Exam 15: Risk and Information

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A risk-neutral decision maker will always choose the alternative with the lowest variance among alternatives with identical expected utilities.

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An insurance company that sells fairly-priced insurance policies to a large number of individuals with similar realized accident risk probabilities should expect to:

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Suppose a decision maker has a utility function U=IU = \sqrt { I } and is faced with a lottery where there is a 30% chance of earning $30 and a 70% chance of earning $80. What is the expected utility of this lottery?

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Heading: Analyzing Risky Decisions **Reference: Use the decision tree along with the given probabilities to answer the next six questions Probability Event A = 30% Probability Event B = 70% Probability Event 1 = 58% Probability Event 2 = 42% Probability of Event A given that Event 1 occurs = 16% Probability of Event B given that Event 1 occurs = 84% Probability of Event A given that Event 2 occurs = 50% Probability of Event B given that Event 2 occurs = 50% Heading: Analyzing Risky Decisions **Reference: Use the decision tree along with the given probabilities to answer the next six questions  Probability Event A = 30% Probability Event B = 70% Probability Event 1 = 58% Probability Event 2 = 42% Probability of Event A given that Event 1 occurs = 16% Probability of Event B given that Event 1 occurs = 84% Probability of Event A given that Event 2 occurs = 50% Probability of Event B given that Event 2 occurs = 50%    -A decision tree is: -A decision tree is:

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The expected utility of a lottery is the expected value of the utility levels that the decision maker receives from the payoffs in the lottery.

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Which of the following statements is correct for a decision maker facing a choice between a sure thing and a lottery when the sure thing has the expected payoff of the lottery?

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The sum of the probabilities of all possible outcomes must equal exactly one.

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A risk-loving decision maker will choose the alternative with the highest variance among alternatives with identical expected utilities.

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Consider four lotteries, A, B, C, and D, all with an expected value of $100. The associated standard deviations of the lotteries are: A is 10, B is 15, C is 5, and D is 20. Which lottery is the riskiest?

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A risk premium, RP, can be computed with the following formula, where I1 and I2 are the two payoffs to a lottery, with probabilities p and (1-p), respectively:

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Lotteries A and B have the same expected value, but B has larger variance. Which of the following statements is true, all else equal?

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