Exam 14: Time-Series Forecasting and Index Numbers

The annual multiplicative time-series model does not possess_______ component.

Instruction 14-20 The manager of a health fitness club has recorded average attendance in newly introduced Zumba classes over the last 15 months: 32.1, 39.5, 40.3, 46.0, 65.2, 73.1, 83.7, 106.8, 118.0, 133.1, 163.3, 182.8, 205.6, 249.1 and 263.5. She then used Microsoft Excel to obtain the following partial output for both first- and second-order autoregressive model. -Referring to Instruction 14-20,using the first-order model,the forecast of mean attendance for month 16 is_______.

A trend is a persistent pattern in annual time-series data that has to be followed for several years.

The Laspeyres price index has the disadvantage that consumption pattern in the initial period might be quite different than that in the current period and,hence,does not reflect accurately the current consumption cost.

Instruction 14-19 The number of train passengers arriving in Adelaide on the Overland on six successive Mondays were: 60, 72, 96, 84, 36 and 48. -Referring to Instruction 14-14,the Holt-Winters method for forecasting with smoothing constant of 0.2 for both level and trend will be used to smooth the wine sales.The smoothed values of the level and trend for 2004 are _______ and_______,respectively.

Instruction 14-4 The number of train passengers arriving in Adelaide on the Overland on six successive Mondays were: 60, 72, 96, 84, 36 and 48. -Referring to Instruction 14-4,the number of arrivals will be smoothed with a three-term moving average.The first smoothed value will be _______.

Instruction 14-3 The number of cases of merlot wine sold by a Barossa Valley Winery in an eight-year period follows. Year Coses of Wine 2003 270 2004 356 2005 398 2006 456 2007 358 2008 500 2009 410 2010 376 -Referring to Instruction 14-3,a centred three-year moving average is to be constructed for the wine sales.The result of this process will lead to a total of _______ moving averages.

The following is the list of MAD statistics for each of the models you have estimated from time-series data: Model MAD Linear Trend 1.38 Quadratic Trend 1.22 ExponentialTrend 1.39 AR(2) 0.71 Based on the MAD criterion,the most appropriate model is

Instruction 14-21 Given below are the average prices for three types of energy products in Australia from 2006 to 2010. Year Electricity Natural Gas Fuel Oil 2006 43.205 25.893 0.892 2007 16.959 28.749 0.969 2008 47.202 28.933 1.034 2009 48.874 29.872 0.913 2010 48.693 28.384 0.983 -Referring to Instruction 14-21,what is the unweighted price index for the group of three energy items in 2010 using 2006 as the base year?

Instruction 14-2 The following table contains the number of complaints received in a department store for the first six months of last year. Month Complaints January 36 February 45 March 81 April 50 May 108 June 144 -Referring to Instruction 14-2,suppose the last two smoothed values are 81 and 96 (Note: They are not).What would you forecast as the value of the time series for July?

Instruction 14-3 The number of cases of merlot wine sold by a Barossa Valley Winery in an eight-year period follows. Year Coses of Wine 2003 270 2004 356 2005 398 2006 456 2007 358 2008 500 2009 410 2010 376 -Referring to Instruction 14-3,exponential smoothing with a weight or smoothing constant of 0.2 will be used to smooth the wine sales.The value of E₂,the smoothed value for 2004 is _______.

Instruction 14-4 The number of train passengers arriving in Adelaide on the Overland on six successive Mondays were: 60, 72, 96, 84, 36 and 48. -Referring to Instruction 14-4,the number of arrivals will be smoothed with a five-term moving average.The first smoothed value will be _______.

Instruction 14-19 The number of train passengers arriving in Adelaide on the Overland on six successive Mondays were: 60, 72, 96, 84, 36 and 48. -Referring to Instruction 14-14,use the Holt-Winters method of fitting wine sales to compute the smoothed level and trend with a smoothing constant of 0.2 for both level and trend.

Instruction 14-19 The number of train passengers arriving in Adelaide on the Overland on six successive Mondays were: 60, 72, 96, 84, 36 and 48. -Referring to Instruction 14-14,plot both the wine sales series and the series of Holt-Winters forecast for 2011 to 2014 using a smoothing constant of 0.8 for both level and trend.

Instruction 14-3 The number of cases of merlot wine sold by a Barossa Valley Winery in an eight-year period follows. Year Coses of Wine 2003 270 2004 356 2005 398 2006 456 2007 358 2008 500 2009 410 2010 376 -Referring to Instruction 14-3,exponentially smooth the wine sales with a weight or smoothing constant of 0.2.

Given a data set with 15 yearly observations,a three-year moving average will have fewer observations than a five-year moving average.

Instruction 14-9 The president of a chain of department stores believes that her stores' total sales have been showing a linear trend since 1980. She uses Microsoft Excel to obtain the partial output below. The dependent variable is sales (in millions of dollars), while the independent variable is coded years, where 1990 is coded as 0, 1991 is coded as 1, etc. SUMMAROUIPUT Regression Statistics MultipleR 0.604 R Square 0.365 Adjusted R Square 0.316 standard Error 4.800 Observations 17 Coeflients Intercept 31.2 Coded Year 0.78 -Referring to Instruction 14-9,the fitted trend value (in millions of dollars)for 1995 is _______.

Instruction 14-19 The number of train passengers arriving in Adelaide on the Overland on six successive Mondays were: 60, 72, 96, 84, 36 and 48. -Referring to Instruction 14-14,the Holt-Winters method for forecasting with smoothing constant of 0.8 for both level and trend will be used to smooth the wine sales.The smoothed values of the level and trend for 2004 are _______and _______,respectively.

Which of the following statements about moving averages is NOT true?

Instruction 14-3 The number of cases of merlot wine sold by a Barossa Valley Winery in an eight-year period follows. Year Coses of Wine 2003 270 2004 356 2005 398 2006 456 2007 358 2008 500 2009 410 2010 376 -Referring to Instruction 14-3,a centred five-year moving average is to be constructed for the wine sales.The moving average for 2008 is_______.