Exam 7: Demand Estimation and Forecasting

A consulting firm estimates the following quarterly sales forecasting model: $Q _ { t } = a + b t + c D$ The equation is estimated using quarterly data from 20010I-2020III (t = 1,...,43).The variable D is a dummy variable for the second quarter where: D = 1 in the second quarter,and 0 otherwise. The results of the estimation are: Given the above,what is the estimated intercept of the trend line in the second quarter?

A forecaster used the regression equation $Q _ { t } = a + b t + c _ { 1 } D _ { 1 } + c _ { 2 } D _ { 2 } + c _ { 3 } D _ { 3 }$ and quarterly sales data for 2004I-2021IV (t = 1,...,64)for an appliance manufacturer to obtain the results shown below.Q is quarterly sales,and $D _ { 1 } , D _ { 2 }$ and $D _ { 3 }$ are dummy variables for quarters I,II,and III. At the 5 percent level of significance,is there a statistically significant trend in sales?

A consulting firm estimates the following quarterly sales forecasting model: $Q _ { t } = a + b t + c D$ The equation is estimated using quarterly data from 20010I-2020III (t = 1,...,43).The variable D is a dummy variable for the second quarter where: D = 1 in the second quarter,and 0 otherwise. The results of the estimation are: Given the above,what is the estimated intercept of the trend line in the third quarter?

A forecaster used the regression equation $Q _ { t } = a + b t + c _ { 1 } D _ { 1 } + c _ { 2 } D _ { 2 } + c _ { 3 } D _ { 3 }$ and quarterly sales data for 2004I-2021IV (t = 1,...,64)for an appliance manufacturer to obtain the results shown below.Q is quarterly sales,and $D _ { 1 } , D _ { 2 }$ and $D _ { 3 }$ are dummy variables for quarters I,II,and III. In any given year,quarterly sales tend to vary as follows:

A market-determined price

Time-series models

The following linear demand specification is estimated for Conlan Enterprises,a price-setting firm: $Q = a + b P + c M + d P _ { R }$ where Q is the quantity demanded of the product Conlan Enterprises sells,P is the price of that product,M is income,and $P _ { R }$ is the price of a related product.The results of the estimation are presented below: Assume that the income is $10,000,the price of the related good is $40,and Conlan chooses to set the price of this product at $30.At the prices and income given above,Conlan can expect to sell _________units.

estimated demand for a good is $\hat { Q } = 25 - 5 P + 0.32 M + 12 P _ { R }$ where Q is the quantity demanded of the good,P is the price of the good,M is income,and $P _ { R }$ is the price of related good R.If the price of the good falls by $4,the quantity demanded will ________ by ________ units.

The estimated demand for a good X is $\hat { Q } = 70 - 3.5 P - 0.6 M + 4 P _ { Z }$ ,where $\hat { Q }$ = units of the good,P = price of the good,M = income,and $P _ { z }$ = price of related good Z.All parameter estimates are statistically significant.Which of the following statements is correct?

The following linear demand specification is estimated for Conlan Enterprises,a price-setting firm: $Q = a + b P + c M + d P _ { R }$ where Q is the quantity demanded of the product Conlan Enterprises sells,P is the price of that product,M is income,and $P _ { R }$ is the price of a related product.The results of the estimation are presented below: For the next 2 questions suppose income remains at $10,000 but the price of the related good increases to $60 and Conlan decides to raise the price of its product to $50.At the prices and income given above,Conlan can expect to sell _________units.

Qualitative forecasting methods

The manufacturer of Beanie Baby dolls used quarterly price data for 2012I - 2020IV (t = 1,...,36)and the regression equation $P _ { t } = a + b t + c _ { 1 } D 1 _ { t } + c _ { 2 } D 2 _ { t } + c _ { 3 } D 3 _ { t }$ to forecast doll prices in the year 2021. $P _ { t }$ is the quarterly price of dolls,and $D 1 _ { t } , D 2 _ { t }$ and $D 3 _ { t }$ are dummy variables for quarters I,II,and III,respectively. Using the estimated time-series regression,predicted price in the 2nd quarter of 2021 is

A consulting firm estimates the following quarterly sales forecasting model: $Q _ { t } = a + b t + c D$ The equation is estimated using quarterly data from 20010I-2020III (t = 1,...,43).The variable D is a dummy variable for the second quarter where: D = 1 in the second quarter,and 0 otherwise. The results of the estimation are: Using the estimated trend line above,what is the predicted level of sales in 2020IV ?

A forecaster used the regression equation $Q _ { t } = a + b t + c _ { 1 } D _ { 1 } + c _ { 2 } D _ { 2 } + c _ { 3 } D _ { 3 }$ and quarterly sales data for 2004I-2021IV (t = 1,...,64)for an appliance manufacturer to obtain the results shown below.Q is quarterly sales,and $D _ { 1 } , D _ { 2 }$ and $D _ { 3 }$ are dummy variables for quarters I,II,and III. Using the estimation results given above,the predicted level of sales in 2022I is _______ units.

The following linear demand specification is estimated for Conlan Enterprises,a price-setting firm: $Q = a + b P + c M + d P _ { R }$ where Q is the quantity demanded of the product Conlan Enterprises sells,P is the price of that product,M is income,and $P _ { R }$ is the price of a related product.The results of the estimation are presented below: Given the above,at the 1% level of significance,which estimates are statistically significant?

Dummy variables are used in time-series forecasting models

The following linear demand specification is estimated for Conlan Enterprises,a price-setting firm: $Q = a + b P + c M + d P _ { R }$ where Q is the quantity demanded of the product Conlan Enterprises sells,P is the price of that product,M is income,and $P _ { R }$ is the price of a related product.The results of the estimation are presented below: For the next 2 questions suppose income remains at $10,000 but the price of the related good increases to $60 and Conlan decides to raise the price of its product to $50.What is the new own price elasticity of demand?

A consulting firm estimates the following quarterly sales forecasting model: $Q _ { t } = a + b t + c D$ The equation is estimated using quarterly data from 20010I-2020III (t = 1,...,43).The variable D is a dummy variable for the second quarter where: D = 1 in the second quarter,and 0 otherwise. The results of the estimation are: Give the above,at the 1 percent level of significance,is there a statistically significant trend in sales?

The following linear demand specification is estimated for Conlan Enterprises,a price-setting firm: $Q = a + b P + c M + d P _ { R }$ where Q is the quantity demanded of the product Conlan Enterprises sells,P is the price of that product,M is income,and $P _ { R }$ is the price of a related product.The results of the estimation are presented below: Given the above,based upon the parameter estimates in the above table

representative sample