling price/unit remains constant,the break-even point

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Given the following opportunity loss function,determine the loss when 400 units are sold. Opportunity loss = 3 (1,000 - X)for X ≤ 1,000,otherwise 0.

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Demand is estimated to be 800 units.If Z is taken to be 1.5,when the estimated average demand is 400 units,determine σ for these data.

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