Exam 6: International Parity Relationships and Forecasting Foreign Exchange Rates

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As of today, the spot exchange rate is €1.00 = $1.25 and the rates of inflation expected to prevail for the next year in the U.S. is 2% and 3% in the euro zone. What is the one-year forward rate that should prevail?

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With regard to fundamental forecasting versus technical forecasting of exchange rates

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If you borrowed $1,000,000 for one year, how much money would you owe at maturity?

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If you had borrowed $1,000,000 and traded for euro at the spot rate, how many € do you receive?

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How high does the lending rate in the euro zone have to be before an arbitrageur would NOT consider borrowing dollars, trading for euro at the spot, investing in the euro zone and hedging with a short position in the forward contract? How high does the lending rate in the euro zone have to be before an arbitrageur would NOT consider borrowing dollars, trading for euro at the spot, investing in the euro zone and hedging with a short position in the forward contract?

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There is (at least) one profitable arbitrage at these prices. What is it?

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If you had borrowed $1,000,000 and traded for euro at the spot rate, how many € do you receive?

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USING YOUR PREVIOUS ANSWERS and a bit more work, find the 1-year forward exchange rate in $ per € that satisfies IRP from the perspective of a customer that borrowed $1m traded for € at the spot and invested at i = 4%.

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A higher U.S. interest rate (i$ ↑) will result in

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The moving average crossover rule

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Which of the following is a true statement?

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The benefit to forecasting exchange rates

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The International Fisher Effect suggests that

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If you borrowed €1,000,000 for one year, how much money would you owe at maturity?

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If you had €1,000,000 and traded it for USD at the spot rate, how many USD will you get?

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According to the research in the accuracy of paid exchange rate forecasters,

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USING YOUR PREVIOUS ANSWERS and a bit more work, find the 1-year forward ASK exchange rate in $ per € that that satisfies IRP from the perspective of a customer.

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An Italian currency dealer has good credit and can borrow €800,000 for one year. The one-year interest rate in the U.S. is i$ = 2% and in the euro zone the one-year interest rate is i = 6%. The spot exchange rate is $1.25 = €1.00 and the one-year forward exchange rate is $1.20 = €1.00. Show how to realize a certain euro-denominated profit via covered interest arbitrage.

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There is (at least) one profitable arbitrage at these prices. What is it?

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Some commodities never enter into international trade. Examples include

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