Question 1

When a time series is expected to grow by fixed amounts each time period, then the linear trend model should be used.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 2

Using only the residual in the following table, calculate the overall MSE.

Accepted Answer

A)  3,121.50 
B)  2,954.25 
C)  58,053.75 
D)  219.83 
A)  3,121.50 
B)  2,954.25 
C)  58,053.75 
D)  219.83

Question 3

Martin owns a foot truck that for the past five years has frequented local festivals selling fried cheese curds. He has experienced a variation in sales for no known reason and wants to develop a forecast using the exponential smoothing method. After loading data from the previous 20 days, the following summary table was calculated. What is the MAD?

Accepted Answer

A)  10.65 
B)  4.09 
C)  11.21 
D)  2.739 
A)  10.65 
B)  4.09 
C)  11.21 
D)  2.739

Question 4

In the __________ model, to estimate, the response variable is measured in natural logs, ln (yt), and then a run regression of ln (yt) on t.

Accepted Answer

A)  linear 
B)  exponential 
C)  cubed 
D)  quadratic 
A)  linear 
B)  exponential 
C)  cubed 
D)  quadratic

Question 5

Based on the following results, which model is the best fit for the data?

Accepted Answer

A)  The adjusted R2 for the quadratic model is higher, thus best fit for the data. 
B)  The adjusted R2 for the linear model is lower, thus best fit for the data. 
C)  The R2 for the quadratic model is higher, thus best fit for the data. 
D)  The R2 for the linear model is lower, thus best fit for the data. 
A)  The adjusted R2 for the quadratic model is higher, thus best fit for the data. 
B)  The adjusted R2 for the linear model is lower, thus best fit for the data. 
C)  The R2 for the quadratic model is higher, thus best fit for the data. 
D)  The R2 for the linear model is lower, thus best fit for the data.

Question 6

Consider the following estimated linear trend model and make a forecast for t = 18 and y^ = 10.88 + 1.04t.

Accepted Answer

A)  0.68 
B)  1.65 
C)  28.88 
D)  29.60 
A)  0.68 
B)  1.65 
C)  28.88 
D)  29.60

Question 7

Using only the residual in the following table, calculate the overall MSE.

Accepted Answer

A)  2,946.50 
B)  2,909.75 
C)  11,112.75 
D)  210.83 
A)  2,946.50 
B)  2,909.75 
C)  11,112.75 
D)  210.83

Question 8

Using the following table of results, what is the estimated linear trend model for the sample?

Accepted Answer

A)  $\hat{y}$ = 0.91881 + 0.5364t 
B)  $\hat{y}$ = 11.8846 + 0.5364t 
C)  $\hat{y}$ = 0.8471 + 0.83556t 
D)  $\hat{y}$ = 0.83556 + 11.8846t 
A)  $\hat{y}$ = 0.91881 + 0.5364t 
B)  $\hat{y}$ = 11.8846 + 0.5364t 
C)  $\hat{y}$ = 0.8471 + 0.83556t 
D)  $\hat{y}$ = 0.83556 + 11.8846t

Question 9

Consider the following quadratic trend model and make a forecast for t = 22 and $\hat{y}$ = 11.21 + 1.18t + 0.02t2.

Accepted Answer

A)  38.05 
B)  46.85 
C)  36.29 
D)  61.60 
A)  38.05 
B)  46.85 
C)  36.29 
D)  61.60

Question 10

Consider the following table of the derivations for the MSE, MSA, and MAPE in the validation set. Based on the results, which model is preferred and why?

Accepted Answer

A)  Exponential, because the MSE, MAD, and MAPE are consistently lower. 
B)  Both Linear and Exponential are preferred models because the results are positive. 
C)  Linear, because the MSE, MAD, and MAPE are consistently higher. 
D)  Neither, because an adjusted R2 is needed for determination. 
A)  Exponential, because the MSE, MAD, and MAPE are consistently lower. 
B)  Both Linear and Exponential are preferred models because the results are positive. 
C)  Linear, because the MSE, MAD, and MAPE are consistently higher. 
D)  Neither, because an adjusted R2 is needed for determination.

Question 11

When constructing a quick review table in Excel, knowing the formula is essential in populating the cells correctly. Using the Holt exponential smoothing method, complete the following table for Year 3 where $\alpha$ = 0.1 and $\beta$ = 0.2.

