Exam 11: Inductive Reasoning

Evaluate the following analogical argument: In Great Britain,savings of between 20 and 40 percent in costs have resulted from selling government-run programs and businesses to individuals and companies in the private sector.This argues well for the administration's interest in selling such U.S.government entities as the Bonneville Power Administration,the Tennessee Valley Authority,and various parts of the postal service. The terms of the analogy are not clear:Which (or at least what kind of)British programs and businesses were sold off? Would the sales be handled similarly (with regard to terms of payments,for example)? Would the government subsidize private ownership for a period of time after the sale? How would general differences in the economic structures of the United States and Great Britain affect the argument?

Is the following a physical causal explanation or behavioral causal explanation? "The reason she's not wearing that bracelet is because it reminds her of an old girlfriend."

Evaluate the following analogical argument: I like Fuji apples;I'll bet Fuji pears are good too.

Evaluate the following analogical argument: The stock market has made huge gains during each of the past four years.I'm willing to put my money on the claim that it will do the same this coming year.

Evaluate the following generalization(s),identifying sample,population,attribute of interest,and the extent to which the claims involved are knowable.Consider carefully the size and diversification of the sample and the extent to which the population differs or may differ from the sample;remember,what's important is that the sample be representative. Mónica is an excellent Spanish classical dancer.With a bit of practice,she'd probably be a fine flamenco dancer as well. This is not as good an argument as it might appear.Different art forms may be much more different from one another than they might at first appear.Certainly we'd like Mónica's chances better than most people's,but it's by no means a sure thing.

Evaluate the following generalization(s),identifying sample,population,attribute of interest,and the extent to which the claims involved are knowable.Consider carefully the size and diversification of the sample and the extent to which the population differs or may differ from the sample;remember,what's important is that the sample be representative. Memo:"We interviewed Haddow and found that she could handle each of the problems we gave her.I recommend we hire her."

In a prospective observational study,the members of the experimental group are exposed to the suspected causal agent by the investigators.

Evaluate the following analogical argument: "He won the Silver Medal of Honor,has a Purple Heart,and was an Eagle Scout.I find it difficult to believe that it was he who committed the robbery."

Evaluate the following argument in accordance with the criteria discussed in the text. I had a lot of noise on my car stereo when the engine was running,until I read in an old Champion Spark Plug publication that the way to fix the problem is to install a 4MH choke coil in the hot wire from the battery to the stereo.I did it,and it cured the problem.

Evaluate the following argument in accordance with the criteria discussed in the text. Do potassium supplements lower blood pressure? Evidence that they might comes from a recent experiment in which male volunteers with high systolic blood pressure were randomly divided into four groups.Three of the groups were given daily supplements containing varying amounts of potassium (500,100,and 1500 mgs).Men in the fourth group were not given potassium supplements.The men were free otherwise to eat what they wanted.It was found that the higher the potassium dose,the lower the average blood pressure. [This is a fictitious experiment.]

A)Provide an informal analysis of the following passage;or B)in analyzing the passage,do the following: a.Identify the causal hypothesis at issue. b.Identify what kind of study it is. c.Describe the control and experimental groups. d.State the difference in effect (or cause)between control and experimental groups. e.Identify any problems in either the study or the report of it,including but not necessarily limited to uncontrolled variables. f.State the conclusion you think is warranted by the report. Tiffany Field,a psychologist at the University of Miami Medical School,believes that it is good for premature babies to be given short sessions of body stroking and limb movement.She and her fellow researchers studied forty premature babies in a transitional-care nursery.Although the infants were stable enough to be released from the intensive care unit and none needed extra oxygen or intravenous feedings,they had required an average of twenty days of intensive care,and the heaviest among them was under four pounds.Their average age at birth was thirty-one weeks.Half the group was randomly chosen to receive standardized touch and movement stimulation for three fifteen-minute periods per day over ten consecutive weekdays.Treated infants averaged a 47 percent greater weight gain per day,even though they had the same number of feedings and the same level of calorie intake as did the control babies.The stimulated group also was awake and physically active a greater percentage of the time."Since the experimental kids were more active,their weight gain was not due to greater energy conservation," Field points out.Infants in the treatment group also outdistanced controls on a number of behavioral measures,and they were hospitalized on the average six days fewer than infants in the control group. -Adapted from Bruce Bower,Science News

