Question 1

The method of frequency assigns probability by finding the frequency with which:

Accepted Answer

A) the event is represented in a list of the possible outcomes 
B) previous researchers have failed to determine the correct probability 
C) research done by others has measured an approximately similar probability 
D) a given outcome has failed to occur in a reference group of randomly chosen cases 
E) a given outcome has occurred in a reference group of similar cases 
A) the event is represented in a list of the possible outcomes 
B) previous researchers have failed to determine the correct probability 
C) research done by others has measured an approximately similar probability 
D) a given outcome has failed to occur in a reference group of randomly chosen cases 
E) a given outcome has occurred in a reference group of similar cases E

Question 2

What does it mean if something has a probability of 1%?

Accepted Answer

A) It is very unlikely to occur. 
B) It is very likely to occur. 
C) It must occur. 
D) It cannot occur. 
E) We have no information about whether or not it will occur. 
A) It is very unlikely to occur. 
B) It is very likely to occur. 
C) It must occur. 
D) It cannot occur. 
E) We have no information about whether or not it will occur. A

Question 3

Which is the most complete and accurate list of the methods used to establish probability?

Accepted Answer

A) method of equal alternatives, method of frequency 
B) method of frequency, intuitive judgment, random projection 
C) method of equal alternatives, method of frequency, intuitive judgment 
D) intuitive judgment, random projection 
E) intuitive judgment, random projection, method of equal alternatives 
A) method of equal alternatives, method of frequency 
B) method of frequency, intuitive judgment, random projection 
C) method of equal alternatives, method of frequency, intuitive judgment 
D) intuitive judgment, random projection 
E) intuitive judgment, random projection, method of equal alternatives C

Question 4

Which of the following probabilities would most likely be established by intuitive judgment?

Accepted Answer

A) the odds that a circulating dollar is more than three years old 
B) the odds that a certain dog will live to be 15 years old 
C) the odds that lightning will strike my house this week 
D) the odds that cars will get 90 miles to the gallon by the year 2050 
E) the odds that a randomly chosen person voted in the last election 
A) the odds that a circulating dollar is more than three years old 
B) the odds that a certain dog will live to be 15 years old 
C) the odds that lightning will strike my house this week 
D) the odds that cars will get 90 miles to the gallon by the year 2050 
E) the odds that a randomly chosen person voted in the last election

Question 5

A chess set has 16 white pieces and 16 black pieces.Suppose that you are blindly removing chess pieces from a bag.What is the probability that the first two pieces you remove will both be black or both be white?

Accepted Answer

A) 15/62 
B) 1/2 
C) 2/3 
D) 1/4 
E) 15/31 
A) 15/62 
B) 1/2 
C) 2/3 
D) 1/4 
E) 15/31

Question 6

Which of the following probabilities would be best determined by using the method of frequency?

Accepted Answer

A) the odds that a certain dog will live to be 15 years old 
B) the odds that a marble dropped onto a flat table will roll off its left side 
C) the odds that a randomly chosen chess piece will be a bishop 
D) the odds that a new variety of cheese will taste good 
E) the odds that a bee randomly selected from a beehive will be the queen 
A) the odds that a certain dog will live to be 15 years old 
B) the odds that a marble dropped onto a flat table will roll off its left side 
C) the odds that a randomly chosen chess piece will be a bishop 
D) the odds that a new variety of cheese will taste good 
E) the odds that a bee randomly selected from a beehive will be the queen

Question 7

How would we determine the probability of the negation of event A?

Accepted Answer

A) It is the same as the probability of event A. 
B) It is the square of the probability of event A. 
C) It is the square root of the probability of event A. 
D) It is one minus the probability of event A. 
E) It is the probability of event A minus one. 
A) It is the same as the probability of event A. 
B) It is the square of the probability of event A. 
C) It is the square root of the probability of event A. 
D) It is one minus the probability of event A. 
E) It is the probability of event A minus one.

Question 8

Which method for establishing probability would be most appropriate for determining the probability that the next man who walks into a certain restaurant will have a moustache?

Accepted Answer

A) method of equal alternatives 
B) method of frequency 
C) intuitive judgment 
D) The methods would all be equally appropriate. 
E) None of the methods could be applied in this situation. 
A) method of equal alternatives 
B) method of frequency 
C) intuitive judgment 
D) The methods would all be equally appropriate. 
E) None of the methods could be applied in this situation.

