Exam 12: Forecasting With Time Series Data

When a time series exhibits seasonal variations, the Holt exponential smoothing method, or double exponential smoothing method, is appropriate to capture the upward and downward movement of the time series.

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Question 1

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Martin owns a foot truck that for the past five years has frequented local festivals selling fried cheese curds. He has experienced a variation in sales for no known reason and wants to develop a forecast using the exponential smoothing method. After loading data from the previous 20 days, the following summary table was calculated. What is the MSE?

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Question 2

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When constructing a quick review table in Excel, knowing the formula is essential in populating the cells correctly. Using the Holts exponential smoothing method, complete the following table for Year 4 where $\alpha$ = 0.1 and $\beta$ = 0.2. $When constructing a quick review table in Excel, knowing the formula is essential in populating the cells correctly. Using the Holts exponential smoothing method, complete the following table for Year 4 where \alpha = 0.1 and \beta = 0.2.$

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Question 3

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Using the following table of results, what is the estimated quadratic trend model for the sample?

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Question 4

Complete the simple exponentially smoothed series on the following table where ? = 0.20 and L₁ = y₁.

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Question 5

Consider the following exponential trend model and make a forecast for t = 20 and $\hat{y}$ = exp (2.4 + 0.08t + $\frac{0.01^2}{2}$ ).

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Question 6

Aimee's bookstore had a 45% increase in profits on Wednesday, June 12^th, over the previous year's sales. Without the presence of a holiday, events in the area, or sale promotion, this business event is considered random.

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Question 7

When performing a cross-validation of regression model with R, in the forecast package, we use the _____ function to find the number of observations in the validation set.

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Question 8

Martin owns a foot truck that for the past five years has frequented local festivals selling fried cheese curds. He has experienced a variation in sales for no known reason and wants to develop a forecast using the exponential smoothing method. After loading data from the previous 20 days, the following summary table was calculated. What is the MSE?

(Multiple Choice)

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(43)

Question 9

By combining the validation and the training set, the sample is larger for estimation and includes the most recent validation set for predictions.

(True/False)

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Question 10

The triple exponential smoothing method uses seasonality variations in the analysis of the data.

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Question 11

Using the following table of results, what is the estimated linear trend model for the sample?

(Multiple Choice)

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Question 12

Mark is using a 3-period moving average to forecast the number of filters needed for the fourth quarter. Using the following data, what is the forecasted amount?

(Multiple Choice)

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Question 13

Mary is determining the maximum quantity given the seasonality is constant. If the coefficients are 112t and -23.4502t² in a quadratic model, what is the maximum quantity that can be reached?

(Multiple Choice)

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Question 14

Which method would be the best fit for a sample containing seasonality, but no trend, and is further divided into structures depending on the type of seasonality exhibited by the series?

(Multiple Choice)

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Question 15

Using the following table of results, what is the estimated quadratic trend model for the sample?

(Multiple Choice)

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Question 16

Consider the following exponential trend model and make a forecast for t = 21 and y^=exp 2.12+0.08t+ 0.0122 .

(Multiple Choice)

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Question 17

Martin is handed quarterly sales data from a small subsidiary. Prior to creating a strategy, he wants to forecast the Q4 results to have an idea of the full year potential sales. What is the most popular technique Martin can use to compute the Q4 sales estimate?

(Multiple Choice)

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Question 18

Martin owns a foot truck that for the past five years has frequented local festivals selling fried cheese curds. He has experienced a variation in sales for no known reason and wants to develop a forecast using the exponential smoothing method. After loading data from the previous 20 days, the following summary table was calculated. What is the MAD?

(Multiple Choice)

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Question 19

Of the smoothing methods, which one does the level L_t, as well as the trend T_t, adapt over time and is a best fit when the time series expresses no seasonality?

(Multiple Choice)

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Question 20

Showing 1 - 20 of 53

When a time series exhibits seasonal variations, the Holt exponential smoothing method, or double exponential smoothing method, is appropriate to capture the upward and downward movement of the time series.

Using the following table of results, what is the estimated quadratic trend model for the sample?

Complete the simple exponentially smoothed series on the following table where ? = 0.20 and L₁ = y₁.

Consider the following exponential trend model and make a forecast for t = 20 and $\hat{y}$ = exp (2.4 + 0.08t + $\frac{0.01^2}{2}$ ).

Aimee's bookstore had a 45% increase in profits on Wednesday, June 12^th, over the previous year's sales. Without the presence of a holiday, events in the area, or sale promotion, this business event is considered random.

When performing a cross-validation of regression model with R, in the forecast package, we use the _____ function to find the number of observations in the validation set.

By combining the validation and the training set, the sample is larger for estimation and includes the most recent validation set for predictions.

The triple exponential smoothing method uses seasonality variations in the analysis of the data.

Using the following table of results, what is the estimated linear trend model for the sample?

