Exam 12: Macroanalysis and Microvaluation of the Stock Market

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The dividend payout ratio for the aggregate market is 55 percent, the required rate of return is 15 percent, and the expected growth rate for dividends is 7 percent. Compute the current earnings multiple.

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The dividend payout ratio for the aggregate market is 65 percent, the required rate of return is 13 percent, and the expected growth rate for dividends is 8 percent. Compute the current earnings multiple.

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The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is an example of a leading indicator.

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An analysis of U.S. equity markets using the cash flow techniques concludes that the market is not fully valued.

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Building permits for new private housing units are listed as a leading indicator by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER).

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Exhibit 12.8 USE THE INFORMATION BELOW FOR THE FOLLOWING PROBLEM(S) As an economist for a research firm you are forecasting the market P/E ratio using the dividend discount model. Because the economy has been slow for 5 years, you expect the dividend-payout ratio to be 55%. Long-term government bond rates are at 6% and the equity risk premium is estimated to be 3%. Return on equity (ROE) is estimated to be 11%. -Refer to Exhibit 12.8. What is the expected growth rate?

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The valuation techniques presented in the chapter can only be applied to the stock market in the United States, since the U.S. stock market is inefficient.

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Exhibit 12.3 USE THE INFORMATION BELOW FOR THE FOLLOWING PROBLEM(S) Assume that the dividend payout ratio will be 55 percent when the rate on long-term government bonds falls to 9 percent. Since investors are becoming more risk averse, the equity risk premium will rise to 8 percent and investors will require a 7 percent return. The return on equity will be 13 percent. -Refer to Exhibit 12.3. To what price will the market rise if the earnings expectation is $1.5?

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You are attempting to estimate expected earnings per share for a major stock market series. You have determined an appropriate estimate for sales per share. Which of the following methods can be used to estimate the profit margin?

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Which of the following is not a factor under the Free Cash Flow to Equity (FCFE) Model?

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Exhibit 12.6 USE THE INFORMATION BELOW FOR THE FOLLOWING PROBLEM(S) Consider the following information that you propose to use to obtain an estimate of year 2004 EPS for the MacLog Company. Year 2003 Estimated Year 2004 GDP 11,000 Billion GDP growth 3.5\% Sales per share \ 800 Operating profit margin 12\% Depreciation/Fixed Assets 14\% Fixed asset turnover 2 Interest rate 3.5\% Total asset turnover 0.7 Debt/Total assets 45\% Tax rate 36\% In addition a regression analysis indicates the following relationship between growth in sales per share for MacLog and GDP growth is % Δ\Delta Sales per share = 0.015 + 0.75(% Δ\Delta GDP) -Refer to Exhibit 12.6. Estimate the firm's sales per share for the year 2004.

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There is a negative relationship between the capacity utilization rate and the profit margin.

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Exhibit 12.6 USE THE INFORMATION BELOW FOR THE FOLLOWING PROBLEM(S) Consider the following information that you propose to use to obtain an estimate of year 2004 EPS for the MacLog Company. Year 2003 Estimated Year 2004 GDP 11,000 Billion GDP growth 3.5\% Sales per share \ 800 Operating profit margin 12\% Depreciation/Fixed Assets 14\% Fixed asset turnover 2 Interest rate 3.5\% Total asset turnover 0.7 Debt/Total assets 45\% Tax rate 36\% In addition a regression analysis indicates the following relationship between growth in sales per share for MacLog and GDP growth is % Δ\Delta Sales per share = 0.015 + 0.75(% Δ\Delta GDP) -Refer to Exhibit 12.6. Calculate the firm's level of Total Assets per share for the year 2004.

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Stock prices move coincidentally with the economy.

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The U.S. balance of payments, the federal deficit and military contract awards are ____ of aggregate economic activity.

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A main limitation of the NBER indicator series is false signals.

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It is more important to estimate future earnings than the future earnings multiplier.

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Which of the following economic series is not included in the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) coincident economic indicator group?

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If, for the S&P Industrials Index, the profit margin was 0.35 and the equity turnover ratio was 10, the ROE would be:

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Which of the following economic series is not included in the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) leading indicator group?

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