Exam 11: Time Series Forecasting

Why might a forecaster calculate MSE values on just the most recent data in the time-series data set?

The following questions use the data below. Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using Winter's method. The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data. -Refer to Exhibit 11.8. What formula should be entered in cell E7 to compute the base level value for year 2 Quarter 1?

Management at Dempsi Industries is unsure about how to calculate demand for the next four weeks. They have collected demand data for the last year and have presented you with the data. They have asked you for a reasonable level of demand for the next four weeks. You have agreed to provide management a report describing your analysis. Conduct an analysis of the data provided. Based on the sample data and your initial analyses, evaluate the applicability of the forecasting techniques covered in the chapter. For each technique, provide a brief description of the technique and an assessment of the appropriateness of that technique to the sample data. Provide a table summarizing the forecast error evaluations for each technique examined. Recommend a technique to use to make the requisite predictions and provide a prediction of demand for the next four weeks based on this recommended model.

A time series which has no significant upward or downward trend is referred to as

The following questions use the data below. Honest Al's Used Cars wants to predict how many cars are sold each month. He has collected data for 12 months. He needs your help in analyzing this data using exponential smoothing. -Refer to Exhibit 11.3. What is the exponential smoothing forecast for month 2?

The following questions use the data below. Honest Al's Used Cars wants to predict how many cars are sold each month. He has collected data for 12 months. He needs your help in analyzing this data using moving averages. -Refer to Exhibit 11.1. What Excel function will compute the root mean squared error in cell C18 of the spreadsheet?

A technique that analyzes past behavior of a time-series variable to predict the future is referred to as

The following questions use the data below. A store wants to predict quarterly sales. The owner has collected 3 years of sales data and wants your help in analyzing the data using the multiplicative seasonal method. -Refer to Exhibit 11.18. What formulas should go in cells E3:G16 of the spreadsheet if the multiplicative seasonal method is used to forecast sales?

The following questions use the data below. Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using the additive seasonal method. The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data. -Refer to Exhibit 11.4. What formula should be entered in cell G12 to compute the forecast for time period 10?

The following questions use the data below. A store wants to predict quarterly sales. The owners have has collected 3 years of sales data and wants your help in analyzing the data. They want to use a quadratic trend model with seasonality to forecast sales. -Refer to Exhibit 11.24. What is the forecast for time period 13?

The following questions use the data below. A store wants to predict quarterly sales. The owner has collected 3 years of sales data and wants your help in analyzing the data using the multiplicative seasonal effects model. -Refer to Exhibit 11.5. What formula should be entered in cell E7 to compute the remaining expected levels?

The following questions use the data below. Honest Al's Used Cars wants to predict how many cars are sold each month. He has collected data for 12 months. He needs your help in analyzing this data using exponential smoothing. -Refer to Exhibit 11.3. Assume the forecasted value for month 13 is 79.64. What is the forecasted value for month 16?

The following questions use the data below. A store wants to predict quarterly sales. The owner has collected 3 years of sales data and wants your help in analyzing the data. He wants to use a quadratic trend model to forecast sales. -Refer to Exhibit 11.23. Based on the regression output, what formulas should go in cells D3:F14?

The following questions use the data below. The owner of Tim's Toys wants to predict monthly sales. He has collected data for 12 months. He needs your help in analyzing this data using moving averages. -Refer to Exhibit 11.13. What formulas go into cells B7:B9 of the following partial spreadsheet where data for periods 9-12 represent actual data?

As the number of periods in the forecast, k, increases

The following questions use the data below. Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using seasonal indices. The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data. The relevant regression output is in the following table. -Refer to Exhibit 11.11. What formula should be entered in cell G3 to compute the "Actual as a % of Trend" value for year 1 Quarter 1?

The following questions use the data below. A store wants to predict quarterly sales. The owner has collected 3 years of sales data and wants your help in analyzing the data using the multiplicative seasonal effects model. -Refer to Exhibit 11.5. What formula should be entered in cell F7 to compute the seasonal factor using the multiplicative seasonal effects model?

The following questions use the data below. The owner of Tim's Toys wants to predict monthly sales. He has collected data for 12 months. He needs your help in analyzing this data using exponential smoothing. -Refer to Exhibit 11.16. What is the forecast for time period 13?

The following questions use the data below. Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using the additive seasonal method. The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data. -Refer to Exhibit 11.4. What are predicted sales for time period 13 using the data in the spreadsheet?

The following questions use the data below. Honest Al's Used Cars wants to predict how many cars are sold each month. He has collected data for 12 months. He needs your help in analyzing this data using weighted moving averages. -Refer to Exhibit 11.2. What would be the forecasted value for time period 13?