Exam 22: Real Options

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Briefly explain how abandonment value can be used to help determine project life.

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The option to make a follow-on investment is a put option.

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A firm has a three-year real option to invest in a project that has a present value of $500 million with an exercise price (in year 3)of $800 million.Calculate the value of the option given that N(d1)= 0.3 and N(d2)= 0.15.Assume that the risk-free interest rate is 6% per year.

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Temporary abandonment is a very simple real option that allows the firm to stop a project temporarily until conditions improve.

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The option to expand is a type of financial option.

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In terms of real options,the cash flows from the project play the same role as:

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Suppose that the oil price is uncertain and can be either $60/bbl.or $30/bbl.next year with equal probability.Calculate the expected NPV of the project if it is postponed by one year.

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An example of a real option is:

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Consider an electric utility that may use either coal or natural gas to generate electricity.Under which of the following conditions is co-firing equipment most valuable? Let ac be the annual standard deviation of coal prices,and let an be the annual standard deviation of natural gas prices and p the correlation between coal prices and natural gas prices.

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You are considering making a "Hillary" action figure to capitalize on popular political fever.Production will cost $5 million.If political fever strikes,you will sell action figures worth $20 million (in present value (PV)).If voters do not catch the political fever,you will only sell action figures worth $2 million (in PV)as only loyal Democrats will buy.Each possibility has a 50% chance.However,before production begins,you can conduct a marketing survey to determine which scenario will happen.The survey costs $1 million.Is it worth conducting the survey? Why?

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The owner of a pro-football team expects the team to be worth either $270 million next year or $120 million,depending on whether or not she gets the city to build a new stadium.There is a 60% chance she will get a new stadium.There is a buyer willing to pay $175 million for the team right now.However,the buyer will keep his offer open-until the stadium issue is resolved-if offered some form of compensation.Given a discount rate of 7%,how much should she be willing to pay the potential buyer for a one-year option to sell the team (round to the nearest $1 million)?

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In an acquisition,the target firm may demand compensation from the acquiring firm if the deal falls through.The acquiring firm's compensation is for the payment of a form of a real call option.

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Explain the difference between the value of a project and the value of real options associated with a project.

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An electric utility plant that can operate on either oil or natural gas is an example of flexibility in production.

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How does an option to wait or postpone a project add value to the project?

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Assume the following data for Project X: NPV of the project without abandonment: -$2 million; abandonment option value: $4 million.Calculate the adjusted present value (APV)of the project.

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Real options analysis can be used to link project life to the performance of the project.

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Briefly explain the implied assumption when the risk-neutral method is used for valuing real options.

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The opportunity to defer investing to a later date may have value because: I.the cost of capital may increase in the near future; II.uncertainty may be increased in the future; III.the project has positive,short-term cash flows; IV.market conditions may change and increase the NPV of the project

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