Question 1

Using a three-month moving average,the forecast value for November in the following time series is ____________.

Accepted Answer

A)  11.60 
B)  10.00 
C)  9.67 
D)  8.60 
E)  6.00 
A)  11.60 
B)  10.00 
C)  9.67 
D)  8.60 
E)  6.00

Question 2

When constructing a weighted aggregate price index,the weights usually are _____.

Accepted Answer

A)  prices of substitute items 
B)  prices of complementary items 
C)  quantities of the respective items 
D)  squared quantities of the respective items 
E)  quality of individual items 
A)  prices of substitute items 
B)  prices of complementary items 
C)  quantities of the respective items 
D)  squared quantities of the respective items 
E)  quality of individual items

Question 3

If autocorrelation occurs in regression analysis,then the confidence intervals and tests using the t and F distributions are no longer strictly applicable.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 4

A time series analysis was performed to determine the number of new online customers that joined the 'Jelly of the Month Club'. The actual number of new customers,the forecast values and error terms is presented in the following table. The mean error (ME)for this forecast is ___________.

Accepted Answer

A)  -0.50 
B)  0.50 
C)  1.50 
D)  7.00 
E)  3.00 
A)  -0.50 
B)  0.50 
C)  1.50 
D)  7.00 
E)  3.00

Question 5

Analysis of data for an autoregressive forecasting model produced the following tables.     The actual values of this time series,y,were 228,54,and 191 for May,June,and July,respectively.The forecast value predicted by the model for July is __________.

Accepted Answer

A)  -101.00 
B)  104.54 
C)  218.71 
D)  21.56 
E)  -77.81 
A)  -101.00 
B)  104.54 
C)  218.71 
D)  21.56 
E)  -77.81

Question 6

Fitting a linear trend to 36 monthly data points (January 2011 = 1,February 2011 =2,March 2011 = 3,etc.)produced the following tables.     The projected trend value for January 2014 is ________.

Accepted Answer

A)  544.29 
B)  868.61 
C)  652.39 
D)  760.50 
E)  876.90 
A)  544.29 
B)  868.61 
C)  652.39 
D)  760.50 
E)  876.90

Question 7

Use of a smoothing constant value less than 0.5 in an exponential smoothing model gives more weight to ___________.

Accepted Answer

A)  the actual value for the current period 
B)  the actual value for the previous period 
C)  the forecast for the current period 
D)  the forecast for the previous period 
E)  the forecast for the next period 
A)  the actual value for the current period 
B)  the actual value for the previous period 
C)  the forecast for the current period 
D)  the forecast for the previous period 
E)  the forecast for the next period

Question 8

The following graph of a time-series data suggests a _______________ trend.

Accepted Answer

A)  linear 
B)  tangential 
C)  cosine 
D)  quadratic 
E)  flat 
A)  linear 
B)  tangential 
C)  cosine 
D)  quadratic 
E)  flat

Question 9

Jim Royo,manager of Billings Building Supply (BBS),wants to develop a model to forecast BBS's monthly sales (in $1,000's). He selects the dollar value of residential building permits (in $10,000)as the predictor variable. An analysis of the data yielded the following tables.     
Jim's calculated value for the Durbin-Watson statistic is 1.93. Using $\alpha$ = 0.05,the appropriate decision is: _________.

Accepted Answer

A)  do not reject H0: $\rho$ = 0 
B)  reject H0:$\rho$≠ 0 
C)  do not reject: $\rho$ $\neq$ 0 
D)  the test is inconclusive 
E)  reject H0: $\rho$ = 0 
A)  do not reject H0: $\rho$ = 0 
B)  reject H0:$\rho$≠ 0 
C)  do not reject: $\rho$ $\neq$ 0 
D)  the test is inconclusive 
E)  reject H0: $\rho$ = 0

Question 10

A time series with forecast values is presented in the following table:   If the mean square error (MSE)until September is 0.01125,and the overall MSE is 0.010125,
Then x = ______.

Accepted Answer

A)  1.15 
B)  1.25 
C)  1.3 
D)  1.25 or 1.3 
E)  1.2 or 1.35 
A)  1.15 
B)  1.25 
C)  1.3 
D)  1.25 or 1.3 
E)  1.2 or 1.35

Question 11

An exponential smoothing technique in which the smoothing constant alpha is equal to one is equivalent to a regression forecasting model.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 12

Two popular general categories of smoothing techniques are exponential models and logarithmic models.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 13

Using 2011 as the base year,the 2010 value of the Paasche' Price Index is ______.