Accepted Answer

A)  6,680 
B)  8,980 
C)  8,680 
D)  11,180 
A)  6,680 
B)  8,980 
C)  8,680 
D)  11,180

Question 12

Mary is determining the maximum quantity given the seasonality is constant. If the coefficients are 107t and -22.8190t2 in a quadratic model, what is the maximum quantity that can be reached?

Accepted Answer

A)  4.69 
B)  0.107 
C)  7.86 
D)  2.345 
A)  4.69 
B)  0.107 
C)  7.86 
D)  2.345

Question 13

Which one of the following is not a step in cross-validation with time series?

Accepted Answer

A)  Use both the training and validation set to re-estimate the preferred model. 
B)  Split data series into early and later periods, representing both training and validation set. 
C)  Determine the proper forecast model based on R2 results. 
D)  Explore suitable forecasting models to compute MSE, MAD, and MAPE. 
A)  Use both the training and validation set to re-estimate the preferred model. 
B)  Split data series into early and later periods, representing both training and validation set. 
C)  Determine the proper forecast model based on R2 results. 
D)  Explore suitable forecasting models to compute MSE, MAD, and MAPE.

Question 14

In reviewing stock growth in Amazon, the linear trend model would be best use for when an increase in the series happens over time.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 15

Mark is using a 3-period moving average to forecast the number of filters needed for the fourth quarter. Using the following data, what is the forecasted amount?

Accepted Answer

A)  36 Filters 
B)  37 Filters 
C)  38 Filters 
D)  40 Filters 
A)  36 Filters 
B)  37 Filters 
C)  38 Filters 
D)  40 Filters

Question 16

The use of quantitative forecast can be criticized because biases in optimism and overconfidence may skew the results.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 17

When constructing a quick review table in Excel, knowing the formula is essential in populating the cells correctly. Using the Holts exponential smoothing method, complete the following table for Year 4 where $\alpha$ = 0.1 and $\beta$ = 0.2.

Accepted Answer

A)  103,864 
B)  102,472 
C)  104,510.8 
D)  114,625.6 
A)  103,864 
B)  102,472 
C)  104,510.8 
D)  114,625.6

Question 18

Using the following results, estimate linear trend model with seasonal dummy variables.

Accepted Answer

A)  = 2.3036 + 0.0615d1 + 0.0667d2 + 0.0618d3 + 0.0128t 
B)  = 2.3036 - 0.0615d1 - 0.0667d2 - 0.0618d3 + 0.0128t 
C)  = 2.3036 + 0.0615d1 - 0.0667d2 - 0.0618d3 - 0.0128t 
D)  = 2.3036 - 0.0615d1 + 0.0667d2 + 0.0618d3 + 0.0128t 
A)  = 2.3036 + 0.0615d1 + 0.0667d2 + 0.0618d3 + 0.0128t 
B)  = 2.3036 - 0.0615d1 - 0.0667d2 - 0.0618d3 + 0.0128t 
C)  = 2.3036 + 0.0615d1 - 0.0667d2 - 0.0618d3 - 0.0128t 
D)  = 2.3036 - 0.0615d1 + 0.0667d2 + 0.0618d3 + 0.0128t

Question 19

Which option is not a description of polynomial trend models?

Accepted Answer

A)  Higher level polynomials run the risk of overfitting. 
B)  MSE, MAD, MAPE cannot be used to compare polynomial trend models. 
C)  Adjusted R2 is used to compare polynomial models. 
D)  The coefficient $\beta$2 determines the direction of the linear trend line. 
A)  Higher level polynomials run the risk of overfitting. 
B)  MSE, MAD, MAPE cannot be used to compare polynomial trend models. 
C)  Adjusted R2 is used to compare polynomial models. 
D)  The coefficient $\beta$2 determines the direction of the linear trend line.

Question 20

Consider the following estimated linear trend model and make a forecast for t = 18 and y^= 11.23 + 1.04t.

Accepted Answer

A)  0.68 
B)  1.67 
C)  29.23 
D)  29.95 
A)  0.68 
B)  1.67 
C)  29.23 
D)  29.95

When a time series is expected to grow by fixed amounts each time period, then the linear trend model should be used.

Using only the residual in the following table, calculate the overall MSE.

In the __________ model, to estimate, the response variable is measured in natural logs, ln (y_t), and then a run regression of ln (y_t) on t.

Based on the following results, which model is the best fit for the data?

Consider the following estimated linear trend model and make a forecast for t = 18 and y^ = 10.88 + 1.04t.

