Exam 12: Forecasting With Time Series Data

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Based on the following plotted series of linear and exponential trends with an overlay of observation points, which model is the best fit for the observed data?

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The following model yt = β\beta 0 + β\beta 1t + β\beta 2t2 + β\beta 3t3 + ε\varepsilon t allows for what changes in a series?

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In a 3-period moving average, when a new observation becomes available, the highest numerical observation is dropped.

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Using the following table, estimate quadratic trend model with seasonal dummy variables. Using the following table, estimate quadratic trend model with seasonal dummy variables.

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Using the following results, estimate linear trend model with seasonal dummy variables. Using the following results, estimate linear trend model with seasonal dummy variables.

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Sydney is evaluating monthly sales for her Etsy account. Based on the given data y1 = 4,370; y2 = 3,769; y3 = 4,119, what is her 3-period moving average?

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Sydney is evaluating monthly sales for her Etsy account. Based on the given data y1= 4,321; y2= 3876; y3= 4,190, what is her 3-period moving average?

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When constructing a quick review table in Excel, knowing the formula is essential in populating the cells correctly. Using the Holt exponential smoothing method, complete the following table for Year 3 where α\alpha = 0.1 and β\beta = 0.2.  When constructing a quick review table in Excel, knowing the formula is essential in populating the cells correctly. Using the Holt exponential smoothing method, complete the following table for Year 3 where  \alpha  = 0.1 and  \beta  = 0.2.

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When using R to perform the Holt-Winters exponential smoothing method, in forecast, we use ____ function with the model inputs of 'AAA' and 'AAM'.

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Complete the simple exponentially smoothed series on the following table where ? = 0.40 and L1 = y1. Complete the simple exponentially smoothed series on the following table where ? = 0.40 and L<sub>1</sub> = y<sub>1</sub>.

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Consider the following quadratic trend model and make a forecast for t = 20 and y^\hat{y} = 15.84 + 0.98t + 0.02t2.

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If a time series reverses direction, then a quadratic trend model will allow for the curvature to be graphed.

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When visually inspecting data to confirm the existence of a trend, a scatterplot of the data with a superimposed linear trend line is advisable to view the series over time.

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