Question 9

The purpose of probability calculus is to:

Accepted Answer

A) determine simpler event probabilities 
B) determine more complex event probabilities 
C) eliminate the need for the method of frequency 
D) eliminate the need for intuitive judgments 
E) eliminate the need for the method of equal alternatives 
A) determine simpler event probabilities 
B) determine more complex event probabilities 
C) eliminate the need for the method of frequency 
D) eliminate the need for intuitive judgments 
E) eliminate the need for the method of equal alternatives

Question 10

One way to formulate the probability of drawing a queen from a deck of cards is to say that there is a 1 in 13 chance.Another common way to say the same thing is to say that:

Accepted Answer

A) there are four queen events 
B) a queen event will only occur between 1:12 and 1:13 
C) the odds are between the chances of drawing a jack or a king 
D) the odds are 1:13 
E) the odds are 1:12 
A) there are four queen events 
B) a queen event will only occur between 1:12 and 1:13 
C) the odds are between the chances of drawing a jack or a king 
D) the odds are 1:13 
E) the odds are 1:12

Question 11

Which of the following statements expresses a probability?

Accepted Answer

A) One entry out of every 300 will win a prize. 
B) Two members of the book club are dominating the discussion. 
C) A coin was flipped four times and the results were recorded. 
D) A meteoroid could strike the Earth in the next 20 years. 
E) The painting is likely to fetch at least $2,000 at auction. 
A) One entry out of every 300 will win a prize. 
B) Two members of the book club are dominating the discussion. 
C) A coin was flipped four times and the results were recorded. 
D) A meteoroid could strike the Earth in the next 20 years. 
E) The painting is likely to fetch at least $2,000 at auction.

Question 12

Which method of establishing probability is most open to bias?

Accepted Answer

A) They are all equally open to bias. 
B) intuitive judgment 
C) method of frequency 
D) method of equal alternatives 
E) None of them is open to bias. 
A) They are all equally open to bias. 
B) intuitive judgment 
C) method of frequency 
D) method of equal alternatives 
E) None of them is open to bias.

Question 13

Some probabilities are established simply by an individual's assessment of the situation.Such an assessment is technically called a(n):

Accepted Answer

A) subjective assessment 
B) individual assessment 
C) individual hunch 
D) intuitive judgment 
E) guesstimation 
A) subjective assessment 
B) individual assessment 
C) individual hunch 
D) intuitive judgment 
E) guesstimation

Question 14

Suppose that we use two different methods to determine the probability of a certain event.Will the two methods yield the same probability?

Accepted Answer

A) Yes, since the probability is always an objective fact. 
B) Sometimes they will yield the same probability, and sometimes they won't. 
C) They will yield the same result if they are used by the same person, but might not if they are used by two different people. 
D) If one of the methods is intuitive judgment, then they will always be the same, but otherwise they might differ. 
E) No, they can never yield the same results because their techniques are so different. 
A) Yes, since the probability is always an objective fact. 
B) Sometimes they will yield the same probability, and sometimes they won't. 
C) They will yield the same result if they are used by the same person, but might not if they are used by two different people. 
D) If one of the methods is intuitive judgment, then they will always be the same, but otherwise they might differ. 
E) No, they can never yield the same results because their techniques are so different.

Question 15

Which operation of probability calculus would be used to determine the probability that there will not be a fire drill at your job next week?

Accepted Answer

A) conjunction 
B) distribution 
C) disjunction 
D) negation 
E) No operation of probability calculus could determine such a thing. 
A) conjunction 
B) distribution 
C) disjunction 
D) negation 
E) No operation of probability calculus could determine such a thing.

Question 16

There is a raffle with only one prize, and there is a 1 in 200 chance of winning.If my family has six people, what is the probability that none of us will win?

Accepted Answer

A) 3/100 
B) 179/200 
C) 47/50 
D) 49/50 
E) 97/100 
A) 3/100 
B) 179/200 
C) 47/50 
D) 49/50 
E) 97/100

Question 17

In general, a probability tells us:

Accepted Answer

A) which things will not happen 
B) which things will happen 
C) which things will happen and which things will not happen 
D) which things will happen or which things will not happen 
E) how likely things are to happen 
A) which things will not happen 
B) which things will happen 
C) which things will happen and which things will not happen 
D) which things will happen or which things will not happen 
E) how likely things are to happen

Question 18

Could there be a situation in which each possible outcome has a different probability?

Accepted Answer

A) No, since every outcome must have exactly the same probability. 
B) No, since outcome probabilities always have symmetric pairing. 
C) No, since the Compton Limitation requires that at least one probability is shared by two outcomes. 
D) Yes, as long as all of the probabilities add up to 1. 
E) Yes, as long as the outcomes do not share any causal factors. 
A) No, since every outcome must have exactly the same probability. 
B) No, since outcome probabilities always have symmetric pairing. 
C) No, since the Compton Limitation requires that at least one probability is shared by two outcomes. 
D) Yes, as long as all of the probabilities add up to 1. 
E) Yes, as long as the outcomes do not share any causal factors.

Question 19

What is the probability of rolling two six-sided dice and getting two 5s?