A)Provide an informal analysis of the following passage;or B)in analyzing the passage,do the following: a.Identify the causal hypothesis at issue. b.Identify what kind of study it is. c.Describe the control and experimental groups. d.State the difference in effect (or cause)between control and experimental groups. e.Identify any problems in either the study or the report of it,including but not necessarily limited to uncontrolled variables. f.State the conclusion you think is warranted by the report. In 1960,Dutch researchers from the University of Leiden questioned 852 men and their wives about the men's diets and then monitored the men for the next twenty years.They found that the death rate from heart disease was more than 50 percent lower among men who ate at least thirty grams (one ounce)of fish per day compared with men who ate no fish.Just one or two fish dishes a week,the researchers say,"may be of value in the prevention of coronary heart disease." -Adapted from Science News

The claim "Fluoridated water prevents tooth decay," if true,implies that fluoridated water would prevent tooth decay in the majority of individuals who use it.

Evaluate the following analogical argument: From a letter to the editor:"Harry Kryshnah lost the last election because he supported handgun control.So now he's changed his tune and claims he'll be the first one to oppose handgun control.I voted for him last June,but I won't vote for him this time,and it's not because I favor handgun control.I just don't want a governor who can talk out of both sides of his mouth like that."

Evaluate the following argument in accordance with the criteria discussed in the text. Researchers in New Zealand discovered that the tiny dilly fish,which inhabit the country's fresh water streams,apparently get either excited or afraid when water flows increase.During the course of three seasons they noticed that the small egg-layers swim faster and jump out of the water more frequently when water flows were higher-the more water that ran through the streams the more dilly fish they'd find stranded on the banks. [This is a fictitious experiment.]

Analyze the following study according to the criteria set by your instructor: As reported in the Journal of the American Medical Association,26 surgeons-in-training were studied to see whether sleep deprivation impaired their patient-care ability.For 18 to 19 days the residents kept a sleep diary and underwent five tests each morning to measure cognition,visual and auditory alertness,and hand-eye coordination.Sleep deprivation was defined as less than 4 hours of continuous sleep in the previous 24 hours,which occurred in 89 percent of the on-duty nights studied.When sleep deprivation occurred,total sleep averaged 3 hours,and the longest uninterrupted sleep averaged 2.2 hours. Residents did show "trivial" improvement on two tests when they obtained some sleep just before testing,but the researchers said repetitive sleep deprivation did not impair the residents' test performances. The study "does not support arbitrary recommendations to limit working hours of residents," it was said. -Adapted from Science News

Evaluate the following argument in accordance with the criteria discussed in the text. Between 1984 and 1989,American consumption of oatmeal at breakfast went up 56 percent.Meanwhile,the consumption of coffee dropped 11 percent.For some reason,oatmeal must make coffee taste bad.

Evaluate the following argument in accordance with the criteria discussed in the text. Studies indicate that older women who attempt weight training seem to be in better shape physically than those who don't.This is a good reason for older women to lift weights.

Lin sends away for a hot-cold serving tray she has seen advertised.The tray is promised to keep hot dishes hot and cold dishes cold without electricity.Lin tries it out by placing a pan of hot beans on it.They stay hot throughout dinner."It works," she tells her husband. Is Lin using good causal reasoning?

Analyze the following study according to the criteria set by your instructor: We provided evidence that we could prevent myocardial infarction in angina patients,says Pierre Theroux of the Montreal Heart Institute.As reported in the New England Journal of Medicine (October 27,1988),Theroux and his colleagues placed 479 hospitalized patients who had experienced chest pains into four treatment groups receiving either aspirin,heparin,a combination of the two,or a placebo.Heparin therapy reduced the rate of fatal and nonfatal heart attacks by 89 percent as compared with the placebo.It also reduced chest pain by 63 percent.Previous studies of heparin treatment of chest pain have produced questionable results,Theroux says. Aspirin therapy also helped:The Montreal team found that aspirin reduced the risk of heart attacks by 72 percent as compared with the placebo.But the combination aspirin/heparin treatment showed no particular benefit compared with aspirin alone or heparin alone,and patients getting the two drugs combined had a slightly higher risk of complications,such as bleeding. The researchers recommend,for patients hospitalized with chest pain,treatment with heparin upon admission followed by aspirin therapy for long-term management. -Adapted from Science News