Exam 11: Inductive Reasoning

Evaluate the following generalization(s),identifying sample,population,attribute of interest,and the extent to which the claims involved are knowable.Consider carefully the size and diversification of the sample and the extent to which the population differs or may differ from the sample;remember,what's important is that the sample be representative. Victor has just heard somewhere that regular injections of testosterone help improve the memories of men his age,but he can't recall where he heard it."Probably was on the TV news," he figures."I don't read the newspaper very often."

Johnson is hired by a company to see if a new product,Topocal,will cause hair to grow on the heads of bald men.He recruits one thousand bald men,and randomly divides them into two groups:Five hundred (group A)rub Topocal on their scalps each day;the other five hundred (group B)rub a standard skin lotion on their scalps each day.After two months,Johnson checks to see what the results have been.He finds that there has been hair growth in 7 percent of group A and in 2 percent of group B.What is the sample?

Evaluate the following generalization(s),identifying sample,population,attribute of interest,and the extent to which the claims involved are knowable.Consider carefully the size and diversification of the sample and the extent to which the population differs or may differ from the sample;remember,what's important is that the sample be representative. According to a study published by Dr.William P.Newman III of Louisiana State University Medical Center in the New England Journal of Medicine,physicians in Bogalusa,Louisiana,conducted autopsies on thirty-five youngsters ranging in age from seven to twenty-four (the average age was eighteen)who had died mostly from accidents,homicides,or suicides.They found that all but six of the young people had fatty streaks on their aortas,the body's main artery.Fatty streaks are the earliest gross recognizable lesions of atherosclerosis (hardening of the arteries),according to Newman.Since there was a direct link between the number of fatty streaks and the cholesterol levels in the young people,Newman recommended that all schoolchildren be checked for high cholesterol levels.

Evaluate the following generalization(s),identifying sample,population,attribute of interest,and the extent to which the claims involved are knowable.Consider carefully the size and diversification of the sample and the extent to which the population differs or may differ from the sample;remember,what's important is that the sample be representative. SUSANVILLE-Fewer than 20 percent of college professors consider themselves shy,according to a new study by two psychologists."We were surprised by this result because other studies have reported that almost 50 percent of adult Americans think of themselves as shy," said Elliot Smalley,professor at Colusa State University."College professors are sometimes thought to be an introverted lot and so we expected perhaps a majority to think of themselves as shy," he said. Smalley and his associate,John Mahmoud,interviewed 150 college professors who were identified by administrators at twenty-five American universities as typical faculty.The universities were selected by a random procedure from a list of American colleges and universities,Smalley said.

In evaluating the following generalization(s),identify sample,population,attribute of interest,and the extent to which the claims involved are knowable.Consider carefully the size and diversification of the sample and the extent to which the population differs or may differ from the sample;remember,what's important is that the sample be representative. Readers of Consumer Reports can write in their opinions of movies they have seen.Each month,CR reports the total number of opinion votes it receives in this way.In one issue,the average rating of a certain movie is 4 on a scale of 1 to 5,with 5 the bad end of the scale.The total vote on the movie is 107.How sound would a generalization from this sample to American moviegoers in general be?

Evaluate the following argument in accordance with the criteria discussed in the text. The only packages that suffered damage during the trip were the ones we packed with newspaper instead of that styrofoam packing stuff.I learned a lesson:Make sure you have enough of the proper packing material.

Evaluate the following argument in accordance with the criteria discussed in the text. When Halley's comet hovered over Jerusalem in a.d.66,the historian Josephus warned it meant the destruction of the city.Jerusalem fell four years later,thus confirming the power of the comet.

Evaluate the following analogical argument: The Patriots easily made it into last year's Superbowl.They'll have almost the same personnel next year,so I'm putting my money on the Patriots to be back next year.

Evaluate the following generalization(s),identifying sample,population,attribute of interest,and the extent to which the claims involved are knowable.Consider carefully the size and diversification of the sample and the extent to which the population differs or may differ from the sample;remember,what's important is that the sample be representative. Hamilton City was considering annexing a portion of land adjacent to the city limits where construction of a subdivision was planned.To determine what the residents of the town thought about this annexation and about municipal growth in general,the city council had a poll taken.One thousand of the city's fifteen thousand registered voters were randomly selected and asked three questions:(1)Do you favor no growth,modest growth,or accelerated growth for Hamilton City? (2)Do you favor annexation of the eight-hundred-acre Osborne parcel north of town and its planned subdivision? (3)Should the city enter into agreements with developers promising to supply city services,such as sewers and street maintenance,in return for the added tax revenue the developer's projects will produce? The results of this survey were taken to be the "official" opinion of the voters of Hamilton City.

If we want a narrower error margin in a generalization,which of the following will produce it?

