Exam 16: Time-Series Forecasting

The method of moving averages is used

TABLE 16-10 -Referring to Table 16-10,the residuals for the second-order autoregressive model are ________,________,________,and ________.

TABLE 16-4 The number of cases of merlot wine sold by a Paso Robles winery in an 8-year period follows. -Referring to Table 16-4,a centered 5-year moving average is to be constructed for the wine sales.The number of moving averages that will be calculated is ________.

TABLE 16-13 Given below is the monthly time-series data for U.S.retail sales of building materials over a specific year. The results of the linear trend,quadratic trend,exponential trend,first-order autoregressive,second-order autoregressive and third-order autoregressive model are presented below in which the coded month for the first month is 0: -Referring to Table 16-13,what is the exponentially smoothed value for the first month using a smoothing coefficient of W = 0.25?

TABLE 16-11 The manager of a health club has recorded mean attendance in newly introduced step classes over the last 15 months: 32.1,39.5,40.3,46.0,65.2,73.1,83.7,106.8,118.0,133.1,163.3,182.8,205.6,249.1,and 263.5.She then used Microsoft Excel to obtain the following partial output for both a first- and second-order autoregressive model. SUMMARY OUTPUT - 2ⁿᵈ Order Model Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.993 R Square 0.987 Adjusted R Square 0.985 Standard Error 9.276 Observations 15 Coefficients Intercept 5.86 X Variable 1 0.37 X Variable 2 0.85 -Referring to Table 16-11,using the first-order model,the forecast of mean attendance for month 16 is ________.

Given a data set with 15 yearly observations,a 3-year moving average will have fewer observations than a 5-year moving average.

TABLE 16-12 A local store developed a multiplicative time-series model to forecast its revenues in future quarters,using quarterly data on its revenues during the 4-year period from 2005 to 2009.The following is the resulting regression equation: log₁₀ = 6.102 + 0.012 X - 0.129 Q₁ - 0.054 Q₂ + 0.098 Q₃ where is the estimated number of contracts in a quarter. X is the coded quarterly value with X = 0 in the first quarter of 2005. Q₁ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the first quarter of a year and 0 otherwise. Q₂ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the second quarter of a year and 0 otherwise. Q₃ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the third quarter of a year and 0 otherwise. -Referring to Table 16-12,to obtain a fitted value for the fourth quarter of 2006 using the model,which of the following sets of values should be used in the regression equation?

TABLE 16-6 The president of a chain of department stores believes that her stores' total sales have been showing a linear trend since 1990.She uses Microsoft Excel to obtain the partial output below.The dependent variable is sales (in millions of dollars),while the independent variable is coded years,where 1990 is coded as 0,1991 is coded as 1,etc. -Referring to Table 16-6,the fitted trend value (in millions of dollars)for 1995 is ________.