Question 1

Probabilities based on brief or short "runs" are similar to research results based on

Accepted Answer

A)  small samples. 
B)  biased samples. 
C)  nonrepresentative samples. 
D)  All of the above 
A)  small samples. 
B)  biased samples. 
C)  nonrepresentative samples. 
D)  All of the above D

Question 2

Robert is going to "33 Flavors" (with Rhonda) to get a triple-scoop of ice cream. What is the probability that Robert will order Jamocha Almond Fudge, Rocky Road, and Gold Medal Ribbon?

Accepted Answer

A)  12114 
B)  1/ 33 + 1 / 33 + 1 / 33 
C)  1 / 33 X 1 / 33 X 1 / 33 
D)  It is impossible to tell, without knowing how popular those flavors are 
A)  12114 
B)  1/ 33 + 1 / 33 + 1 / 33 
C)  1 / 33 X 1 / 33 X 1 / 33 
D)  It is impossible to tell, without knowing how popular those flavors are C

Question 3

Basketball players tend to shoot in streaks so that a player who has just made a basket is more likely to make a basket on her second throw than if she had just missed the basket.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False  False

Question 4

Suppose that your friend plans to become a professional drummer and only 2% of all people who want to become professional drummers actually achieve this goal. In addition, suppose that he has "connections," and 80% of all successful drummers have connections like his. Only 10% of unsuccessful drummers have the same sort of connections. This means that his probability of success would increase slightly above 2%.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 5

Anyone can figure out the number or percentage of trials on which a particular outcome will occur, because of

Accepted Answer

A)  the rules of logic. 
B)  the use of circle diagrams. 
C)  the laws of chance. 
D)  psychic abilities. 
A)  the rules of logic. 
B)  the use of circle diagrams. 
C)  the laws of chance. 
D)  psychic abilities.

Question 6

When taking a 5-alternative multiple choice test, you are as likely to get all of the questions correct just by guessing as you are to get all of the questions wrong just by guessing.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 7

Personal estimates of the probability of uncertain events are called __________; mathematically determined statements about the likelihood of events with known frequencies are called __________.

Accepted Answer

A)  mutual outcomes…..joint outcomes 
B)  conditional outcomes…..joint outcomes 
C)  subjective probabilities…..objective probabilities 
D)  objective probabilities…..subjective probabilities 
E)  None of the above 
A)  mutual outcomes…..joint outcomes 
B)  conditional outcomes…..joint outcomes 
C)  subjective probabilities…..objective probabilities 
D)  objective probabilities…..subjective probabilities 
E)  None of the above

Question 8

Probabilities near a value of __________ represent maximum uncertainty.

Accepted Answer

A)  1 
B)  25% or 75% 
C)  0.5 
D)  0 (zero) 
A)  1 
B)  25% or 75% 
C)  0.5 
D)  0 (zero)

Question 9

The probability of two independent events occurring together is called a __________ probability, while the probability of an event occurring given that another event has occurred is called a __________ probability.

Accepted Answer

A)  joint…..conditional 
B)  conditional…..joint 
C)  multiple outcome…..single outcome 
D)  single outcome…..multiple outcome 
E)  None of the above 
A)  joint…..conditional 
B)  conditional…..joint 
C)  multiple outcome…..single outcome 
D)  single outcome…..multiple outcome 
E)  None of the above

Question 10

The number of ways a particular outcome can occur divided by the total number of possible outcomes is called

Accepted Answer

A)  that event's total rate. 
B)  that event's probability. 
C)  that event's occurrence. 
D)  that event's uncertainty. 
A)  that event's total rate. 
B)  that event's probability. 
C)  that event's occurrence. 
D)  that event's uncertainty.

Question 11

The "or rule" can only be used when

Accepted Answer

A)  possible outcomes are mutually exclusive. 
B)  there are more than three possible outcomes. 
C)  possible outcomes are dependent. 
D)  conditional probabilities are being considered. 
E)  All of the above 
A)  possible outcomes are mutually exclusive. 
B)  there are more than three possible outcomes. 
C)  possible outcomes are dependent. 
D)  conditional probabilities are being considered. 
E)  All of the above

Question 12

Discuss the nature of the laws of chance and the long run.

Accepted Answer

The laws of chance refer to the principl

Question 13

The probability of an event occurring over many trials is called its __________.

Accepted Answer

A)  total rate. 
B)  conditional probability. 
C)  cumulative probability. 
D)  uncertainty. 
A)  total rate. 
B)  conditional probability. 
C)  cumulative probability. 
D)  uncertainty.

Question 14

The probability of two independent events occurring together is __________ __________ __________ the probability of one of those events occurring alone.

Accepted Answer

A)  more likely than 
B)  less likely than 
C)  equally likely as 
D)  completely unrelated to 
E)  None of the above 
A)  more likely than 
B)  less likely than 
C)  equally likely as 
D)  completely unrelated to 
E)  None of the above

Question 15

Most people assess the risk of elective surgery (e.g., a "nose job") as being safer than nonelective surgery.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 16

Clever gamblers are able to use the "laws of chance" to select winning lottery numbers.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 17

A risk that is __________ is often perceived to be less risky or less hazardous than other risks.

Accepted Answer

A)  natural 
B)  involuntary 
C)  unobservable 
D)  All of the above 
E)  None of the above 
A)  natural 
B)  involuntary 
C)  unobservable 
D)  All of the above 
E)  None of the above

Question 18

What is the probability of getting a 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6 on one roll of a single die?

Accepted Answer

A)  0.3 
B)  0.5 
C)  0.75 
D)  1 
A)  0.3 
B)  0.5 
C)  0.75 
D)  1

Question 19

The belief that chance processes are self-correcting is called

Accepted Answer

A)  the gambler's fallacy. 
B)  probability ignorance. 
C)  overconfidence. 
D)  conjunction error. 
A)  the gambler's fallacy. 
B)  probability ignorance. 
C)  overconfidence. 
D)  conjunction error.

Question 20

The mistaken belief that the co-occurrence of two or more events is more likely than the occurrence of one of the events alone is called a/an

Accepted Answer

A)  heuristic error. 
B)  conjunctive error. 
C)  illusory correlation. 
D)  gambler's fallacy. 
E)  None of the above 
A)  heuristic error. 
B)  conjunctive error. 
C)  illusory correlation. 
D)  gambler's fallacy. 
E)  None of the above

Probabilities based on brief or short "runs" are similar to research results based on

Robert is going to "33 Flavors" (with Rhonda) to get a triple-scoop of ice cream. What is the probability that Robert will order Jamocha Almond Fudge, Rocky Road, and Gold Medal Ribbon?

Basketball players tend to shoot in streaks so that a player who has just made a basket is more likely to make a basket on her second throw than if she had just missed the basket.

Anyone can figure out the number or percentage of trials on which a particular outcome will occur, because of

When taking a 5-alternative multiple choice test, you are as likely to get all of the questions correct just by guessing as you are to get all of the questions wrong just by guessing.

Personal estimates of the probability of uncertain events are called ; mathematically determined statements about the likelihood of events with known frequencies are called .

Probabilities near a value of __________ represent maximum uncertainty.

The probability of two independent events occurring together is called a probability, while the probability of an event occurring given that another event has occurred is called a probability.

The number of ways a particular outcome can occur divided by the total number of possible outcomes is called

The "or rule" can only be used when

Discuss the nature of the laws of chance and the long run.

The probability of an event occurring over many trials is called its __________.

The probability of two independent events occurring together is __ the probability of one of those events occurring alone.

Most people assess the risk of elective surgery (e.g., a "nose job") as being safer than nonelective surgery.

Clever gamblers are able to use the "laws of chance" to select winning lottery numbers.

A risk that is __________ is often perceived to be less risky or less hazardous than other risks.

What is the probability of getting a 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6 on one roll of a single die?

The belief that chance processes are self-correcting is called

The mistaken belief that the co-occurrence of two or more events is more likely than the occurrence of one of the events alone is called a/an

Thinking: An Introduction

Thinking Starts Here: Memory As the Mediator of Cognitive Processes

The Relationship Between Thought and Language

Reasoning: Drawing Deductively Valid Conclusions

Analyzing Arguments

Thinking As Hypothesis Testing

Decision Making: It Is a Matter of Choice

Development of Problem Solving Skills

Creative Thinking

Filters

Exam 7: Likelihood and Uncertainty: Understanding Probabilities

Probabilities based on brief or short "runs" are similar to research results based on

Robert is going to "33 Flavors" (with Rhonda) to get a triple-scoop of ice cream. What is the probability that Robert will order Jamocha Almond Fudge, Rocky Road, and Gold Medal Ribbon?

Basketball players tend to shoot in streaks so that a player who has just made a basket is more likely to make a basket on her second throw than if she had just missed the basket.

Anyone can figure out the number or percentage of trials on which a particular outcome will occur, because of

When taking a 5-alternative multiple choice test, you are as likely to get all of the questions correct just by guessing as you are to get all of the questions wrong just by guessing.

Personal estimates of the probability of uncertain events are called __________; mathematically determined statements about the likelihood of events with known frequencies are called __________.

Probabilities near a value of __________ represent maximum uncertainty.

The probability of two independent events occurring together is called a __________ probability, while the probability of an event occurring given that another event has occurred is called a __________ probability.

The number of ways a particular outcome can occur divided by the total number of possible outcomes is called

The "or rule" can only be used when

Discuss the nature of the laws of chance and the long run.

The probability of an event occurring over many trials is called its __________.

The probability of two independent events occurring together is __________ __________ __________ the probability of one of those events occurring alone.

Most people assess the risk of elective surgery (e.g., a "nose job") as being safer than nonelective surgery.

Clever gamblers are able to use the "laws of chance" to select winning lottery numbers.

A risk that is __________ is often perceived to be less risky or less hazardous than other risks.

What is the probability of getting a 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6 on one roll of a single die?

The belief that chance processes are self-correcting is called

The mistaken belief that the co-occurrence of two or more events is more likely than the occurrence of one of the events alone is called a/an

Thinking: An Introduction

Thinking Starts Here: Memory As the Mediator of Cognitive Processes

The Relationship Between Thought and Language

Reasoning: Drawing Deductively Valid Conclusions

Analyzing Arguments

Thinking As Hypothesis Testing

Decision Making: It Is a Matter of Choice

Development of Problem Solving Skills

Creative Thinking

Filters

Personal estimates of the probability of uncertain events are called ; mathematically determined statements about the likelihood of events with known frequencies are called .

The probability of two independent events occurring together is called a probability, while the probability of an event occurring given that another event has occurred is called a probability.

The probability of two independent events occurring together is __ the probability of one of those events occurring alone.