Exam 6: International Parity Relationships and Forecasting Foreign Exchange Rates

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The price of a McDonald's Big Mac sandwich

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If the interest rate in the U.S.is i$ = 5 percent for the next year and interest rate in the U.K.is i£ = 8 percent for the next year,uncovered IRP suggests that

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A currency dealer has good credit and can borrow either $1,000,000 or €800,000 for one year.The one-year interest rate in the U.S.is i$ = 2% and in the euro zone the one-year interest rate is i = 6%.The spot exchange rate is $1.25 = €1.00 and the one-year forward exchange rate is $1.20 = €1.00.Show how to realize a certain profit via covered interest arbitrage.

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According to the research in the accuracy of paid exchange rate forecasters,

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Suppose that the annual interest rate is 5.0 percent in the United States and 3.5 percent in Germany,and that the spot exchange rate is $1.12/€ and the forward exchange rate,with one-year maturity,is $1.16/€.Assume that an arbitrager can borrow up to $1,000,000.If an astute trader finds an arbitrage,what is the net cash flow in one year?

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The random walk hypothesis suggests that

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The moving average crossover rule

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Assume that you are a retail customer (i.e.,you buy at the ask and sell at the bid).Use the information below to answer the following question. Bid ASK APR (\ /) \ 1.42=1.00 \1 .45=1.00 i\ 4\% (\ /) \ 1.48=1.00 \1 .50=1.00 i3\% If you borrowed $1,000,000 for one year,how much money would you owe at maturity?

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Assume that you are a retail customer.Use the information below to answer the following question. Bid Ask Borrowing Lending (\ /) \ 1.42=1.00 \ 1.45=1.00 i\ 4.25\% 4\% (\ /\epsilon) \ 1.48=1.00 \ 1.50=1.00 i 3.10\% 3\% If you borrowed $1,000,000 for one year,how much money would you owe at maturity?

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Generating exchange rate forecasts with the fundamental approach involves

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As of today,the spot exchange rate is €1.00 = $1.60 and the rates of inflation expected to prevail for the next year in the U.S.is 2 percent and 3 percent in the euro zone.What is the one-year forward rate that should prevail?

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An arbitrage is best defined as

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Although IRP tends to hold,it may not hold precisely all the time

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Governments sometimes restrict capital flows,inbound and/or outbound.They achieve this objective by means of

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According to the monetary approach,what matters in exchange rate determination are

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Suppose that the one-year interest rate is 5.0 percent in the United States; the spot exchange rate is $1.20/€; and the one-year forward exchange rate is $1.16/€.What must the one-year interest rate be in the euro zone to avoid arbitrage?

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Suppose you observe a spot exchange rate of $1.0500/€.If interest rates are 3 percent APR in the U.S.and 5 percent APR in the euro zone,what is the no-arbitrage 1-year forward rate?

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A higher U.S.interest rate (i$ ↑)relative to interest rates abroad,ceteris paribus,will result in

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How high does the lending rate in the euro zone have to be before an arbitrageur would not consider borrowing dollars,trading for euro at the spot,investing in the euro zone and hedging with a short position in the forward contract? Bid Ask Borrowing Lending (\ /) \ 1.40-1.00 \ 1.43-1.00 i\ 4.20\% 4.10\% \ 1.44-1.00 \ 1.49-1.00 i

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Assume that you are a retail customer.Use the information below to answer the following question. Bid Ask Borrowing Lending (\ /) \ 1.40=1.00 \ 1.43=1.00 i\ 4.20\% 4.10\% (\ /\epsilon) \ 1.44=1.00 \ 1.49=1.00 i 3.65\% 3.50\% If you borrowed €1,000,000 for one year,how much money would you owe at maturity?

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