Exam 16: Time Series Forecasting and Index Numbers

Based on the following data,a forecaster used simple exponential smoothing and determined the following: S₀ = 19,S₁ = 18.6,S₂ = 19.08,S₃ = 19.064,S₄ = 19.851,and S₅ = 19.481.

Suppose that the unadjusted seasonal factor for the month of April is 1.10.The sum of the 12 months' unadjusted seasonal factor values is 12.18.The normalized (adjusted)seasonal factor value for April:

Box-Jenkins models describe the future time series value by using a seasonal moving-average term when the SPAC dies down fairly quickly (at lags 12 and 24)and the SPC has a spike at lag 12 and cuts off after lag 12.

The ___________ component of a time series consists of erratic and unsystematic fluctuations in the time series data.

As you probably know,in a given week,the NYSE (New York Stock Exchange)is generally open from Monday through Friday.If we wanted to use the multiple regression method with dummy variables to study the impact of the day of the week on stock market performance,we would need ____ dummy variables.

In the Durbin-Watson test,if the calculated d-statistic is greater than the upper value of the d-statistic,then:

Using the price of the following food items,compute the aggregate index numbers for the four types of cheese.Let 1990 be the base year for this market basket of goods.

Consider the following data: Time Demand 1 17 2 21 3 19 4 23 5 18 6 16 7 20 8 18 9 22 10 20 11 15 12 22 Calculate S₁ using simple exponential smoothing and ? = .2. S₁ = 18.6

A time series is considered stationary if the statistical properties follow a trend of cyclical variation.

Which of the following time series forecasting methods would not be used to forecast a time series that exhibits a linear trend with no seasonal or cyclical patterns?

Based on the quarterly production data (in thousands of units)for the XYZ manufacturing company,the average seasonal factor

Use the following price information for three grains.

Consider the quarterly production data (in thousands of units)for the XYZ manufacturing company below.The normalized (adjusted)seasonal factors are winter = .9982,spring = .9263,summer = 1.139,and fall = .9365.Calculate the deseasonalized production value for each observation in the time series.

Consider the following data and calculate S₂ using simple exponential smoothing and α = 0.3.

When a forecaster uses the _________________ method,she or he assumes that the time series components are changing quickly over time.

The ___________ component of a time series reflects the long-run decline or growth in a time series.

The following data on prices and quantities for the years 1995 and 2000 are given for three products.

Holt-Winters double exponential smoothing would be an appropriate method to use to forecast a time series that exhibits a linear trend with no seasonal or cyclical patterns.

Consider the regression equation

The linear regression trend model was applied to a time series sales data set based on the last 24 months' sales.The following partial computer output was obtained.