Exam 41: How to Measure Instability

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Explain how to measure the path of any economic series over the cycle. -What is a cycle relative? Explain how to find a cycle relative.

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Measuring the path of any economic series over the cycle involves analyzing the fluctuations in the series over time. This can be done by identifying the peaks and troughs of the series, which represent the highest and lowest points of the cycle. By measuring the distance between these peaks and troughs, we can determine the amplitude of the cycle and how the economic series changes over time.

A cycle relative is a measure that compares the current value of an economic series to its historical values within a specific time frame. This allows us to see how the current value of the series compares to its past performance and whether it is above or below its long-term trend.

To find a cycle relative, we can calculate the percentage change or the difference between the current value of the economic series and its historical average or trend. This will give us a measure of how the series is performing relative to its past performance and help us identify whether it is in an upswing or downswing within the cycle. Additionally, we can use statistical methods such as moving averages or detrending techniques to remove the long-term trend and focus on the cyclical movements of the series. By doing so, we can better understand the path of the economic series over the cycle and make informed decisions based on its current relative position.

Whats defention of terms: -business cycle

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the rise of the economy from trough to peak, as well as the following decline from peak to trough

Many economists argue that the unemployment rate tends to understate the actual amount of unemployment. Why?

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C

 Table 41a \text { Table 41a } Real GDP (Billions of 2000 dollars) Year 1st Qtr 2nd Qtr 3rd Qtr 4th Qtr 1970 \ 3,759.8 1971 3,864.1 3,885.9 3,916.7 3,927.9 1972 3,997.7 4,092.1 4,131.1 4,198.7 1973 4,305.3 4,355.1 4,331.9 4,373.3 1974 4,335.4 4,347.9 4,305.8 4,288.9 1975 4,237.6 -Table 41a gives quarterly GDP data for a complete business cycle. Using Mitchell's terminology, what is the value for Stage 9?

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Explain how to measure the path of any economic series over the cycle. -What is a cycle base? Explain how to find a cycle base.

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Explain how to measure the path of any economic series over the cycle. -Name one economic series that falls in expansion and rises in contraction. Explain this behavior.

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 Table 41a \text { Table 41a } Real GDP (Billions of 2000 dollars) Year 1st Qtr 2nd Qtr 3rd Qtr 4th Qtr 1970 \ 3,759.8 1971 3,864.1 3,885.9 3,916.7 3,927.9 1972 3,997.7 4,092.1 4,131.1 4,198.7 1973 4,305.3 4,355.1 4,331.9 4,373.3 1974 4,335.4 4,347.9 4,305.8 4,288.9 1975 4,237.6 -Table 41a gives quarterly GDP data for a complete business cycle. Using Mitchell's terminology, what is the value for the cycle base?

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Explain how to find the peaks and troughs of the business cycle. -What is an expansion? What is a contraction?

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 Table 41a \text { Table 41a } Real GDP (Billions of 2000 dollars) Year 1st Qtr 2nd Qtr 3rd Qtr 4th Qtr 1970 \ 3,759.8 1971 3,864.1 3,885.9 3,916.7 3,927.9 1972 3,997.7 4,092.1 4,131.1 4,198.7 1973 4,305.3 4,355.1 4,331.9 4,373.3 1974 4,335.4 4,347.9 4,305.8 4,288.9 1975 4,237.6 -Table 41a gives quarterly GDP data for a complete business cycle. Using Mitchell's terminology, what is the value for the cycle relative in Stage 1?

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 Table 41a \text { Table 41a } Real GDP (Billions of 2000 dollars) Year 1st Qtr 2nd Qtr 3rd Qtr 4th Qtr 1970 \ 3,759.8 1971 3,864.1 3,885.9 3,916.7 3,927.9 1972 3,997.7 4,092.1 4,131.1 4,198.7 1973 4,305.3 4,355.1 4,331.9 4,373.3 1974 4,335.4 4,347.9 4,305.8 4,288.9 1975 4,237.6 -Table 41a gives quarterly GDP data for a complete business cycle. Using Mitchell's terminology, what is the value for Stage 1?

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What is meant by the cycle base?

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What is meant by capacity utilization?

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Whats defention of terms: -business cycle peak

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Explain how to measure the path of any economic series over the cycle. -Explain how to calculate the percentage of expansion and the percentage of ?contraction?

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Whats defention of terms: -business cycle trough

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Describe measuring how much an economic series rises from trough to peak and falls from peak to trough. -What is a cycle relative and how is it calculated?

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Whats defention of terms: -cycle base

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Explain how to find the peaks and troughs of the business cycle. -What happens to capacity utilization over the business cycle?

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 Table 41a \text { Table 41a } Real GDP (Billions of 2000 dollars) Year 1st Qtr 2nd Qtr 3rd Qtr 4th Qtr 1970 \ 3,759.8 1971 3,864.1 3,885.9 3,916.7 3,927.9 1972 3,997.7 4,092.1 4,131.1 4,198.7 1973 4,305.3 4,355.1 4,331.9 4,373.3 1974 4,335.4 4,347.9 4,305.8 4,288.9 1975 4,237.6 -Table 41a gives quarterly GDP data for a complete business cycle. Using Mitchell's terminology, what is the value for Stage 5?

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Explain how to find the peaks and troughs of the business cycle. -How does unemployment behave over the business cycle?

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