Exam 12: Macroanalysis and Microvaluation of the Stock Market

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If interest rates increase due to inflation, but expected cash flows to a firm do not change, then you would expect stock prices to

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The dividend payout ratio for the aggregate market is 65 percent, the required rate of return is 12 percent, and the expected growth rate for dividends is 6 percent. Compute the current earnings multiple.

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Which of the following statements concerning asset allocation is false?

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Exhibit 12.6 USE THE INFORMATION BELOW FOR THE FOLLOWING PROBLEM(S) Consider the following information that you propose to use to obtain an estimate of year 2004 EPS for the MacLog Company. Year 2003 Estimated Year 2004 GDP 11,000 Billion GDP growth 3.5\% Sales per share \ 800 Operating profit margin 12\% Depreciation/Fixed Assets 14\% Fixed asset turnover 2 Interest rate 3.5\% Total asset turnover 0.7 Debt/Total assets 45\% Tax rate 36\% In addition a regression analysis indicates the following relationship between growth in sales per share for MacLog and GDP growth is % Δ\Delta Sales per share = 0.015 + 0.75(% Δ\Delta GDP) -Refer to Exhibit 12.6. Estimate the firm's growth rate in sales per share.

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Exhibit 12.9 USE THE INFORMATION BELOW FOR THE FOLLOWING PROBLEM(S) The aggregate market currently has a retention ratio of 60 percent, a required rate of return of 12 percent, and an expected growth rate for dividends of 4 percent. -Refer to Exhibit 12.9. Starting with the initial conditions, you expect the retention ratio to be constant, the rate of inflation to increase by 2 percent, and the growth rate to increase by 1 percent. What is the expected P/E?

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Which of the following is not normally associated with cyclical indicators?

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Exhibit 12.1 USE THE INFORMATION BELOW FOR THE FOLLOWING PROBLEM(S) Assume that the dividend payout ratio will be 65 percent when the rate on long-term government bonds falls to 8 percent. Since investors are becoming more risk averse, the equity risk premium will rise to 7 percent and investors will require a 15 percent return. The return on equity will be 12 percent. -Refer to Exhibit 12.1. To what price will the market rise if the earnings expectation is $22.00 per share?

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Aggregate return on equity increases as

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Exhibit 12.4 USE THE INFORMATION BELOW FOR THE FOLLOWING PROBLEM(S) Assume that the dividend payout ratio will be 45 percent when the rate on long term government bonds falls to 9 percent. Since investors are becoming more risk averse, the equity risk premium will rise to 7 percent and investors will require a 16 percent return. The return on equity will be 14 percent. -Refer to Exhibit 12.4. What is your expectation of the market P/E ratio?

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The growth rate (g) of dividends is affected by all of the following except

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Estimating net profit margin directly is difficult because it is so volatile.

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Changes in the dividend payout ratio are positively related to changes in the retention rate.

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An increase in the required rate of return k will increase the P/E ratio.

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An examination of the relationship between stock prices and the economy has shown that the relationship is

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Exhibit 12.9 USE THE INFORMATION BELOW FOR THE FOLLOWING PROBLEM(S) The aggregate market currently has a retention ratio of 60 percent, a required rate of return of 12 percent, and an expected growth rate for dividends of 4 percent. -Refer to Exhibit 12.9. If the payout ratio changes to 50 percent, but there are no other changes, what will be the new P/E?

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Diffusion indexes indicate the spread in interest rates between major economies.

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Exhibit 12.6 USE THE INFORMATION BELOW FOR THE FOLLOWING PROBLEM(S) Consider the following information that you propose to use to obtain an estimate of year 2004 EPS for the MacLog Company. Year 2003 Estimated Year 2004 GDP 11,000 Billion GDP growth 3.5\% Sales per share \ 800 Operating profit margin 12\% Depreciation/Fixed Assets 14\% Fixed asset turnover 2 Interest rate 3.5\% Total asset turnover 0.7 Debt/Total assets 45\% Tax rate 36\% In addition a regression analysis indicates the following relationship between growth in sales per share for MacLog and GDP growth is % Δ\Delta Sales per share = 0.015 + 0.75(% Δ\Delta GDP) -Refer to Exhibit 12.6. Calculate the firm's EPS for the year 2004.

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If, for the S&P Industrials Index, the profit margin was 0.30 and the equity turnover ratio was 11, the ROE would be:

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Exhibit 12.2 USE THE INFORMATION BELOW FOR THE FOLLOWING PROBLEM(S) Assume that the dividend payout ratio will be 75 percent when the rate on long-term government bonds falls to 8 percent. Since investors are becoming more risk averse, the equity risk premium will rise to 7 percent and investors will require a 15 percent return. The return on equity will be 12 percent. -Refer to Exhibit 12.2. What is the expected sustainable growth rate?

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The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) has derived the following indicator series in order to monitor business cycles.

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