Exam 11: Inductive Reasoning

Evaluate the following analogical argument: Prostitution is legal in the Netherlands,and it doesn't seem to produce any terrible societal problems.I'll bet it would be the same in the United States.

When we generalize from a sample,we draw a conclusion

In evaluating the following generalization(s),identify sample,population,attribute of interest,and the extent to which the claims involved are knowable.Consider carefully the size and diversification of the sample and the extent to which the population differs or may differ from the sample;remember,what's important is that the sample be representative. Seventy-two percent of those interviewed at a luncheon sponsored by the Camellia Chamber of Commerce favored local tax incentives to attract new businesses.Would this finding generalize to the Camellia population?

Evaluate the following generalization(s),identifying sample,population,attribute of interest,and the extent to which the claims involved are knowable.Consider carefully the size and diversification of the sample and the extent to which the population differs or may differ from the sample;remember,what's important is that the sample be representative. FRESNO-In a new study of dangerous Halloween pranks,Fresno State University sociologist Joel Best has documented the exact number of American children killed or seriously injured by anonymously given,booby-trapped Halloween treats.Best reviewed supposedly real Halloween horror stories appearing from 1958 to 2004 in the New York Times,the Chicago Tribune,the Los Angeles Times,and the Fresno Bee.He did not find a single case in which a Halloween treat anonymously given to a child caused serious harm.He concluded that the infamous Halloween sadist is an "urban myth." -Adapted from a McClatchy News Service release

Evaluate the following argument in accordance with the criteria discussed in the text. Before every voyage,we toss a drink to the old man in the sea.

Lin sends away for a hot-cold serving tray she has seen advertised.The tray is promised to keep hot dishes hot and cold dishes cold without electricity.Lin tries it out by placing a pan of hot beans on it.They stay hot throughout dinner."It works," she tells her husband. What type of argument or pattern of reasoning is employed?

Evaluate the following analogical argument: Can I recommend a good mechanic? Sure-B&M Tuneup.I've been taking my car there for years,and I've never had a single complaint.Of course,I have an old Chevy,and you drive a Mazda-one of those rotary-engine jobs,isn't it?

Evaluate the following analogical argument: Six months ago,several of Molly's friends joined the Trimtime Fitness Center.Each of them participated in Trimtime's weight-reduction and fitness regimen.All reported substantial weight reduction,and all are visibly slimmer.Molly is convinced.She joins Trimtime and enrolls in the same program,hoping and expecting to see the same results.She is especially delighted to learn that Trimtime had adjusted its program to make it even more effective in a shorter period of time.

Is the following a physical causal explanation or behavioral causal explanation? "Her artistic immaturity makes her think that singers like Kylie Minogue are great artists."

Evaluate the following generalization(s),identifying sample,population,attribute of interest,and the extent to which the claims involved are knowable.Consider carefully the size and diversification of the sample and the extent to which the population differs or may differ from the sample;remember,what's important is that the sample be representative. Fong notes that the pavement deteriorates as he crosses into the next county."Guess they don't keep up their roads very well," he thinks.

Analyze the following study according to the criteria set by your instructor: A study published in the New England Journal of Medicine concludes that the number of handgun deaths in Vancouver,British Columbia,between 1980 and 1986 was less than one-fifth that of Seattle,120 miles to the south.Seattle's population is approximately 490,000,whereas Vancouver's is about 43,000. In Seattle,handguns may legally be purchased for self-defense.After a thirty-day waiting period,a permit to carry a handgun as a concealed weapon can be obtained.Recreational uses are minimally restricted.In Vancouver,self-defense is not a legal reason to purchase a handgun.Concealed weapons are not permitted,and recreational weapons may be fired only at a licensed shooting club. Dr.Henry Sloan,chief investigator for the study,said 388 homicides occurred in Seattle during the study period,while 204 occurred in Vancouver.The number of gun-related deaths in Seattle was 139,compared with 25 for Vancouver,he said.He stopped short of saying his findings prove Seattle's less strict gun-control laws cause more deaths,but said,"It virtually explains it." Note:New gun-control laws went into effect in 1978.Sloan said Vancouver's laws were made stricter in 1978 but didn't change significantly. -Adapted from Associated Press

Evaluate the following generalization(s),identifying sample,population,attribute of interest,and the extent to which the claims involved are knowable.Consider carefully the size and diversification of the sample and the extent to which the population differs or may differ from the sample;remember,what's important is that the sample be representative. NEW YORK (AP)-Women who read "bodice-rippers," a sexy,violent genre of historical romance novel,have sex 74 percent more often than nonreaders,according to a survey by two psychologists from the Emory Medical School in Atlanta,who interviewed 72 middle-class women in Atlanta,an equal number of them housewives,working women,and college students.Women who read the romances reported making love an average of 3.04 times a week,compared to 1.75 for nonreaders.