Accepted Answer

A) 1/5 
B) 1/6 
C) 1/36 
D) 1/18 
E) 1/30 
A) 1/5 
B) 1/6 
C) 1/36 
D) 1/18 
E) 1/30

Question 20

What is the difference between dependent and independent events?

Accepted Answer

A) The probability of an independent event depends on whether or not another event has occurred, whereas the probability of a dependent event does not. 
B) The probability of a dependent event depends on whether or not another event has occurred, whereas the probability of an independent event does not. 
C) Dependent events must both occur, whereas one independent event might occur without the other. 
D) Independent events must both occur, whereas one dependent event might occur without the other. 
E) Dependent events have a probability less than one half, whereas independent events have a probability that is one half or greater. 
A) The probability of an independent event depends on whether or not another event has occurred, whereas the probability of a dependent event does not. 
B) The probability of a dependent event depends on whether or not another event has occurred, whereas the probability of an independent event does not. 
C) Dependent events must both occur, whereas one independent event might occur without the other. 
D) Independent events must both occur, whereas one dependent event might occur without the other. 
E) Dependent events have a probability less than one half, whereas independent events have a probability that is one half or greater.

The method of frequency assigns probability by finding the frequency with which:

What does it mean if something has a probability of 1%?

Which is the most complete and accurate list of the methods used to establish probability?

Which of the following probabilities would most likely be established by intuitive judgment?

A chess set has 16 white pieces and 16 black pieces.Suppose that you are blindly removing chess pieces from a bag.What is the probability that the first two pieces you remove will both be black or both be white?

Which of the following probabilities would be best determined by using the method of frequency?

How would we determine the probability of the negation of event A?

Which method for establishing probability would be most appropriate for determining the probability that the next man who walks into a certain restaurant will have a moustache?

The purpose of probability calculus is to:

One way to formulate the probability of drawing a queen from a deck of cards is to say that there is a 1 in 13 chance.Another common way to say the same thing is to say that:

Which of the following statements expresses a probability?

Which method of establishing probability is most open to bias?

Some probabilities are established simply by an individual's assessment of the situation.Such an assessment is technically called a(n):

Suppose that we use two different methods to determine the probability of a certain event.Will the two methods yield the same probability?

Which operation of probability calculus would be used to determine the probability that there will not be a fire drill at your job next week?

There is a raffle with only one prize, and there is a 1 in 200 chance of winning.If my family has six people, what is the probability that none of us will win?

In general, a probability tells us:

Could there be a situation in which each possible outcome has a different probability?

What is the probability of rolling two six-sided dice and getting two 5s?

What is the difference between dependent and independent events?

Classification

Definitions

Propositions

Argument Analysis

Fallacies

Categorical Propositions

Categorical Syllogisms

Reasoning With Syllogisms

Propositional Logic-Propositions

Propositional Logic-Arguments

Predicate Logic

Inductive Generalizations

Argument by Analogy

Statistical Reasoning

Explanation

Filters

Exam 16: Probability

The method of frequency assigns probability by finding the frequency with which:

What does it mean if something has a probability of 1%?

Which is the most complete and accurate list of the methods used to establish probability?

Which of the following probabilities would most likely be established by intuitive judgment?

A chess set has 16 white pieces and 16 black pieces.Suppose that you are blindly removing chess pieces from a bag.What is the probability that the first two pieces you remove will both be black or both be white?

Which of the following probabilities would be best determined by using the method of frequency?

How would we determine the probability of the negation of event A?

Which method for establishing probability would be most appropriate for determining the probability that the next man who walks into a certain restaurant will have a moustache?

The purpose of probability calculus is to:

One way to formulate the probability of drawing a queen from a deck of cards is to say that there is a 1 in 13 chance.Another common way to say the same thing is to say that:

Which of the following statements expresses a probability?

Which method of establishing probability is most open to bias?

Some probabilities are established simply by an individual's assessment of the situation.Such an assessment is technically called a(n):

Suppose that we use two different methods to determine the probability of a certain event.Will the two methods yield the same probability?

Which operation of probability calculus would be used to determine the probability that there will not be a fire drill at your job next week?

There is a raffle with only one prize, and there is a 1 in 200 chance of winning.If my family has six people, what is the probability that none of us will win?

In general, a probability tells us:

Could there be a situation in which each possible outcome has a different probability?

What is the probability of rolling two six-sided dice and getting two 5s?

What is the difference between dependent and independent events?

Classification

Definitions

Propositions

Argument Analysis

Fallacies

Categorical Propositions

Categorical Syllogisms

Reasoning With Syllogisms

Propositional Logic-Propositions

Propositional Logic-Arguments

Predicate Logic

Inductive Generalizations

Argument by Analogy

Statistical Reasoning

Explanation

Filters