Exam 9: Forecasting

Heidi runs a multiple regression for the output of cheese curds by using the daily temperature and the consumption of sweet clover.The intercept term is 23,the slope coefficient for the daily temperature is 1.5 and the slope coefficient for the consumption of sweet clover is 0.Which of these conclusions is most appropriate?

Develop forecasts for periods 7 through 10 for the demand data in the table using a three period moving average,a weighted moving average using 0.6,0.3,and 0.1,and exponential smoothing with alpha = 0.7.Use a 6^th period forecast of 135 as the starting point for the exponential smoothing technique.

The slope of the regression equation is positive if the r-squared value is greater than 0.0.

Which of these forecasts is the BEST?

McMahon and Tate advertising company is interested in an appropriate mix of print,radio,and television ads for their new client.Darrin Stevens performs a multiple regression on the effects of dollars spent on each type of media on dollars of sales of product.Darrin uses data from the most recent advertising campaigns and develops the following equation: y = 254,215 + 6.79 × Print - 1.4 × Radio + 16.87 × Television The r-squared statistic is 0.77.Which of the following statements is best?

The tracking signal calculated for the first forecast is always either +1 or -1.

A counseling service records the number of calls to their hotline for the last year.What is the forecast for March if an adjusted exponential smoothing model is used with α=0.8 and β=0.7? The unadjusted forecast for January is 123.5.

A collaborative planning,forecasting and replenishment system eliminates the need for forecasting.

Supply chain partners might use a(n)________ to develop joint sales and operations plans and projections of output if they have agreed on a common set of objectives.

What are the laws of forecasting and what are their implications for operations and supply chain managers?

The Pancake House did a brisk business on the weekend and the maître d' was always on the lookout for ways to improve the customer experience.He carefully tracked the number of customers that graced their establishment over the last four weekends.He was hopeful that he could forecast the number of customers that would come for the world's finest pancakes the next weekend. Using the data in the table,first plot the data and comment on the appearance of the demand pattern.Then develop a forecast for weekend #5 that fits the data.

A firm's demand data from the last two quarter is displayed in the table.Use a three period weighted moving average with W_t = 0.7,W_t-1 = 0.2,and W_t-2 = 0.1 to forecast demand for July.

A seasonal pattern in time series data is evident when the level of the variable of interest moves erratically up or down from one period to the next.

A counseling service records the number of calls to their hotline for the last year.Based on MAD,which of these models does the best job of forecasting?

A seasonal index less than 1.0 means that the model is overforecasted.

A poultry farmer that dabbles in statistics is interested in exploring the relationship between two types of feed,layer pellets and scratch,water,and the output of his laying hens.For ten days he records the number of ounces of layer pellets and scratch the hens consume and the number of fluid ounces of water and tracks the number of eggs that are produced.What is his regression equation based on the data?

Fed up with her working conditions at the call center,Lisa decides to invest in a state-of-the-art sewing machine and produce limited quantities of her own clothing designs.After a few months of operation,she decides to apply some of the forecasting techniques she mastered in school.Which of these statements about her forecasts is correct?

A counseling service records the number of calls to their hotline for the last year.What is the forecast for July if the service uses a simple moving average of three periods?

Multiple regression was used to forecast success in college (GPA)based upon SAT score,high school GPA,and hours spent on-line.Use the regression output shown and comment on the overall fit of the model,the usefulness of each independent variable,and the value to an admissions department of using the model to make admission decisions.What is the model's forecast for an applicant having a high school GPA of 2.5 and an SAT score of 1000 that spends 20 hours a week on-line? What other variables do you feel would make good indicators of college GPA?

A qualitative forecasting technique in which individuals familiar with specific market segments estimate the demand within these sectors that are then summed to get an overall forecast is called a: