Exam 12: Macroanalysis and Microvaluation of the Stock Market

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One of the economic series included in the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)coincident indicator is the index of industrial production.

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Exhibit 12.7 Use the Information Below for the Following Problem(S) You are using the free cash flow to equity (FCFE) technique to analyze U.S. equity market. The beginning FCFE is $90 and the required rate of return is 10%. Free cash flows are expected to grow at a 10% rate for the next two years and then grow at a constant rate of 7% forever. -Refer to Exhibit 12.7.What is the estimated value of the U.S.market today using the FCFE approach?

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It is important to analyze the economies and security markets before analyzing alternative industries or companies.

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Excess liquidity is defined as

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Dividend growth is positively related to the return on equity.

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Exhibit 12.9 Use the Information Below for the Following Problem(S) The aggregate market currently has a retention ratio of 60 percent, a required rate of return of 12 percent, and an expected growth rate for dividends of 4 percent. -Refer to Exhibit 12.9.If the payout ratio changes to 50 percent,but there are no other changes,what will be the new P/E?

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Exhibit 12.4 Use the Information Below for the Following Problem(S) Assume that the dividend payout ratio will be 45 percent when the rate on long term government bonds falls to 9 percent. Since investors are becoming more risk averse, the equity risk premium will rise to 7 percent and investors will require a 16 percent return. The return on equity will be 14 percent. -Refer to Exhibit 12.4.To what price will the market rise if the earnings expectation is $10.00?

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Exhibit 12.6 Use the Information Below for the Following Problem(S) Consider the following information that you propose to use to obtain an estimate of year 2004 EPS for the MacLog Company. GDP GDP growth Sales per share Operating profit margin Depreciation/Fixed Assets Fixed asset turnover Interest rate Total asset turnover Debt/Total assets Tax rate \ Year 2003 11,000 Billion \ 800 \ \ Estimated Year 2004 3.5\% 12\% 14\% 2 3.5\% 0.7 45\% 36\% \ In addition a regression analysis indicates the following relationship between growth in sales per share for MacLog and GDP growth is %D Sales per share = 0.015 + 0.75(%∆GDP) -Refer to Exhibit 12.6.Calculate the firm's EPS for the year 2004.

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Building permits for new private housing units are listed as a leading indicator by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER).

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Exhibit 12.6 Use the Information Below for the Following Problem(S) Consider the following information that you propose to use to obtain an estimate of year 2004 EPS for the MacLog Company. GDP GDP growth Sales per share Operating profit margin Depreciation/Fixed Assets Fixed asset turnover Interest rate Total asset turnover Debt/Total assets Tax rate \ Year 2003 11,000 Billion \ 800 \ \ Estimated Year 2004 3.5\% 12\% 14\% 2 3.5\% 0.7 45\% 36\% \ In addition a regression analysis indicates the following relationship between growth in sales per share for MacLog and GDP growth is %D Sales per share = 0.015 + 0.75(%∆GDP) -Refer to Exhibit 12.6.Calculate the per share interest rate charge for the year 2004.

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The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)has derived the following indicator series in order to monitor business cycles.

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If interest rates rise due to inflation,and expected cash flows to a firm rise,then you would expect stock prices to

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The multiplier approach for estimating the intrinsic market value of a major stock market series requires the following step(s):

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Which of the following is not a determinant of the aggregate gross profit margin?

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The dividend payout ratio for the aggregate market is 65 percent,the required rate of return is 12 percent,and the expected growth rate for dividends is 6 percent.Compute the current earnings multiple.

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Exhibit 12.1 Use the Information Below for the Following Problem(S) Assume that the dividend payout ratio will be 65 percent when the rate on long-term government bonds falls to 8 percent. Since investors are becoming more risk averse, the equity risk premium will rise to 7 percent and investors will require a 15 percent return. The return on equity will be 12 percent. -Refer to Exhibit 12.1.What is your expectation of the market P/E ratio?

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Which of the following economic series are included in the NBER leading indicator group?

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Exhibit 12.1 Use the Information Below for the Following Problem(S) Assume that the dividend payout ratio will be 65 percent when the rate on long-term government bonds falls to 8 percent. Since investors are becoming more risk averse, the equity risk premium will rise to 7 percent and investors will require a 15 percent return. The return on equity will be 12 percent. -Refer to Exhibit 12.1.To what price will the market rise if the earnings expectation is $22.00 per share?

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Which of the following is not normally associated with cyclical indicators?

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Which of the following is not a major variable that affects the aggregate stock market earning multiplier in a country?

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