Exam 16: Time Series Forecasting and Index Numbers

Two forecasting models were used to predict the future values of a time series.The forecasts are shown below with the actual values:

When preparing a price index based on multiple products,if the price of each product is weighted by the quantity of the product purchased in a given period of time,the resulting index is called ___________ price index.

All of the following are forecasting methods except:

The linear regression trend model was applied to a time series sales data set based on the last 24 months' sales.The following partial computer output was obtained.

Consider the regression equation

The Laspeyres index and the Paasche index are both examples of ____________ aggregate price indexes.

Dummy variables are used to model increasing seasonal variation.

Given the following data,compute the mean absolute deviation (MAD).

Box-Jenkins models describe the future time series value by using past error terms,which are called moving-average terms.

Periodic patterns in time series that repeat themselves within a calendar year or less are referred to as _____________.

Consider the quarterly production data (in thousands of units)for the XYZ manufacturing company below,followed by the centered moving average values and their respective periods.

Given the following data,compute the mean absolute deviation.

The linear trend equation for the following data is

Assume that the current date is February 1,2003.The linear regression model was applied to a monthly time series based on the last 24 months' sales (from January 2000 through December 2002).The following partial computer output summarizes the results. Coefficient Estimate Intercept 4.3 2.07 Slope 1.6 2.98 At a significance level of .05,what is the value of the rejection point in testing the slope for significance?

If the errors produced by a forecasting method for 3 observations are +3,+3,and -3,then what is the mean squared error?

Simple exponential smoothing is an appropriate method for prediction purposes when there is a significant trend present in a time series data.

Consider the regression equation

Consider a time series with 15 quarterly sales observations.Using the quadratic trend model,the following partial computer output was obtained.

A positive autocorrelation implies that negative error terms will be followed by _________ error terms.

The forecaster who uses MSD (mean squared deviations)to measure the effectiveness of forecasting methods would prefer method 1,which results in several smaller forecast errors,to method 2,which results in one large forecast error equal to the sum of the absolute values of several small forecast errors given by method 1.