Exam 16: Time Series Forecasting and Index Numbers

A Paasche index more accurately provides a year-to-year comparison of the annual cost of selected products in the market-basket than a Laspeyres index.

A ___________ index is a weighted aggregate price index that uses the base period quantities as weights in all succeeding time periods.

A sustained long-term change in the level of the variable that is being forecasted per unit of time is:

Given the following data,compute the total error (sum of the error terms).

The following data on prices and quantities for the years 1995 and 2000 are given for three products.

A positive autocorrelation implies that negative error terms will be followed by negative error terms.

A univariate time-series model is used to predict future values of a time series based only upon past values of a time series.

When using simple exponential smoothing,the more recent the time series observation,the ____________ its corresponding weight.

Consider the following data: Time Demand 1 17 2 21 3 19 4 23 5 18 6 16 7 20 8 18 9 22 10 20 11 15 12 22 Calculate S₃ using simple exponential smoothing if S₁ = 18.6 and ? = 0.2. S₃ = 19.06

Increasing seasonal variation implies that the time series is nonstationary with respect to its variance.

Consider the following data: Time Demand 1 17 2 21 3 19 4 23 5 18 6 16 7 20 8 18 9 22 10 20 11 15 12 22 Using simple exponential smoothing with ? = 0.2,determine the forecast error for time period 1. e₁ = -1.6

A sequence of values of some variable or composite of variables taken at successive,uninterrupted time periods,is called a:

Cyclical differencing is one of the types of differencing used by the Box-Jenkins methodology.

Consider the following data: Time Demand 1 17 2 21 3 19 4 23 5 18 6 16 7 20 8 18 9 22 10 20 11 15 12 22 Calculate S₅ using simple exponential smoothing if S₃ = 19.064 and ? = 0.2. S₅ = 19.48

The linear trend equation for the following data is

Two forecasting models were used to predict the future values of a time series.The forecasts are shown below with the actual values:

The upward or downward movement that characterizes a time series over a period of time is referred to as _____________.

Consider the quarterly production data (in thousands of units)for the XYZ manufacturing company below.

Given the following data,compute the mean squared deviation (error).

The recurring up-and-down movement of a time series around trend levels that last more than one calendar year is called ____________.