Question 1

When all stages of a supply chain produce a collaborative forecast,it tends to be much more accurate.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 2

The measure of how significantly a forecast method consistently over- or underestimates demand is

Accepted Answer

A)  mean squared error (MS
E) . 
B)  mean absolute deviation (MA
D) . 
C)  mean absolute percentage error (MAP
E) . 
D)  bias. 
E)  the tracking signal. 
A)  mean squared error (MS
E) . 
B)  mean absolute deviation (MA
D) . 
C)  mean absolute percentage error (MAP
E) . 
D)  bias. 
E)  the tracking signal.

Question 3

In adaptive forecasting,the estimates of level,trend,and seasonality are updated after each demand observation.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 4

The mixed form of the systematic component of demand is shown as

Accepted Answer

A)  level × trend × seasonal factor. 
B)  level + trend + seasonal factor. 
C)  (level + trend) × seasonal factor. 
D)  level × (trend + seasonal factor). 
E)  (level × trend) + seasonal factor. 
A)  level × trend × seasonal factor. 
B)  level + trend + seasonal factor. 
C)  (level + trend) × seasonal factor. 
D)  level × (trend + seasonal factor). 
E)  (level × trend) + seasonal factor.

Question 5

Collaborative forecasting based on sales to the end customer can help enterprises further up the supply chain reduce forecast error.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 6

For push processes,a manager must forecast what customer demand will be in order to

Accepted Answer

A)  plan the service level. 
B)  plan the level of available capacity and inventory. 
C)  plan the level of productivity. 
D)  plan the level of production. 
E)  none of the above 
A)  plan the service level. 
B)  plan the level of available capacity and inventory. 
C)  plan the level of productivity. 
D)  plan the level of production. 
E)  none of the above

Question 7

Forecasts are always right.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 8

The moving average forecast method is used when

Accepted Answer

A)  demand has observable trend or seasonality. 
B)  demand has no observable trend or seasonality. 
C)  demand has observable trend and seasonality. 
D)  demand has no observable level or seasonality. 
E)  none of the above 
A)  demand has observable trend or seasonality. 
B)  demand has no observable trend or seasonality. 
C)  demand has observable trend and seasonality. 
D)  demand has no observable level or seasonality. 
E)  none of the above

Question 9

Long-term forecasts have a larger standard deviation of error relative to the mean than short-term forecasts.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 10

The basis for all strategic and planning decisions in a supply chain comes from

Accepted Answer

A)  the forecast of demand. 
B)  sales targets. 
C)  profitability projections. 
D)  production efficiency goals. 
E)  all of the above 
A)  the forecast of demand. 
B)  sales targets. 
C)  profitability projections. 
D)  production efficiency goals. 
E)  all of the above

Question 11

Forecasts should include both the expected value of the forecast and a measure of forecast error.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 12

One of the characteristics of forecasts is

Accepted Answer

A)  aggregate forecasts are usually more accurate than disaggregate forecasts. 
B)  disaggregate forecasts are usually more accurate than aggregate forecasts. 
C)  short-term forecasts are usually less accurate than long-term forecasts. 
D)  long-term forecasts are usually more accurate than short-term forecasts. 
E)  none of the above 
A)  aggregate forecasts are usually more accurate than disaggregate forecasts. 
B)  disaggregate forecasts are usually more accurate than aggregate forecasts. 
C)  short-term forecasts are usually less accurate than long-term forecasts. 
D)  long-term forecasts are usually more accurate than short-term forecasts. 
E)  none of the above

Question 13

Using data from the previous problem,calculate the monthly forecast for 2003 using simple exponential smoothing with an α = .2.Calculate the MAD and the tracking signal.How does this forecast compare with the previous one?

Accepted Answer

@#IMG-DLM& The simple exponential smoothing has a

Question 14

Which forecasting methods are the simplest to implement and can serve as a good starting point for a demand forecast?

Accepted Answer

A)  Qualitative forecasting methods 
B)  Time series forecasting methods 
C)  Causal forecasting methods 
D)  Simulation forecasting methods 
E)  none of the above 
A)  Qualitative forecasting methods 
B)  Time series forecasting methods 
C)  Causal forecasting methods 
D)  Simulation forecasting methods 
E)  none of the above

Question 15

Weekly demand for pairs of pants at a Hot Tropic store is as follows:
   
Estimate demand for the week 13 using a four-week moving average as well as simple exponential smoothing with α=0.1.Evaluate the MAD for each case.Which of the two methods do you prefer? Why? NOTE: For the simple exponential smoothing use the actual from the first period as the forecast for the first period.

Accepted Answer

@#IMG-DLM& The Exponential smoothing met

Question 16

Given the following data for demand at the XYZ Company,calculate the monthly forecast for 2003 using a 3-month moving average.Calculate the MAD and the tracking signal.Is this a good forecast?

Accepted Answer

@#IMG-DLM& The standard deviation of the

Question 17

Production can utilize forecasts to make decisions concerning

Accepted Answer

A)  scheduling. 
B)  sales-force allocation. 
C)  promotions. 
D)  new product introduction. 
E)  budgetary planning. 
A)  scheduling. 
B)  sales-force allocation. 
C)  promotions. 
D)  new product introduction. 
E)  budgetary planning.