Accepted Answer

A)  99.79 
B)  192.51 
C)  100.29 
D)  59.19 
E)  39.99 
A)  99.79 
B)  192.51 
C)  100.29 
D)  59.19 
E)  39.99

Question 14

A time series with forecast values is presented in the following table:   On this table,a is some nondisclosed value.The mean absolute deviation (MAD)
Is ______% of a.

Accepted Answer

A)  6a 
B)  0.06a 
C)  6 
D)  0.06 
E)  4.8 
A)  6a 
B)  0.06a 
C)  6 
D)  0.06 
E)  4.8

Question 15

If the trend equation is quadratic in time t=1….T,the forecast value for the next time T+1 depends on time T.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 16

Jim Royo,manager of Billings Building Supply (BBS),wants to develop a model to forecast BBS's monthly sales (in $1,000's). He selects the dollar value of residential building permits (in $10,000)as the predictor variable. An analysis of the data yielded the following tables.     
Using $\alpha$ = 0.05 the critical value of the Durbin-Watson statistic,dL, is _________.

Accepted Answer

A)  1.24 
B)  1.22 
C)  1.13 
D)  1.15 
E)  1.85 
A)  1.24 
B)  1.22 
C)  1.13 
D)  1.15 
E)  1.85

Question 17

Linear regression models cannot be used to analyze quadratic trends in time-series data.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 18

The table below shows the prices in $ and quantities (thousands)for five specialized electronic components for 2000 and 2016.   The Laspeyres price index for 2016 using 2000 as base year is ______.

Accepted Answer

A)  136.25 
B)  137.33 
C)  138.75 
D)  139.25 
E)  140.33 
A)  136.25 
B)  137.33 
C)  138.75 
D)  139.25 
E)  140.33

Question 19

The city golf course is interested in starting a junior golf program.The golf pro has collected data on the number of youths under 13 that have played golf during the last 4 months.Using a three-month moving average,the forecast value for November in the following time series would be ____________.

Accepted Answer

A)  24 
B)  21 
C)  21.56 
D)  19.22 
E)  22 
A)  24 
B)  21 
C)  21.56 
D)  19.22 
E)  22

Question 20

Suppose that for a time-series model,you compute a Durbin-Watson statistic D = 0.625.Assume that n = 30 and α = 0.05.Then your decision is ______.

Accepted Answer

A)  fail to reject the null hypothesis D = 0 
B)  reject the null hypothesis D = 0 
C)  fail to reject the null hypothesis ρ = 0 
D)  reject the null hypothesis ρ = 0 
E)  fail to reject the null hypothesis ρ > 0 
A)  fail to reject the null hypothesis D = 0 
B)  reject the null hypothesis D = 0 
C)  fail to reject the null hypothesis ρ = 0 
D)  reject the null hypothesis ρ = 0 
E)  fail to reject the null hypothesis ρ > 0

Using a three-month moving average,the forecast value for November in the following time series is ____________.

When constructing a weighted aggregate price index,the weights usually are _____.

If autocorrelation occurs in regression analysis,then the confidence intervals and tests using the t and F distributions are no longer strictly applicable.

A time series analysis was performed to determine the number of new online customers that joined the 'Jelly of the Month Club'. The actual number of new customers,the forecast values and error terms is presented in the following table. The mean error (ME)for this forecast is ___________.

Analysis of data for an autoregressive forecasting model produced the following tables. The actual values of this time series,y,were 228,54,and 191 for May,June,and July,respectively.The forecast value predicted by the model for July is __________.

Fitting a linear trend to 36 monthly data points (January 2011 = 1,February 2011 =2,March 2011 = 3,etc.)produced the following tables. The projected trend value for January 2014 is ________.

Use of a smoothing constant value less than 0.5 in an exponential smoothing model gives more weight to ___________.

The following graph of a time-series data suggests a _______________ trend.

A time series with forecast values is presented in the following table: If the mean square error (MSE)until September is 0.01125,and the overall MSE is 0.010125, Then x = ______.

An exponential smoothing technique in which the smoothing constant alpha is equal to one is equivalent to a regression forecasting model.

Two popular general categories of smoothing techniques are exponential models and logarithmic models.