Using only the residual in the following table, calculate the overall MSE.

Using the following table of results, what is the estimated linear trend model for the sample?

Consider the following quadratic trend model and make a forecast for t = 22 and $\hat{y}$ = 11.21 + 1.18t + 0.02t².

Consider the following table of the derivations for the MSE, MSA, and MAPE in the validation set. Based on the results, which model is preferred and why?

Mary is determining the maximum quantity given the seasonality is constant. If the coefficients are 107t and -22.8190t² in a quadratic model, what is the maximum quantity that can be reached?

Which one of the following is not a step in cross-validation with time series?

In reviewing stock growth in Amazon, the linear trend model would be best use for when an increase in the series happens over time.

Mark is using a 3-period moving average to forecast the number of filters needed for the fourth quarter. Using the following data, what is the forecasted amount?

The use of quantitative forecast can be criticized because biases in optimism and overconfidence may skew the results.

Using the following results, estimate linear trend model with seasonal dummy variables.

Which option is not a description of polynomial trend models?

Consider the following estimated linear trend model and make a forecast for t = 18 and y^= 11.23 + 1.04t.

Introduction to Business Analytics

Data Management and Wrangling

Data Visualization and Summary Measures

Probability and Probability Distributions

Statistical Inference

Regression Analysis

Advanced Regression Analysis

Introduction to Data Mining

Supervised Data Mining: K-Nearest Neighbors and Naãve Bayes

Supervised Data Mining: Decision Trees

Unsupervised Data Mining

Introduction to Prescriptive Analytics

Filters

Exam 12: Forecasting With Time Series Data

When a time series is expected to grow by fixed amounts each time period, then the linear trend model should be used.

Using only the residual in the following table, calculate the overall MSE.

In the __________ model, to estimate, the response variable is measured in natural logs, ln (yt), and then a run regression of ln (yt) on t.

Based on the following results, which model is the best fit for the data?

Consider the following estimated linear trend model and make a forecast for t = 18 and y^ = 10.88 + 1.04t.

Using only the residual in the following table, calculate the overall MSE.

Using the following table of results, what is the estimated linear trend model for the sample?

Consider the following quadratic trend model and make a forecast for t = 22 and y^\hat{y}y^​ = 11.21 + 1.18t + 0.02t2.

Consider the following table of the derivations for the MSE, MSA, and MAPE in the validation set. Based on the results, which model is preferred and why?

When constructing a quick review table in Excel, knowing the formula is essential in populating the cells correctly. Using the Holt exponential smoothing method, complete the following table for Year 3 where α\alphaα = 0.1 and β\betaβ = 0.2.

Mary is determining the maximum quantity given the seasonality is constant. If the coefficients are 107t and -22.8190t2 in a quadratic model, what is the maximum quantity that can be reached?

Which one of the following is not a step in cross-validation with time series?

In reviewing stock growth in Amazon, the linear trend model would be best use for when an increase in the series happens over time.

Mark is using a 3-period moving average to forecast the number of filters needed for the fourth quarter. Using the following data, what is the forecasted amount?

The use of quantitative forecast can be criticized because biases in optimism and overconfidence may skew the results.

When constructing a quick review table in Excel, knowing the formula is essential in populating the cells correctly. Using the Holts exponential smoothing method, complete the following table for Year 4 where α\alphaα = 0.1 and β\betaβ = 0.2.

Using the following results, estimate linear trend model with seasonal dummy variables.

Which option is not a description of polynomial trend models?

Consider the following estimated linear trend model and make a forecast for t = 18 and y^= 11.23 + 1.04t.

Introduction to Business Analytics

Data Management and Wrangling

Data Visualization and Summary Measures

Probability and Probability Distributions

Statistical Inference

Regression Analysis

Advanced Regression Analysis

Introduction to Data Mining

Supervised Data Mining: K-Nearest Neighbors and Naãve Bayes

Supervised Data Mining: Decision Trees

Unsupervised Data Mining

Introduction to Prescriptive Analytics

Filters

In the __________ model, to estimate, the response variable is measured in natural logs, ln (y_t), and then a run regression of ln (y_t) on t.

Consider the following quadratic trend model and make a forecast for t = 22 and $\hat{y}$ = 11.21 + 1.18t + 0.02t².

Mary is determining the maximum quantity given the seasonality is constant. If the coefficients are 107t and -22.8190t² in a quadratic model, what is the maximum quantity that can be reached?