Exam 11: Inductive Reasoning

Evaluate the following analogical argument: A conversation: "You going to vote for Spankey or Howard in the city council election?" "Howard.As far as I can make out,their experience is the same,and they both take about the same position on the issues.But Spankey was a student of mine.I caught him cheating once."

Evaluate the following generalization(s),identifying sample,population,attribute of interest,and the extent to which the claims involved are knowable.Consider carefully the size and diversification of the sample and the extent to which the population differs or may differ from the sample;remember,what's important is that the sample be representative. ATLANTA (UPI)-A long-term federal study by the National Centers for Disease Control of 13 million U.S.births shows increases in the rate of eleven different types of birth defects,including a 17.5 percent yearly average increase in patent ductus arteriosus and a 10.8 percent increase for ventricular septal defects,over a fourteen-year period.The study was conducted by the Birth Defects Monitoring Program of the CDC,which collected its data from hospitals across the country.From 1970 to 1983,over 13 million births were monitored.[An adaptation]

Evaluate the following argument in accordance with the criteria discussed in the text. If you don't believe in God,you're much more likely to commit suicide.You can tell that by looking at places like Sweden and Norway where there's a higher percentage of atheists than the norm and their per capita suicide rate is higher,too.

Evaluate the following generalization(s),identifying sample,population,attribute of interest,and the extent to which the claims involved are knowable.Consider carefully the size and diversification of the sample and the extent to which the population differs or may differ from the sample;remember,what's important is that the sample be representative. A survey was made in 1948 in which a large number of names were randomly selected from the telephone book of a large city.The individuals called were asked whether they preferred Truman or Dewey in the presidential race.Over half of the respondents named Dewey,so the pollsters concluded that Dewey would carry the city and region.

Evaluate the following argument in accordance with the criteria discussed in the text. Paul Tullius kept records for over a year about his cholesterol levels and his intake of fats and carbohydrates.He found that his cholesterol levels seemed to be influenced very little by the amount of fat he ate,but varied directly with his consumption of carbohydrates.The more of the latter he ate,the higher his cholesterol went.Conversely,when he cut back on the carbs,his cholesterol level dropped back below his usual numbers.He concluded that it was carbs that caused his cholesterol levels to be so high for several years. [This is a fictitious experiment.]

Evaluate the following argument in accordance with the criteria discussed in the text. Every time I play tennis my wrist hurts for several days afterward.If my doctor can't help me figure what to do about it,I may have to give up the game.

Evaluate the following argument in accordance with the criteria discussed in the text. The price of a pack of cigarettes in Norway is $11.20,with taxes making up at least 70 percent of the total cost.Contrast that to the United States,where a pack sells for about $4.50.That's why per capita consumption here is 2,200,whereas in Norway it is 700.

Evaluate the following argument in accordance with the criteria discussed in the text. In an experiment,ten randomly selected women age 45-50 rated thirty randomly selected men of the same age as to attractiveness on a scale of 1-5.The men were rated on the basis of identical frontal face photographs.Researchers then compared the annual income of the men with their ranks.It was found that the higher a man's annual income,the higher his average "handsomeness rating." Do good looks enhance income? Or does income enhance looks (e.g.through orthodonture,hair styling,etc. )? The researchers said they did not know. [This is a fictitious experiment.]

A)Provide an informal analysis of the following passage;or B)in analyzing the passage,do the following: a.Identify the causal hypothesis at issue. b.Identify what kind of study it is. c.Describe the control and experimental groups. d.State the difference in effect (or cause)between control and experimental groups. e.Identify any problems in either the study or the report of it,including but not necessarily limited to uncontrolled variables. f.State the conclusion you think is warranted by the report. Does learning how to program a computer help first graders to think? Douglas H.Clements and Dominic F.Gullo of Kent State University randomly assigned eighteen first graders from a middle-class,Midwestern school system into two computer groups.The first group programmed an Apple II computer,using the computer language Logo,during two forty-minute sessions a week for twelve weeks.The other group received computer-based lessons in arithmetic and reading for the same time period.It was found that the children who programmed increased their scores on a creativity test in which they had to devise and draw pictures under time restraints and became better at identifying instances when they had not been given enough information to complete a simple task or understand how a magic trick is performed.However,a number of other tests provided no evidence that the programming experience can improve overall thinking abilities. The investigation was reported in the Journal of Educational Psychology. -Adapted from Science News Based on the report of this randomized controlled experiment,the extent and the nature of improvement seen on the tests are unclear.Note that the study was published in a respected journal.

Is the following a physical causal explanation or behavioral causal explanation? "The reason I can't get my printer to work is because I'm a mechanical idiot."

Juanita has taken six courses at Valley Community College,and she has a grade average of B so far.All the courses she has taken have been in sociology and psychology.She's thinking of enrolling in another course next term,and she expects to make at least a B in whatever she takes.Would you assess Juanita's argument as stronger,weaker,or neither if you knew that she had made a B in each of her previous courses and not just that she has a B average?

