Exam 4: Inductive Arguments

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Choose one of Mill's methods: the method of difference, the method of agreement or similarity, or the joint method of agreement and difference. Explain how the method is used to determine causation, using your own example.

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I choose the method of difference. This method is used to determine causation by comparing situations where the effect is present with situations where the effect is absent, and then identifying the factor that is present only in the situations with the effect.

For example, let's say we want to determine the cause of a decrease in sales for a particular product. We can compare different time periods or regions where the sales decreased with those where the sales remained steady. By identifying the factor that is present only in the situations with decreased sales, we can determine the likely cause of the decrease.

In this example, we might find that the decrease in sales is only present in regions where a competitor launched a similar product. This would suggest that the competitor's product is the likely cause of the decrease in sales for our product.

Overall, the method of difference is a useful tool for determining causation by isolating the factor that is present only when the effect occurs.

What is an example of the use of statistics to make predictions and decisions in our daily lives?

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Many examples could be correct here. Look for a specific statistical example and an application to daily life. Examples: Statistics about the number of smokers who die of lung cancer and related diseases can help us determine whether we wish to smoke. Statistics about the rate of fatal car accidents on New Year's Eve can make us decide not to drive long distances that night.

What is randomness and why is it important in statistical research?

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Randomness means that every member of a target population has an equal chance of being chosen as part of the sample. Random samples make research representative of the target population, so they are the factor that makes a conclusion accurate within a small percentage point of possible error.

Matching -The group that is studied by a researcher.

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For the following statements and arguments, choose which one of the following statements best describe the evidence: -Thanks to those of you (2000 of our subscribers!) who participated in our recent survey (January issue) on happiness in marriage-the results showed that people are happy and content in their marriages-especially if they have children and if the mother can stay home or work only part time. (women's magazine) Conclusion: People are happy and content in their marriages-especially if they have children and if the mother can stay home or work only part time.

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For the following statements and arguments, choose which one of the following statements best describe the evidence: -The style and grace of the west is embodied in Phoenix stoneware. (from an ad) Conclusion: the style and grace of the west is embodied in Phoenix stoneware.

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A sample is biased when

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Several patients are found to be allergic to peanut oil (X). X is the only food causing the patients to have a reaction (Y). And in every case in which X is eaten, the reaction (Y) occurs. This scenario reflects:

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For the following statements and arguments, choose which one of the following statements best describe the evidence: -I've known six different Chinese kids in six different classes. Each one of them was at the top of the class. Chinese kids do really well in school. Conclusion: Chinese kids do really well in school.

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Matching -A combination of factors leading to a specific effect.

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Matching -Group about which a researcher wishes to generalize.

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For the following statements and arguments, choose which one of the following statements best describe the evidence: -Four out of five doctors recommend Painfree for headaches. (ad) Conclusion: Four out of five doctors recommend Painfree for headaches.

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For the following statements and arguments, choose which one of the following statements best describe the evidence: -My wife and I both come from Italian families and we're big "touchers"; our neighbors, who are British, aren't very affectionate with us or our children. So, you can see that Italians are "touchers" and the British are colder people. (from a relative) Conclusion: Italians are "touchers" and the British are colder people.

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For the following statements and arguments, choose which one of the following statements best describe the evidence: -Primmusk is the perfume of models. Both Susie Que and Misty Jones use it. (from an ad in a women's magazine) Conclusion: Primmusk is the perfume of models.

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Define sample, using an example.

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Matching -A factor that led up to but did not alone create the effect.

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Neilson ratings are statistics used by advertisers to determine which shows have a high number of viewers.

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When a sample is representative, the people studies are like the people about whom you wish to generalize.

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For the following statements and arguments, choose which one of the following statements best describe the evidence: -The typical American male eats 20 pounds of sugar per year. (a magazine commentary) Conclusion: The typical American male eats 20 pounds of sugar per year.

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What are two reasons why we look for the causes of problems?

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