Exam 13: Simulation Modeling

While it is powerful,simulation is not considered to be a flexible quantitative analysis tool.

Table 13-5 -According to Table 13-5,which presents a summary of the Monte Carlo output from a simulation of 200 runs,there are 5 possible values for the variable of concern.If this variable represents the number of machine breakdowns during a day,what is the probability that the number of breakdowns is more than 4?

The number of machine breakdowns in a day is 0,1,or 2,with probabilities 0.6,0.3,and 0.1,respectively.The following random numbers have been generated: 13,10,02,18,31,19,32,85,31,94.Use these numbers to generate the number of breakdowns for 10 consecutive days.What proportion of these days had at least one breakdown?

Simulation is very flexible.Thus,its solutions and inferences are usually transferable to other problems.

A certain grocery store has noted the following figures with regard to the number of people who arrive at its three checkout stands ready to check out,and the time it takes to check out the individuals. Create an appropriate table of interval of random numbers for both variables.

If,for a simple queuing or waiting line problem,we compare the solution from an analytical model with that from a simulation,we will typically find them to be exactly the same.

Describe the conditions when simulation is useful for inventory analysis.

Simulation that is used with queuing models are probabilistic and do not have Poisson arrivals nor exponential service times.

Table 13-4 A pawn shop in Arlington,Texas,has a drive-through window to better serve customers.The following tables provide information about the time between arrivals and the service times required at the window on a particularly busy day of the week.All times are in minutes. The first random number generated for arrivals is used to tell when the first customer arrives after opening. -According to Table 13-4,the time between successive arrivals is 1,2,3,or 4 minutes.If the store opens at 8:00 a.m. ,and random numbers are used to generate arrivals,what time would the first customer arrive if the first random number were 02?

There are three categories of simulation models: Monte Carlo,operational gaming,and systems simulation.

Table 13-2 A new young mother has opened a cloth diaper service.She is interested in simulating the number of diapers required for a one-year-old.She hopes to use this data to show the cost effectiveness of cloth diapers.The table below shows the number of diapers demanded daily and the probabilities associated with each level of demand. -According to Table 13-2,what is the cumulative probability that demand is less than or equal to 7?

In assigning random numbers in a Monte Carlo simulation,

Which of the following is not an advantage of simulation?

Simulation models can be broken down into which of the following three categories?

List the major advantages of simulation techniques.

Despite the power of simulation,less than 20% of the largest U.S.corporations use simulation in corporate planning.

Table 13-1 The table below represents the probability distribution for machine breakdowns in a day of operation. -According to Table 13-1,what is the probability of at least one breakdown?

If we are using a Monte Carlo simulation model,we should expect the model to produce the same results for each set of random numbers used.

Explain what is meant by a Monte Carlo simulation.