Exam 11: Auto-Correlation

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The second iteration of the Cochrane-Orcutt method for AR(1)involves

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The autoregressive structure of the error term is the current-period error term and

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If a unit root exists,then

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The null hypothesis for testing for the presence of autocorrelation is

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How do you perform the Cochrane-Orcutt method for AR(1)processes? Explain.

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What are the null and alternative hypotheses for testing for the presence of AR(1)autocorrelation? Why? Explain.

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Autocorrelation is a problem because it causes the

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What is the potential shortcoming of the Cochrane-Orcutt method for AR(1)processes? Why is it a concern? How do you correct for it? Explain.

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Suppose you are interested in explaining variation in quarterly Net Exports (billions)and that you estimate the regression function (standard errors in parentheses) Net ort= -207.66+ 0.48 Exchange + 1.39 (42.31) (0.15) (0.43) n=116 =.9528 a)How many years' worth of data do you have? How can you tell? Explain. b)Do you suspect that autocorrelation might be present in this model? If so,what type? Why? Explain. c)How would you use the Regression test for AR(1)to determine whether autocorrelation is present? Explain. d)Suppose you know that the autocorrelation follows an AR(1)process.How would you use the Prais-Winsten method to correct for the autocorrelation? Explain. e)When using the Prais-Winsten method,how many observations will you have in your final analysis? Why? Explain.

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Why are Newey-West robust standard errors the preferred method for dealing with potential autocorrelation? Explain.

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Write out the model for an AR(1)process.Explain what it means.Repeat for an AR(2)process.

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Autoregressive error terms are potentially problematic because they result in

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How do you perform Prais-Winsten method for AR(1)processes? Explain.

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If positive autocorrelation is not present,then the Durbin-Watson test statistic will be

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You can determine whether a unit root exists by performing

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Suppose that you plot the residuals from a regression of Number of Wins on Payroll for the Dallas Cowboys over the last 20 years and you get the following Suppose that you plot the residuals from a regression of Number of Wins on Payroll for the Dallas Cowboys over the last 20 years and you get the following   You would conclude that You would conclude that

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Suppose that you plot the residuals from a regression of GDP on the unemployment rate and you get the following Suppose that you plot the residuals from a regression of GDP on the unemployment rate and you get the following   You would conclude that the error terms are You would conclude that the error terms are

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A simple method for determining whether autocorrelation is present in a given data set is to

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Conintegration is

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Suppose you are interested in explaining variation in monthly Ice Cream consumption (thousands of gallons)and that you estimate the regression function (standard errors in parentheses) Ice = 247.93+ 12.22+ 217.39 (98.62) (4.35) (81.63) n=192 =.9287 a)How many years' worth of data do you have? How can you tell? Explain. b)Do you suspect that autocorrelation might be present in this model? If so,what type? Why? Explain. c)How would you use the Durbin-Watson test to determine whether autocorrelation is present? Explain.What type of autoregressive process does the Durbin-Watson test work for? d)Suppose you know that the autocorrelation follows an AR(1)process.How would you use the Cochrane-Orcutt method to correct for the autocorrelation? Explain. e)When using the Cochrane-Orcutt method,how many observations will you have in your final analysis? Why? Explain.

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