Is the following a physical causal explanation or behavioral causal explanation? "The reason she thinks Kylie Minogue is a great singer is because she's tone-deaf."

Evaluate the following argument in accordance with the criteria discussed in the text. Since the taxes [on cigarettes] have been going up in Canada,cigarette smoking has been going down,particularly among the young.The lesson here is plain:The best way to reduce smoking is simply to raise the price of cigarettes.

Evaluate the following argument in accordance with the criteria discussed in the text. See? When she has a good day at the store and sells lots of clothes,she always is in a good mood.It just shows you how effective a good mood can be in the sales business.The customer eats that stuff up.

Johnson is hired by a company to see if a new product,Topocal,will cause hair to grow on the heads of bald men.He recruits one thousand bald men,and randomly divides them into two groups:Five hundred (group A)rub Topocal on their scalps each day;the other five hundred (group B)rub a standard skin lotion on their scalps each day.After two months,Johnson checks to see what the results have been.He finds that there has been hair growth in 7 percent of group A and in 2 percent of group B.Given the size of Johnson's two groups,would you say that the results of the test are statistically significant?

In evaluating the following generalization(s),identify sample,population,attribute of interest,and the extent to which the claims involved are knowable.Consider carefully the size and diversification of the sample and the extent to which the population differs or may differ from the sample;remember,what's important is that the sample be representative. A New York newspaper stopped theatergoers as they exited from a performance of La Tragédie de Carmen and asked them whether they thought that Broadway theater was better or worse than it was ten years ago.When the majority of the respondents answered that they thought it was worse,the paper printed an article with the headline "Public Thinks Broadway Is Going Downhill." Does the poll justify the headline?

Evaluate the following analogical argument: Wolfgang has been to America,once visiting New York and once visiting Columbus.(Why is it always "Columbus,Ohio"? Is there another sizable Columbus?)Now he has an opportunity to visit New Orleans.Wolfgang decides not to go."Based on my experience,it will be awful-there'll be crime,violence,poverty,rude people,drug addicts-every kind of unpleasantness."

Evaluate the following generalization(s),identifying sample,population,attribute of interest,and the extent to which the claims involved are knowable.Consider carefully the size and diversification of the sample and the extent to which the population differs or may differ from the sample;remember,what's important is that the sample be representative. Osteoporosis is a degeneration of bone tissue that afflicts between fifteen and twenty million Americans and leads to approximately 1.3 million bone fractures every year.The condition is found mainly among women.A conference sponsored by the National Institutes of Health in 1994 reported that calcium was one of the "mainstays of prevention and management of osteoporosis." In a localized study designed to help predict the future incidence of osteoporosis in women in a midwestern community,a county hospital did a survey on calcium intake.It selected five hundred women at random and asked them to keep a record of their food and dietary supplements for one month.The data were analyzed to determine the amounts of calcium each woman received.It was determined that 85 percent of the surveyed women received less calcium than the recommended amount of 1,000 to 1,500 milligrams per day.County medical authorities concluded that about 85 percent of the community's women were getting less than the recommended intake of calcium.They also concluded that local medical facilities would soon see an increase in the number of cases of osteoporosis as the calcium deficiency showed its effects.Given just the information presented here,how much confidence would you have in these conclusions?

Evaluate the following generalization(s),identifying sample,population,attribute of interest,and the extent to which the claims involved are knowable.Consider carefully the size and diversification of the sample and the extent to which the population differs or may differ from the sample;remember,what's important is that the sample be representative. Seventeen percent of Winchell State students intend to pursue careers as computer programmers or analysts.That's what a recent survey of WSU students conducted by psychology major Jack Nafarik shows.Nafarik passed out questionnaires to students who voted in the March student election as they exited from the polling stations in the student union."The results didn't surprise me," Nafarik said."The figure may seem fairly high,but you'd expect that in a technical school like Winchell State."