Exam 22: Real Options

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Adjusted present value of project (APV)= NPV (without abandonment option)+ value of abandonment option.

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How can managers take advantage of real options? Briefly explain.

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A rational manager may be reluctant to commit to a positive net present value project when:

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Real options cannot be valued using the risk-neutral method since real assets do not trade in a liquid market where prices are readily observable and arbitrage opportunities are exploited immediately.

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The risk-neutral approach is an application of the certainty equivalent method.

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An abandonment option,in effect,

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How does a large firm like Intel hold a natural real option on a new technology,whereas a smaller firm would not have the same option if they owned the same technology?

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Permanently rejecting an investment today might not be a good choice because: I.the size of the firm will decline; II.there are always errors in the estimation of NPVs; III.the project's real option value is negative; IV.the company is forgoing the option to make the investment in the future if economic and industry conditions change for the better

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A project is worth $15 million today without an abandonment option.Suppose the value of the project is either $20 million one year from today (if product demand is high)or $10 million (if product demand is low).It is possible to sell off the project for $13 million if product demand is low.Calculate the value of the abandonment option if the discount rate is 5% per year.

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Explain the main difference between the Black-Scholes formula and the binomial method.How does this relate to real options analysis?

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A project is worth $12 million today without an abandonment option.Suppose the value of the project is either $18 million one year from today (if product demand is high)or $8 million (if product demand is low).It is possible to sell off the project for $10 million if product demand is low.Calculate the value of the abandonment option if the discount rate is 5% per year.

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If an oil well allows the investor the option to drill later,what must happen for the option to be exercised?

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Briefly explain how temporary abandonment can be thought of as a complex option.

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Suppose that the oil price is uncertain and can be $60/bbl.or $30/bbl.next year with equal probability.Then the value of the option to postpone the project by one year equals:

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A firm has a two-year real option to invest in a project that has a present value of $400 million with an exercise price (in year 2)of $600 million.Calculate the value of the option given that N(d1)= 0.6 and N(d2)= 0.4.Assume that the risk-free interest rate is 6% per year.

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The discounted cash-flow (DCF)approach should be:

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What are the four main types of real options?

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Which of the following statements about the option to build flexibility into production facilities is true?

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In real options,the required investment is considered the exercise price.

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The following are practical challenges in applying real-options analysis: I.Real options can be complex. II.The real options problems may not be well structured. III.Competition may reduce or change the value of real options.

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