Exam 14: Simulation

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Random numbers are typically generated on the computer using a numerical technique.

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The ________ command is used in generating the random numbers with Excel.

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Simulation results will always equal analytical results if 30 trials of the simulation have been conducted.

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A graduate research assistant "moonlights" at the short order counter in the student union snack bar in the evenings. He is considering asking for help taking orders, but needs to convince the management that they should hire another student. Because he is taking a simulation class, he thinks it may be the perfect way to convince management to hire more help if he can show that customers have to wait a long time. When a customer arrives, he takes their order and their payment, prepares the food, gives it to the customer, and then takes the order from the next person in line. If someone arrives while he's cooking an order, they have to wait until he's completed the current order. He is working on the simulation and a portion is shown below. -Complete the table below and determine the average customer wait time. Customer Number Time of Arrival Time Order Taken Order Prep Time Customer Receives Food Customer Wait Time 1 2 2 4 6 0 2 14 14 7 3 19 6 4 28 8 5 33 4

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________ is a risk analysis and forecasting program that uses Monte Carlo simulation.

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The drying rate in an industrial process is dependent on many factors and varies according to the following distribution. Relative Minutes Frequency 3 0.22 4 0.36 5 0.28 6 0.10 7 0.04 -Determine the drying time for these 5 random numbers: 0.13, 0.09, 0.19, 0.81, and 0.12.

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A bakery is considering hiring another clerk to better serve customers. To help with this decision, records were kept to determine how many customers arrived in 10-minute intervals. Based on 100 10-minute intervals, the following probability distribution and random number assignments developed. Number of Arrivals Probability Random numbers 6 .1 .01-.10 7 .3 .11-.40 8 .3 .41-.70 9 .2 .71-.90 10 .1 .91-.00 -Suppose the next three random numbers were .08, .50 and .69. How many customers would have arrived during this 30-minute period?

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It's often difficult to validate that the results of a simulation truly replicate reality.

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A graduate research assistant "moonlights" at the short order counter in the student union snack bar in the evenings. He is considering asking for help taking orders, but needs to convince the management that they should hire another student. Because he is taking a simulation class, he thinks it may be the perfect way to convince management to hire more help if he can show that customers have to wait a long time. When a customer arrives, he takes their order and their payment, prepares the food, gives it to the customer, and then takes the order from the next person in line. If someone arrives while he's cooking an order, they have to wait until he's completed the current order. He has simulated 5 orders. Customer Number Time of Arrival Time Order Taken Order Prep Time Customer Receives Food Customer Wait Time 1 2 2 4 6 0 2 14 14 7 3 19 6 4 28 8 5 33 4 -Average utilization is:

(Multiple Choice)
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The drying rate in an industrial process is dependent on many factors and varies according to the following distribution. Relative Minutes Frequency 13 0.22 14 0.36 15 0.28 16 0.10 17 0.04 What is the average drying time if you simulate 10 trials using these random numbers: 0.13, 0.09, 0.19, 0.81, 0.12, 0.53, 0.95, 0.97, 0.96, and 0.07.

(Short Answer)
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Integrating a function from zero to any value of a random variable x is an important step in determining the cumulative probability of that value of x.

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Simulations should always be started with an empty system.

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What is the 95% confidence interval width for a sample with a mean of 50 and a standard deviation of 14 based on 75 observations?

(Multiple Choice)
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When using Excel to simulate a system, it is necessary to compute only the probability (relative frequency) distribution.

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A table of random numbers must be normally distributed and efficiently generated.

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________ are numbers equally likely to be chosen from a large population of numbers.

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Developing the cumulative probability distribution helps to determine

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A random number table features numbers that are derived from a(n) ________ process.

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Assume that order prep time is based on the following distribution: Prep Time Probability 3 .10 4 .20 5 .25 6 .20 7 .15 8 .10 Complete the following table given that the random numbers for order prep time for customers 3, 4, and 5 are 62, 93, and 26, respectively. Arrival Number Time of Arrival Time Order Taken Order Prep Time Customer Receives Food Customer Wait Time Cook "Idle" Time 1 1 1 4 5 0 1 2 5 5 7 12 0 0 3 7 4 10 5 18 What is the average customer waiting time and the graduate student's utilization?

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Use the information and random numbers given in the table below to simulate the sale of newspapers for 10 days. Day Demand Random Number Quantity Ordered Sales Unsatisfied Demand Unsold Papers 1 .78 18 2 .43 3 .93 4 .87 5 .48 6 .84 7 .87 8 .27 9 .20 10 .52 After completing the simulation, determine his total revenue for the ten days as well as monetary losses that result from unmet demand and unsold papers.

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