In evaluating the following generalization(s),identify sample,population,attribute of interest,and the extent to which the claims involved are knowable.Consider carefully the size and diversification of the sample and the extent to which the population differs or may differ from the sample;remember,what's important is that the sample be representative. "In a study done by a University of Pennsylvania psychologist,29 suburban and 38 inner-city children from the Philadelphia area,ranging in age from 3 to 12 years,were asked to consume foods mixed with 'disgusting' substances,like apple juice stirred with a used comb or containing a dead grasshopper.Almost two-thirds of the children from 3 to 6 sipped juice in which a grasshopper floated.There were no differences between city and suburban children." -Published in Developmental Psychology Would it be safe to say,on the basis of this study,that the same percentage of all American children from ages three to six would be willing to sip juice in which a disgusting object floats? Explain.

Evaluate the following analogical argument: Hey,Coach! I know somebody good for our volleyball team.Her name is Stacy,and she hasn't played much volleyball,but she's a great basketball player.

Consider the following passage: Julia sells exotic birds.She has placed four orders with wholesale bird supplier Papagayo Co. ,and all of them have been filled with healthy birds.Lately,however,some wholesale competitors have been trying to get her to order from them.But,when it's time to make the next order,she decides she's better off with Papagayo because she's pretty sure she'll get healthy birds.(Do not assume that you know anything about birds or the bird business. ) If Julia had placed seven orders with Papagayo with the same result,her argument would be

The claim "Fouled spark plugs kept the car from starting" implies that the car would have started if the spark plugs had not been fouled.

A)Provide an informal analysis of the following passage;or B)in analyzing the passage,do the following: a.Identify the causal hypothesis at issue. b.Identify what kind of study it is. c.Describe the control and experimental groups. d.State the difference in effect (or cause)between control and experimental groups. e.Identify any problems in either the study or the report of it,including but not necessarily limited to uncontrolled variables. f.State the conclusion you think is warranted by the report. "Exercise can temporarily disrupt a woman's menstrual cycle,according to Boston University research published in the May 23 [1985] New England Journal of Medicine.The researchers monitored the daily hormone levels in 28 college women who did not exercise regularly and had a history of regular menstrual cycles.The women were then sent to summer camp and participated in a rigorous exercise program-an initial 4-mile daily run,working up to 10 miles a day after five weeks,in addition to three and one-half hours daily of moderate sports such as biking or tennis.Only four,three of whom were on a high-calorie weight maintenance diet,had a normal menstrual cycle during that time.The researchers concluded that,regardless of whether the women lost weight,strenuous exercise disrupted their reproductive function.'If very active women are having trouble getting pregnant,they probably should slow down intense exercise,' says exercise physiologist Gary Skrinar of BU." -Science News

Consider the following passage: Julia sells exotic birds.She has placed four orders with wholesale bird supplier Papagayo Co. ,and all of them have been filled with healthy birds.Lately,however,some wholesale competitors have been trying to get her to order from them.But,when it's time to make the next order,she decides she's better off with Papagayo because she's pretty sure she'll get healthy birds.(Do not assume that you know anything about birds or the bird business. ) If Julia orders more expensive birds in the new order,her argument would become

In the following passage,identifying sample,population,attribute of interest,and the extent to which the claims involved are knowable.Consider carefully the size and diversification of the sample and the extent to which the population differs or may differ from the sample;remember,what's important is that the sample be representative.Would our professor's conclusion,"Sixteen percent of faculty nationwide deduct home office expenses on their federal income tax return," be more accurate if she restricted it to faculty in her own state? A college professor converted one room of her house into a home office and intended to deduct her expenses on her federal income tax return.She wondered how many other college faculty had done the same,thinking that the more who deducted home offices,the less likely her own return would be noticed by the IRS and hence the less likely she would be audited.So she decided to do her own informal survey of her colleagues to see how many of them had home offices.She sent out a questionnaire of three questions to all 1,200 instructors at her campus,and she received 950 responses.(Her promise to share the results of the survey apparently motivated faculty to respond. ) As it turned out,32 percent of her respondents answered yes to the question,"Do you maintain an office at home?" Half of these also answered yes to the question,"Do you deduct your home office expenses on your federal income tax return?" And 24 percent of the entire group of respondents answered yes to the question,"Is your campus office adequate?"

Evaluate the following argument in accordance with the criteria discussed in the text. "Being happy and having a positive outlook may help people with heart disease avoid heart attacks and other health problems.Approximately one in five coronary heart disease patients is seriously depressed,so be on guard against depression in yourself and your loved ones." -Sharon Faelten,Vitality

Evaluate the following generalization(s),identifying sample,population,attribute of interest,and the extent to which the claims involved are knowable.Consider carefully the size and diversification of the sample and the extent to which the population differs or may differ from the sample;remember,what's important is that the sample be representative. Thirty percent of American women ages nineteen to thirty-nine diet at least once a month,according to a news syndicate poll released last November.These findings are based on telephone interviews with a random sample of women listed in the Los Angeles telephone directory.

Evaluate the following analogical argument: When Halley's comet appeared a few years ago,there was an upsurge in the number of suicides across the country.The same thing happened when the Hale-Bopp comet appeared in 1997.I'll bet the next appearance of a visible comet will produce a rash of suicides.