Exam 20: An Introduction to Decision Theory

What is the potential loss for an uncertain state of nature called? ________________

Statistical decision theory is defined as the collection of techniques a decision maker can apply to choose the best alternative action.

The national sales manager for "I colored this" (ICT) T-shirts, provides all salespersons with the payoff table shown below, giving the estimated profit when a retailer purchases from 1 to 4 dozen T-shirts. The probability of demand for each state of nature is also shown. What would be the best decision if the maximax strategy is used?

If the expected value of stock purchases under conditions of certainty is $1,900 and the expected value of stock purchases under conditions of uncertainty is $1,840, then the $60 difference is called the expected value of perfect information.

You have a decision to invest $10,000 in any of four different companies.You estimate that the probabilities that the economy will be favorable or unfavorable, and you estimate the percent returns over the next year. What is the expected value for Company 3?

Which decision-making strategy maximizes the maximum gain? ________________

The manager of Paul's fruit and vegetable store is considering the purchase of a new seedless watermelon from a wholesale distributor. Since this seedless watermelon costs $4, will sell for $7, and is highly perishable, he only expects to sell between 6 and 9 of them. What is the payoff value for the purchase of 8 watermelons when the demand is for 8 or more watermelons?

The national sales manager for "I colored this" (ICT) T-shirts, provides all salespersons with the payoff table shown below, giving the estimated profit when a retailer purchases from 1 to 4 dozen T-shirts. The probability of demand for each state of nature is also shown. How many dozen "I colored this" T-shirts should be purchased to yield the highest payoff?

To compute an expected monetary value, it requires that ______________ are estimated for each state of nature.

Maximizers advocate a maximin strategy.

A person is trying to decide if they should buy a lottery ticket.The ticket costs $1.00.If the ticket is a winner, the prize would be $10,000.Knowing that winning $10,000 is not a certain outcome (state of nature), the person finds that the probability of winning is 0.0009.Based on this information, the following payoff table can be constructed: What is the expected monetary value of buying the ticket?

You have a decision to invest $10,000 in any of four different companies.You estimate that the probabilities that the economy will be favorable or unfavorable and you estimate the percent returns over the next year. Based on expected opportunity loss, what is the choice?

The manager of Paul's fruit and vegetable store is considering the purchase of a new seedless watermelon from a wholesale distributor. Since this seedless watermelon costs $4, will sell for $7, and is highly perishable, he only expects to sell between 6 and 9 of them. Based on a maximax decision strategy, what alternative is selected?

What is a graph of all the possible courses of action and their consequent possible outcomes called? ________________

The manager of Paul's fruit and vegetable store is considering the purchase of a new seedless watermelon from a wholesale distributor. Since this seedless watermelon costs $4, will sell for $7, and is highly perishable, he only expects to sell between 6 and 9 of them. What is the payoff value for the purchase of 8 watermelons when the demand is for 7 watermelons?

The manager of Paul's fruit and vegetable store is considering the purchase of a new seedless watermelon from a wholesale distributor. Since this seedless watermelon costs $4, will sell for $7, and is highly perishable, he only expects to sell between 6 and 9 of them. What is the payoff value for the purchase of 9 watermelons when the demand is for 8 watermelons?

The maximax strategy is an ________ strategy for decision making.

A person is trying to decide if they should buy a lottery ticket.The ticket costs $1.00.If the ticket is a winner, the prize would be $10,000.Knowing that winning $10,000 is not a certain outcome (state of nature), the person finds that the probability of winning is 0.0009.Based on this information, the following payoff table can be constructed: What is the value of perfect information?

In decision making, if there are one or more unknown factors, then the decision is made under conditions of uncertainty.

A student is planning a trip home for the holidays.The student has three options, car, train, or jet.The decision depends on the weather is either good or bad.In addition, the student estimated the costs for each option.The payoff table follows. What is the expected value of driving a car?