Mark is using a 3-period moving average to forecast the number of filters needed for the fourth quarter. Using the following data, what is the forecasted amount?

Mary is determining the maximum quantity given the seasonality is constant. If the coefficients are 112t and -23.4502t² in a quadratic model, what is the maximum quantity that can be reached?

Which method would be the best fit for a sample containing seasonality, but no trend, and is further divided into structures depending on the type of seasonality exhibited by the series?

Using the following table of results, what is the estimated quadratic trend model for the sample?

Consider the following exponential trend model and make a forecast for t = 21 and y^=exp 2.12+0.08t+ 0.0122 .

Martin is handed quarterly sales data from a small subsidiary. Prior to creating a strategy, he wants to forecast the Q4 results to have an idea of the full year potential sales. What is the most popular technique Martin can use to compute the Q4 sales estimate?

Of the smoothing methods, which one does the level L_t, as well as the trend T_t, adapt over time and is a best fit when the time series expresses no seasonality?

Introduction to Business Analytics

Data Management and Wrangling

Data Visualization and Summary Measures

Probability and Probability Distributions

Statistical Inference

Regression Analysis

Advanced Regression Analysis

Introduction to Data Mining

Supervised Data Mining: K-Nearest Neighbors and Naãve Bayes

Supervised Data Mining: Decision Trees

Unsupervised Data Mining

Introduction to Prescriptive Analytics

Filters

Exam 12: Forecasting With Time Series Data

When a time series exhibits seasonal variations, the Holt exponential smoothing method, or double exponential smoothing method, is appropriate to capture the upward and downward movement of the time series.

When constructing a quick review table in Excel, knowing the formula is essential in populating the cells correctly. Using the Holts exponential smoothing method, complete the following table for Year 4 where α\alphaα = 0.1 and β\betaβ = 0.2.

Using the following table of results, what is the estimated quadratic trend model for the sample?

Complete the simple exponentially smoothed series on the following table where ? = 0.20 and L1 = y1.

Consider the following exponential trend model and make a forecast for t = 20 and y^\hat{y}y^​ = exp (2.4 + 0.08t + 0.0122\frac{0.01^2}{2}20.012​ ).

Aimee's bookstore had a 45% increase in profits on Wednesday, June 12th, over the previous year's sales. Without the presence of a holiday, events in the area, or sale promotion, this business event is considered random.

When performing a cross-validation of regression model with R, in the forecast package, we use the _____ function to find the number of observations in the validation set.

By combining the validation and the training set, the sample is larger for estimation and includes the most recent validation set for predictions.

The triple exponential smoothing method uses seasonality variations in the analysis of the data.

Using the following table of results, what is the estimated linear trend model for the sample?

Mark is using a 3-period moving average to forecast the number of filters needed for the fourth quarter. Using the following data, what is the forecasted amount?

Mary is determining the maximum quantity given the seasonality is constant. If the coefficients are 112t and -23.4502t2 in a quadratic model, what is the maximum quantity that can be reached?

Which method would be the best fit for a sample containing seasonality, but no trend, and is further divided into structures depending on the type of seasonality exhibited by the series?

Using the following table of results, what is the estimated quadratic trend model for the sample?

Consider the following exponential trend model and make a forecast for t = 21 and y^=exp 2.12+0.08t+ 0.0122 .

Martin is handed quarterly sales data from a small subsidiary. Prior to creating a strategy, he wants to forecast the Q4 results to have an idea of the full year potential sales. What is the most popular technique Martin can use to compute the Q4 sales estimate?

Of the smoothing methods, which one does the level Lt, as well as the trend Tt, adapt over time and is a best fit when the time series expresses no seasonality?

Introduction to Business Analytics

Data Management and Wrangling

Data Visualization and Summary Measures

Probability and Probability Distributions

Statistical Inference

Regression Analysis

Advanced Regression Analysis

Introduction to Data Mining

Supervised Data Mining: K-Nearest Neighbors and Naãve Bayes

Supervised Data Mining: Decision Trees

Unsupervised Data Mining

Introduction to Prescriptive Analytics

Filters

Complete the simple exponentially smoothed series on the following table where ? = 0.20 and L₁ = y₁.

Consider the following exponential trend model and make a forecast for t = 20 and $\hat{y}$ = exp (2.4 + 0.08t + $\frac{0.01^2}{2}$ ).

Aimee's bookstore had a 45% increase in profits on Wednesday, June 12^th, over the previous year's sales. Without the presence of a holiday, events in the area, or sale promotion, this business event is considered random.

Mary is determining the maximum quantity given the seasonality is constant. If the coefficients are 112t and -23.4502t² in a quadratic model, what is the maximum quantity that can be reached?

Of the smoothing methods, which one does the level L_t, as well as the trend T_t, adapt over time and is a best fit when the time series expresses no seasonality?