Exam 11: Time Series Forecasting

The following questions use the data below. The owner of Tim's Toys wants to predict monthly sales. He has collected data for 12 months. He needs your help in analyzing this data using weighted moving averages. -Refer to Exhibit 11.15. What formulas should go in cells C5:C16 of the spreadsheet if Bill uses a 2 month weighted moving average forecasting model?

Which of the following describes an additive seasonal effect in times series data?

The following questions use the data below. A store wants to predict quarterly sales. The owner has collected 3 years of sales data and wants your help in analyzing the data. He wants to use Winter's method to forecast sales. -Refer to Exhibit 11.21. The store wishes to use Solver to find the optimal values for cell E6. Provide the following Risk Solver Platform (RSP) settings. Objective Cell: Variables Cells: Constraints Cells:

The following questions use the data below. The owner of Tim's Toys wants to predict monthly sales. He has collected data for 12 months. He needs your help in analyzing this data using weighted moving averages. -Refer to Exhibit 11.15. What is the forecast for time period 13-15?

Dave Cummins runs a local bowling alley. In the face of increasing competition from other local establishments, Dave has decided he must upgrade his facilities to accommodate a younger crowd. He has examined various "cosmic bowling" upgrades for his facility and has finally decided on a package. Dave has approached a local bank for financing assistance. The bank is conservative in its lending practices. As a result the loan manager would like more insight into the potential earnings of the bowling alley, with and without the upgrades. You bowl in leagues in Dave's bowling alley. You enjoy the establishment and Dave is a friend. Thus, you have offered your services to help Dave provide a reasonable projection of establishment earnings based on bowling games. Dave has provided you the following information on lines of bowling over the past five years. Information from the cosmic bowling upgrade manufacturer suggests a 3-5% increase in bowling lines every year for the first 4 years after the installation of their product. Based on Dave's data develop an appropriate forecasting model. Provide Dave forecasts for the next year both with and without the cosmic bowling upgrade.

The following questions use the data below. A store wants to predict quarterly sales. The owner has collected 3 years of sales data and wants your help in analyzing the data using Holt's method. -Refer to Exhibit 11.20. What formulas should go in cells E3:G16 of the spreadsheet if Holt's method is used to forecast sales?

The following questions use the data below. The owner of Tim's Toys wants to predict monthly sales. He has collected data for 12 months. He needs your help in analyzing this data using moving averages. -Refer to Exhibit 11.13. What is the forecast for time periods 13-15?

The following questions use the data below. Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using a linear trend model. The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data. The relevant regression output is in the following table. -Refer to Exhibit 11.9. What is the Input X Range in the Regression command settings dialog box?

The following questions use the data below. Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using a seasonal regression model. The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data. The relevant regression output is provided in the following table. -Refer to Exhibit 11.12. What is the Input X Range in the Regression command settings dialog box?

The following questions use the data below. A store wants to predict quarterly sales. The owner has collected 3 years of sales data and wants your help in analyzing the data using the multiplicative seasonal effects model. -Refer to Exhibit 11.5. What formula should be entered in cell G13 to compute the forecast for time period 11?

The following questions use the data below. Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using a seasonal regression model. The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data. The relevant regression output is provided in the following table. -Refer to Exhibit 11.12. What formula should be entered in cell E3 to compute the value for the indicator variable for year 1 Quarter 1?

The following questions use the data below. A store wants to predict quarterly sales. The owner has collected 3 years of sales data and wants your help in analyzing the data using the double moving average model with k = 4. -Refer to Exhibit 11.6. What formula should be entered in cell E6 (and copied to E7:E14) to compute the first average when using the double moving average method with k = 4?

The following questions use the data below. Honest Al's Used Cars wants to predict how many cars are sold each month. He has collected data for 12 months. He needs your help in analyzing this data using weighted moving averages. -Refer to Exhibit 11.2. What formula should be entered in cell C6 to compute the 2-month weighted moving average forecast for month 3?

The following questions use the data below. A store wants to predict quarterly sales. The owner has collected 3 years of sales data and wants your help in analyzing the data. He wants to use regression and a linear trend model. -Refer to Exhibit 11.22. Based on the regression output, what formulas should go in cells E3:E14?

The following questions use the data below. A store wants to predict quarterly sales. The owner has collected 3 years of sales data and wants your help in analyzing the data using Holt's method. -Refer to Exhibit 11.20. The store wishes to use Solver to find the optimal values for cell E3. Provide the following Risk Solver Platform (RSP) settings. Objective Cell: Variables Cells: Constraints Cells:

The following questions use the data below. Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using a linear trend model. The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data. The relevant regression output is in the following table. -Refer to Exhibit 11.9. What is the Input Y Range in the Regression command settings dialog box?

Which of the following is true of 2-month moving average forecasting function extrapolation?

The correct formula for a k period moving average is

Seasonality in a time series is indicated by

How many indicator variables are required if there are p seasons in a time series and you are forecasting with a seasonal regression model?