Using 2011 as the base year,the 2010 value of the Paasche' Price Index is ______.

A time series with forecast values is presented in the following table: On this table,a is some nondisclosed value.The mean absolute deviation (MAD) Is ______% of a.

If the trend equation is quadratic in time t=1….T,the forecast value for the next time T+1 depends on time T.

Linear regression models cannot be used to analyze quadratic trends in time-series data.

The table below shows the prices in $ and quantities (thousands)for five specialized electronic components for 2000 and 2016. The Laspeyres price index for 2016 using 2000 as base year is ______.

The city golf course is interested in starting a junior golf program.The golf pro has collected data on the number of youths under 13 that have played golf during the last 4 months.Using a three-month moving average,the forecast value for November in the following time series would be ____________.

Suppose that for a time-series model,you compute a Durbin-Watson statistic D = 0.625.Assume that n = 30 and α = 0.05.Then your decision is ______.

Introduction to Statistics

Charts and Graphs

Descriptive Statistics

Probability

Discrete Distributions

Continuous Distributions

Sampling and Sampling Distributions

Statistical Inference: Estimation for Single Populations

Statistical Inference: Hypothesis Testing for Single Populations

Statistical Inferences About Two Populations

A Nalysis of Variance and Design of Experiments

Simple Regression Analysis and Correlation

Multiple Regression Analysis

Building Multiple Regression Models

Analysis of Categorical Data

Nonparametric Statistics

Statistical Quality Control

Decision Analysis

Filters

Exam 15: Time-Series Forecasting and Index Numbers

Using a three-month moving average,the forecast value for November in the following time series is ____________.

When constructing a weighted aggregate price index,the weights usually are _____.

If autocorrelation occurs in regression analysis,then the confidence intervals and tests using the t and F distributions are no longer strictly applicable.

A time series analysis was performed to determine the number of new online customers that joined the 'Jelly of the Month Club'. The actual number of new customers,the forecast values and error terms is presented in the following table. The mean error (ME)for this forecast is ___________.

Analysis of data for an autoregressive forecasting model produced the following tables. The actual values of this time series,y,were 228,54,and 191 for May,June,and July,respectively.The forecast value predicted by the model for July is __________.

Fitting a linear trend to 36 monthly data points (January 2011 = 1,February 2011 =2,March 2011 = 3,etc.)produced the following tables. The projected trend value for January 2014 is ________.

Use of a smoothing constant value less than 0.5 in an exponential smoothing model gives more weight to ___________.

The following graph of a time-series data suggests a _______________ trend.

A time series with forecast values is presented in the following table: If the mean square error (MSE)until September is 0.01125,and the overall MSE is 0.010125, Then x = ______.

An exponential smoothing technique in which the smoothing constant alpha is equal to one is equivalent to a regression forecasting model.

Two popular general categories of smoothing techniques are exponential models and logarithmic models.

Using 2011 as the base year,the 2010 value of the Paasche' Price Index is ______.

A time series with forecast values is presented in the following table: On this table,a is some nondisclosed value.The mean absolute deviation (MAD) Is ______% of a.

If the trend equation is quadratic in time t=1….T,the forecast value for the next time T+1 depends on time T.

Linear regression models cannot be used to analyze quadratic trends in time-series data.

The table below shows the prices in $ and quantities (thousands)for five specialized electronic components for 2000 and 2016. The Laspeyres price index for 2016 using 2000 as base year is ______.

The city golf course is interested in starting a junior golf program.The golf pro has collected data on the number of youths under 13 that have played golf during the last 4 months.Using a three-month moving average,the forecast value for November in the following time series would be ____________.

Suppose that for a time-series model,you compute a Durbin-Watson statistic D = 0.625.Assume that n = 30 and α = 0.05.Then your decision is ______.

Introduction to Statistics

Charts and Graphs

Descriptive Statistics

Probability

Discrete Distributions

Continuous Distributions

Sampling and Sampling Distributions

Statistical Inference: Estimation for Single Populations

Statistical Inference: Hypothesis Testing for Single Populations

Statistical Inferences About Two Populations

A Nalysis of Variance and Design of Experiments

Simple Regression Analysis and Correlation

Multiple Regression Analysis

Building Multiple Regression Models

Analysis of Categorical Data

Nonparametric Statistics

Statistical Quality Control

Decision Analysis

Filters