Exam 18: Forecasting

Given an actual demand of 61,forecast of 58,and an Of )3,what would the forecast for the next period be using simple exponential smoothing?

A parameter of the exponential smoothing model which provides the weight given to the most recent time series value in the calculation of the forecast value is known as the

The sales records of a company over a period of seven years are shown below. a.Develop a linear trend expression for the above time series. b.Forecast sales for period 10.

Student enrollment at a university over the past six years is given below. a.Develop a linear trend expression for the above time series. b.Forecast enrollment for year 10.

Exhibit 18-1 Below you are given the first five values of a quarterly time series.The multiplicative model is appropriate and a four-quarter moving average will be used. -Refer to Exhibit 18-1.An estimate of the seasonal-irregular component for Quarter 3 of Year 1 is

The actual demand for a product and the forecast for the product are shown below.Calculate MAE and MSE.Show all of your computations.

Actual sales for January through April are shown below. Use exponential smoothing with = 0.3 to calculate smoothed values and forecast sales for May from the above data.Assume the forecast for the initial period (January)is 18.Show all of your computations from February through May.

Consider the following annual series on the number of people assisted by a county human resources department. a.Prepare 3-year moving average values to be used as forecasts for periods 4 through 11.Calculate the mean squared error (MSE)measure of forecast accuracy for periods 4 through 11. b. b.Use a smoothing constant of .4 to compute exponential smoothing values to be used as forecasts for periods 2 through 11.Calculate the MSE. c.Compare the results in Parts a and

What is the forecast for July based on a three-month weighted moving average applied to the following past demand data and using the weights: 6,4,and 2 (largest weight is for most recent data)? Show all of your computations for April through July.

The quarterly sales of a company (in millions of dollars)over the past three years are given in the following table. a.Compute the four seasonal factors (Seasonal Indexes).Show all of your computations. b.The trend for these data is Trend = 174 + 4 t (t represents time,where t=1 for Quarter 1 of 2007 and t=12 for Quarter 4 of 2009).Forecast sales for the first quarter of 2010 using the trend and seasonal indexes.Show all of your computations.

The quarterly sales of a company (in millions of dollars)over the past three years are given in the following table. a.Compute the four seasonal factors (Seasonal Indexes).Show all of your computations. b.The trend for these data is Trend = 185.86 + 5.25 t (t represents time,where t=1 for Quarter 1 of 2007 and t=12 for Quarter 4 of 2009).Forecast sales for the first quarter of 2010 using the trend only.Show all of your computations. c.Forecast sales for the first quarter of 2010 using the trend and seasonal indexes and write your answer below.Show all of your computations.

The time series component that reflects variability due to natural disasters is called

The following time series shows the sales of a clothing store over a 10-week period. a.Compute a 4-week moving average for the above time series. b.Compute the mean square error (MSE)for the 4-week moving average forecast. c.Use $\alpha$ = 0.3 to compute the exponential smoothing values for the time series. d.Forecast sales for week 11.

Exhibit 18-3 Consider the following time series. -Refer to Exhibit 18-3.The intercept,b₀,is

Exhibit 18-3 Consider the following time series. -Refer to Exhibit 18-3.The slope of linear trend equation,b₁,is

The temperature in Chicago has been recorded for the past seven days.You are given the information below. a.Produce exponential smoothing forecasts for the series using a smoothing constant of .2. b.Compute the mean square error for the forecasts produced with a smoothing constant of .2. c.What is the forecasted temperature for day 8? d.Is a smoothing constant of .2 or .3 better for the temperature data? Explain.

For the following time series data,using the naïve method (the most recent value as the forecast for the next period),compute the following measures of forecast accuracy. a Mean absolute error (MAE) b.Mean squared error (MSE) c.What is the forecast for period 7?

A method that uses a weighted average of past values for arriving at smoothed time series values is known as

A qualitative forecasting method that obtains forecasts through "group consensus" is known as the

Exhibit 18-2 Consider the following time series. -Refer to Exhibit 18-2.The intercept,b₀,is