The goal of randomness is to

Analyze the following study according to the criteria set by your instructor: Women who take one to six aspirin tablets a week can lower their risk of heart attacks,according to a new study conducted at Boston's Brigham and Women's Hospital.The study followed 87,678 female nurses for six years.According to the study leader,Dr.JoAnn Manson,there was a 30 percent reduction in the risk of a first heart attack among women who took one to six aspirin tablets per week.Altogether,about 26 percent of the nurses studied took one to six aspirin a week,she said. -Adapted from an article by Judy Foreman,Boston Globe

In the following passage,identifying sample,population,attribute of interest,and the extent to which the claims involved are knowable.Consider carefully the size and diversification of the sample and the extent to which the population differs or may differ from the sample;remember,what's important is that the sample be representative.Do you find any flaw in our professor's reasoning about the usefulness of the survey for her own purposes? Should she believe that the more people who have home offices,the more likely her own will escape attention from the IRS? A college professor converted one room of her house into a home office and intended to deduct her expenses on her federal income tax return.She wondered how many other college faculty had done the same,thinking that the more who deducted home offices,the less likely her own return would be noticed by the IRS and hence the less likely she would be audited.So she decided to do her own informal survey of her colleagues to see how many of them had home offices.She sent out a questionnaire of three questions to all 1,200 instructors at her campus,and she received 950 responses.(Her promise to share the results of the survey apparently motivated faculty to respond. ) As it turned out,32 percent of her respondents answered yes to the question,"Do you maintain an office at home?" Half of these also answered yes to the question,"Do you deduct your home office expenses on your federal income tax return?" And 24 percent of the entire group of respondents answered yes to the question,"Is your campus office adequate?"

A)Provide an informal analysis of the following passage;or B)in analyzing the passage,do the following: a.Identify the causal hypothesis at issue. b.Identify what kind of study it is. c.Describe the control and experimental groups. d.State the difference in effect (or cause)between control and experimental groups. e.Identify any problems in either the study or the report of it,including but not necessarily limited to uncontrolled variables. f.State the conclusion you think is warranted by the report. Do sudden heart attacks increase with vigorous exercise? A community-based study investigated this issue and discovered that persons who habitually exercised vigorously had a reduced risk of sudden cardiac death as compared with persons who only occasionally exercised vigorously.One hundred thirty-three married men who experienced out-of-hospital cardiac arrest were chosen for the study.They were classified according to their usual amount of activity and the amount of activity at the time of the cardiac arrest.All appeared healthy prior to the heart attacks.The benefits outweighed the risks for men at the upper levels of habitual high-intensity activity.Their overall risk was 40 percent of that of sedentary men. -Adapted from "Stress and Health Report," N.T.Enloe Memorial Hospital Stress and Health Center,Chico,California

In the following passage,identifying sample,population,attribute of interest,and the extent to which the claims involved are knowable.Consider carefully the size and diversification of the sample and the extent to which the population differs or may differ from the sample;remember,what's important is that the sample be representative.Is it reasonable for our professor to conclude that faculty office space on the campus is inadequate? A college professor converted one room of her house into a home office and intended to deduct her expenses on her federal income tax return.She wondered how many other college faculty had done the same,thinking that the more who deducted home offices,the less likely her own return would be noticed by the IRS and hence the less likely she would be audited.So she decided to do her own informal survey of her colleagues to see how many of them had home offices.She sent out a questionnaire of three questions to all 1,200 instructors at her campus,and she received 950 responses.(Her promise to share the results of the survey apparently motivated faculty to respond. ) As it turned out,32 percent of her respondents answered yes to the question,"Do you maintain an office at home?" Half of these also answered yes to the question,"Do you deduct your home office expenses on your federal income tax return?" And 24 percent of the entire group of respondents answered yes to the question,"Is your campus office adequate?"

Consider the following passage: Julia sells exotic birds.She has placed four orders with wholesale bird supplier Papagayo Co. ,and all of them have been filled with healthy birds.Lately,however,some wholesale competitors have been trying to get her to order from them.But,when it's time to make the next order,she decides she's better off with Papagayo because she's pretty sure she'll get healthy birds.(Do not assume that you know anything about birds or the bird business. ) The premise-analogue in the passage is

Evaluate the following generalization(s),identifying sample,population,attribute of interest,and the extent to which the claims involved are knowable.Consider carefully the size and diversification of the sample and the extent to which the population differs or may differ from the sample;remember,what's important is that the sample be representative. Parker recommends the latest Larry McMurtry novel to Moore.Moore decides not to bother,since every other novel Parker has recommended turned out to be a dud,in Moore's opinion.

Evaluate the following analogical argument: According to a 2008 National Safety Council study,hunting has the lowest rate of injury of the 22 most popular recreational activities.Get this:Badminton,yes,badminton! Four times as many injuries as hunting.

Make this inductive (statistical)syllogism into a relatively strong argument by supplying an appropriate premise or conclusion:We're going to the home of our Italian friends,Marco and Claudia,for dinner.I suspect it'll be really good.