Question 18

Time series forecasting methods are based on the assumption that past demand history is a good indicator of future demand.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 19

Discuss key issues of forecasting in practice.

Accepted Answer

Collaborate in building forecasts.Collab

Question 20

Aggregate forecasts are usually more accurate than disaggregate forecasts,as they tend to have a smaller standard deviation of error relative to the mean.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

When all stages of a supply chain produce a collaborative forecast,it tends to be much more accurate.

The measure of how significantly a forecast method consistently over- or underestimates demand is

In adaptive forecasting,the estimates of level,trend,and seasonality are updated after each demand observation.

The mixed form of the systematic component of demand is shown as

Collaborative forecasting based on sales to the end customer can help enterprises further up the supply chain reduce forecast error.

For push processes,a manager must forecast what customer demand will be in order to

Forecasts are always right.

The moving average forecast method is used when

Long-term forecasts have a larger standard deviation of error relative to the mean than short-term forecasts.

The basis for all strategic and planning decisions in a supply chain comes from

Forecasts should include both the expected value of the forecast and a measure of forecast error.

One of the characteristics of forecasts is

Using data from the previous problem,calculate the monthly forecast for 2003 using simple exponential smoothing with an α = .2.Calculate the MAD and the tracking signal.How does this forecast compare with the previous one?

Which forecasting methods are the simplest to implement and can serve as a good starting point for a demand forecast?

Given the following data for demand at the XYZ Company,calculate the monthly forecast for 2003 using a 3-month moving average.Calculate the MAD and the tracking signal.Is this a good forecast?

Production can utilize forecasts to make decisions concerning

Time series forecasting methods are based on the assumption that past demand history is a good indicator of future demand.

Discuss key issues of forecasting in practice.

Aggregate forecasts are usually more accurate than disaggregate forecasts,as they tend to have a smaller standard deviation of error relative to the mean.

Understanding the Supply Chain

Supply Chain Performance: Achieving Strategic Fit and Scope

Supply Chain Drivers and Metrics

Designing Distribution Networks and Applications to E-Business

Network Design in the Supply Chain

Designing Global Supply Chain Networks

Aggregate Planning in a Supply Chain

Sales and Operations Planning: Planning Supply and Demand in a Supply Chain

Coordination in a Supply Chain

Managing Economies of Scale in the Supply Chain: Cycle Inventory

Managing Uncertainty in a Supply Chain: Safety Inventory

Determining the Optimal Level of Product Availability

Transportation in a Supply Chain

Sourcing Decisions in a Supply Chain

Pricing and Revenue Management in a Supply Chain

Information Technology in a Supply Chain

Sustainability and the Supply Chain

Filters

Exam 7: Demand Forecasting in a Supply Chain

When all stages of a supply chain produce a collaborative forecast,it tends to be much more accurate.

The measure of how significantly a forecast method consistently over- or underestimates demand is

In adaptive forecasting,the estimates of level,trend,and seasonality are updated after each demand observation.

The mixed form of the systematic component of demand is shown as

Collaborative forecasting based on sales to the end customer can help enterprises further up the supply chain reduce forecast error.

For push processes,a manager must forecast what customer demand will be in order to

Forecasts are always right.

The moving average forecast method is used when

Long-term forecasts have a larger standard deviation of error relative to the mean than short-term forecasts.

The basis for all strategic and planning decisions in a supply chain comes from

Forecasts should include both the expected value of the forecast and a measure of forecast error.

One of the characteristics of forecasts is

Using data from the previous problem,calculate the monthly forecast for 2003 using simple exponential smoothing with an α = .2.Calculate the MAD and the tracking signal.How does this forecast compare with the previous one?

Which forecasting methods are the simplest to implement and can serve as a good starting point for a demand forecast?

Given the following data for demand at the XYZ Company,calculate the monthly forecast for 2003 using a 3-month moving average.Calculate the MAD and the tracking signal.Is this a good forecast?

Production can utilize forecasts to make decisions concerning

Time series forecasting methods are based on the assumption that past demand history is a good indicator of future demand.

Discuss key issues of forecasting in practice.

Aggregate forecasts are usually more accurate than disaggregate forecasts,as they tend to have a smaller standard deviation of error relative to the mean.

Understanding the Supply Chain

Supply Chain Performance: Achieving Strategic Fit and Scope

Supply Chain Drivers and Metrics

Designing Distribution Networks and Applications to E-Business

Network Design in the Supply Chain

Designing Global Supply Chain Networks

Aggregate Planning in a Supply Chain

Sales and Operations Planning: Planning Supply and Demand in a Supply Chain

Coordination in a Supply Chain

Managing Economies of Scale in the Supply Chain: Cycle Inventory

Managing Uncertainty in a Supply Chain: Safety Inventory

Determining the Optimal Level of Product Availability

Transportation in a Supply Chain

Sourcing Decisions in a Supply Chain

Pricing and Revenue Management in a Supply Chain

Information Technology in a Supply Chain

Sustainability and the Supply Chain

Filters