Exam 11: Judgment, Decision Making, and Types of Thinking

What is the probability of getting heads on the fifth toss of a fair coin when the four previous tosses were all tails?

Would you prefer a treatment for a serious disease that is (a) 75% effective and would save 750 lives in 1000 people with the disease or (b) a treatment that would result in the deaths of 250 people out of 1000 with the disease who receive a treatment that is 75% effective in treating the disease? According to research, how do people typically respond to this question?

Ali grabs some veggies in the produce section of the grocery store because he wants to eat better and lose weight. Positioned for optimal view in the checkout lane, Ali spies a candy bar. He remembers that he has not had lunch yet and so places it alongside the produce for purchase. How has Ali's decision to buy the candy bar been manipulated?

Graphologists believe that analysis of a person's handwriting can indicate the personality and other characteristics of the person. A graphologist concludes that a person who crosses t's and f's with whip-like lines is a sadist, because sadists often enjoy hurting people with whips. That graphologist MOST likely:

An instructor was interested in students' perceptions of cheating. She wanted to protect the confidentiality of their responses, so she told students to write the last two digits of their student number (from 00 to 99) in a space at the top of their form. The first question the instructor asked them was to estimate from 0% to 100% the percentage of college students they believed cheat in their course work at least once a semester. Based on the research by Ariely and his colleagues (2003), students would MOST likely:

Which assumes that "like goes with like"?

The folk remedy for a hangover of having a little "hair of the dog that bit you" is an example of the:

A fraternity considered a benefit project to help rebuild a local business that had closed due to a fire. Rico said he wondered if it was a good idea because although the business had helped several students, it was not part of the university. The president of the fraternity spoke up to strongly support the idea, along with several other members. When Rico went to speak again, another member put his finger to his lips to signal Rico not to speak. The benefit idea passed, but after the fraternity did the benefit, it was learned that the business had sold illegal drugs to students, and the fraternity received a reprimand. Which thinking error led to the bad decision?

Jared, a high school senior, was searching for colleges and found a website for a school in which all the students were well dressed in the photos. Jared said to himself, "That place looks too sophisticated for me. I want to go somewhere that is more casual," and he left the website. Jared is MOST likely:

Judging a sick person shivering from a fever as being like a person who is shivering from the cold is using:

In the terminology of the dual process theory of thinking, which combination of terms goes together?

Describing people as cognitive misers refers to the idea that people tend to:

Suppose a graphologist believes that a person's handwriting can indicate personality traits, as when a writer makes t's or f's with a whip-like flourish indicating sadism because sadists enjoy hurting people with whips. This is an example of:

Being affected by vivid examples and recent experiences is MOST related to:

An earlier chapter discussed how when someone makes an argument, there may be greater availability of "myside" evidence-that is, reasons that support the person's favored position and contribute to confirmation bias. Which action BEST presents a strategy that is effective in debiasing confirmation bias?

Suppose you guessed and incorrectly answered a multiple-choice question that had five options as possible answers, with each option equally likely and only one correct answer. What is the probability of your guessing the answer INCORRECTLY?

The judgment errors of the gambler's fallacy and the illusion of the "hot hand" have in common that both:

Suppose you guessed and correctly answered a multiple-choice question that had four options as possible answers, with each option equally likely and only one correct answer. What is the probability of your guessing the answer CORRECTLY?

A basketball coach noticed that one of his players had sunk three 3-point shots in a row before the final shot in a game. The final shot, however, was taken and missed by a second player. For the final shot, both players were open, but the team passed the ball to the second player, who had a better shooting average than the first. The coach felt regret that he had not told the players to pass the ball to the first player, who was obviously on a shooting streak. The BEST analysis of randomness and representativeness in the game's final shot is that:

According to the dual process theory of cognition, people generally engage in Type 1 thinking when they: