Exam 14: Simulation

The drying rate in an industrial process is dependent on many factors and varies according to the following distribution. Relative Minutes Frequency 3 0.22 4 0.36 5 0.28 6 0.10 7 0.04 Compute the mean drying time.

The Monte Carlo process is analogous to and derives its name from ________.

Simulation does not usually provide recommended decisions. Instead it provides

A bakery is considering hiring another clerk to better serve customers. To help with this decision, records were kept to determine how many customers arrived in 10-minute intervals. Based on 100 10-minute intervals, the following probability distribution and random number assignments developed. Number of Arrivals Probability Random numbers 6 .1 .01-.10 7 .3 .11-.40 8 .3 .41-.70 9 .2 .71-.90 10 .1 .91-.00 -Suppose the next three random numbers were .11, .42 and .84. Use these values to simulate arrivals into the bakery and determine the average number of arrivals per 10-minute period based on these occurrences. The average number of arrivals per 10-minute period is:

Random numbers of a mathematical process instead of a physical process are ________ numbers.

The number of cars arriving at Joe Kelly's oil change and tune-up place during the last 200 hours of operation is observed to be the following: Number of Cars Arriving Frequency 3 or less 0 4 10 10 30 6 70 7 50 8 40 9 or more 0 Determine the probability distribution of car arrivals.

The Monte Carlo process is analogous to gambling devices.

Sometimes manual simulation of several trials is ________ way to validate a simulation.

________ is a technique for selecting numbers randomly from a probability distribution.

In the Monte Carlo process, values for a random variable are generated by sampling from a(n) ________.

Applications of simulation models reflecting continuous distributions are more common than those of models employing discrete distributions.

An answering service for a doctor's office wants to evaluate the service by simulation calls. They used past data to determine the distributions for the time between calls and the time spent on the phone with patients. Use the table below to manually simulate 8 calls. The time of the call and the service time have already been determined. Customer Number Time of Call Time call answered Service Time Time call ends Customer Wait Time Operator Wait Time 1 15 15 25 40 0 15 2 45 45 25 70 0 5 3 70 15 4 95 45 5 125 15 155 6 150 35 7 175 190 25 15 0 8 205 25 240 10 0 Calculate the average waiting time per customer. Calculate the utilization of the operator.

Two hundred simulation runs were completed using the probability of a machine breakdown from the table below. The average number of breakdowns from the simulation trials was 1.93 with a standard deviation of 0.20. No. of breakdowns per week Probability Cumulative probability 0 .10 .10 1 .25 .35 2 .36 .71 3 .22 .93 4 .07 1.00 -Construct a 95% confidence interval for the average number of machine breakdowns.

A table of random numbers must be ________ distributed, efficiently generated, and absent of patterns.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates that the yearly yield of limes per acre is distributed as follows: Yield, bushels per acre Probability 350 .10 400 .18 450 .50 500 .22 The estimated average price per bushel is $16.80. -What is the expected yield of the crop?

A 95% confidence interval is (54.5, 57.5) based on a sample size of 25. What is the sample standard deviation?

In order to determine the value of discrete demand in a simulation model using Excel, the ________ function is used to associate a specific value of demand with a random number.

________ are the values that express the state of the system being modeled at the beginning of the Monte Carlo simulation.

In a continuous probability function, the area under the curve represents the probability of occurrence of the random variable.

Analogue simulation replaces a physical system with an analogous physical system that is ________ to manipulate.