Exam 11: Inductive Reasoning

Make this inductive (statistical)syllogism into a relatively strong argument by supplying an appropriate premise or conclusion:People who go to Burning Man are not like you and me.Why just look at how odd Greg is!

In evaluating the following generalization(s),identify sample,population,attribute of interest,and the extent to which the claims involved are knowable.Consider carefully the size and diversification of the sample and the extent to which the population differs or may differ from the sample;remember,what's important is that the sample be representative. Let's say that according to statewide studies done in Montana and Virginia,the infant mortality rate for these two states averaged 10.5 per thousand live births.Could this figure be generalized to the infant mortality rate in the United States? What factors might be relevant to the generalization?

Evaluate the following analogical argument: Clark said gun control should not be blamed in situations when the user abuses the weapon."A gun is an inanimate object," he said."A plane is an inanimate object,but look at how many people are killed by them and they're not illegal." Clark said that he was raised on a ranch and has "run around with guns since I was big enough to carry them." He added that he has never shot anybody as a result of growing up around guns.

Evaluate the following analogical argument: The thing that worries me is that we're going to get bogged down in Iraq just as we got bogged down in Vietnam.The situations are exactly the same:It's us against a poor nation that is determined to win and doesn't play by the rules our military thinkers understand.

Analyze the following study according to the criteria set by your instructor: Dr.Dean Ornish,of the University of California San Francisco Medical School and Pacific Presbyterian Medical Center,wanted to learn whether lifestyle changes could reverse the progress of heart disease.At first,he found little support for his research,and several of his grant requests were turned down.Eventually he secured funding from private contributors. Ornish recruited forty-three men and five women,ages forty-one to seventy-one,all with very serious heart disease.A statistician randomly assigned the subjects either to a group that followed their own doctor's recommendations for diet and lifestyle changes or to a group that would follow a mild exercise regimen coupled with stress-management counseling and a low-fat vegetarian diet with no meats,poultry,or fish and with restricted intake levels of cholesterol and fat. Six people in this group did not complete the testing.Among the remaining twenty-two participants,eighteen showed reversal of the blockages in their coronary arteries after one year.In the comparison group,one person dropped out,and ten of the remaining nineteen developed measurably worse heart disease,while three showed no significant change.Six people in the comparison group showed measurable reversal.This was due,says Ornish,to the lifestyle changes they made on their own. Dr.Alexander Leaf,former chairman of the Department of Preventive Medicine at Harvard University Medical School,says,"For the first time,we have a carefully done scientific study that shows,even in advanced stages,this disease can be reversed with lifestyle changes." Ornish's findings have prompted sizable grants from the National Heart,Lung,and Blood Institute and other foundations. -Adapted from Reader's Digest

Is the following a physical causal explanation or behavioral causal explanation? "Oil will soon disappear because the supply is finite and most of it has been used."

Evaluate the following generalization(s),identifying sample,population,attribute of interest,and the extent to which the claims involved are knowable.Consider carefully the size and diversification of the sample and the extent to which the population differs or may differ from the sample;remember,what's important is that the sample be representative. A majority of Americans think that tobacco companies should be prohibited from advertising their products.In a survey of 1,213 adults,86 percent said that prohibiting tobacco advertising would lower smoking rates.The results of the nationwide telephone survey,conducted by American Opinion Research,Inc. ,were published in this week's edition of Research Fact.Spokespersons for the American Tobacco Council had no immediate comment on the findings.

Evaluate the following analogical argument: We have visited seven cities in southern Spain,and every one of them has a bull ring.I'll bet there's one in the next Spanish city we visit.

Evaluate the following argument in accordance with the criteria discussed in the text. Fund-raising director for a public radio station:"I know that our music director gets hysterical when we play a lot of tired stuff like the 1812 Overture and the Grieg piano concerto.But go back and look at our most successful fund drives;every big day has been a day heavily loaded with those 'classics.'"

Rank the following analogical arguments: a.Look,our stereo is a Panasonic and so is our TV,and we've never had any trouble with either of them.Let's get the Panasonic answering machine.Why take chances? b.Look,our stereo is Japanese and so is our TV,and we've never had any trouble with either of them.Let's get the Japanese answering machine.Why take chances? c.Look,Frank's answering machine is a Panasonic and so is Heather's,and they both say they've never had trouble with them.Let's get the Panasonic answering machine.Why take chances?